Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Don]

Very disappointing cold spell so far and the maximum temperatures forecast for this week have also increased a bit! 

[Tim M]

40 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

I was out and about in Dudley this morning.  A huge black cloud . Heavy snow shower. Half an our. 2cm on the ground. Then the sun came out and thankfully it all melted away. I even commented to a lady walking her dog that I thought we had seem the last of it. Any way. All gone now. Let the spring begin. Had enough cold and dark to last a life time. Always hate November-February. Depressing horrible rubbish. 

Can we start a Chasing Spring thread rather than Chasing Cold ... Not felt warm since mid November here. At least the days are noticeably getting longer.

[NPA]

24 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Can we start a Chasing Spring thread rather than Chasing Cold ... Not felt warm since mid November here. At least the days are noticeably getting longer.

I'd love a "spring chase" thread

[Andypvfc]

5 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

At the moment, snow won't be how this spell is remembered (except maybe Cornwall/Devon?!?) but it will be for cold. ECM looks like some spots in SE and central England may not see temperatures above 1C within the whole 10 days of its run.

It is a really close call between a UKMO and ECM ending. Not a lot in it at D5. I doubt the UKMO will be that mild except in the west, though. 

Also, bear in mind always the magic of blocking to the east. Not 72 hours ago the models unanimously pushed snow and rain right up into N Scotland. Now it doesn't get past Bristol, maybe not even that. That's a 500 mile turnaround. The point being, blocks to the east have a way of baffling the models even at short timescales. Is it even inconceivable the deep cold will come back?

Tbh mate I wouldn't even call it cold. Yeah the wind might be cold, however a few nights close to just under zero in North Staffs is not the classic 2010.

That's why I just don't get the excitement with Easterlies. OK it may deliver more chance of Snow for the East, however little Snow for the rest and not even severe Cold.

 

[Andypvfc]

27 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Tbh mate I wouldn't even call it cold. Yeah the wind might be cold, however a few nights close to just under zero in North Staffs is not the classic 2010.

That's why I just don't get the excitement with Easterlies. OK it may deliver more chance of Snow for the East, however little Snow for the rest and not even severe Cold.

 

This being what I mean, minus 2 at nearly 2am, so even the cold isn't there.

[CentralSouthernSnow]

1 hour ago, Andypvfc said:

Tbh mate I wouldn't even call it cold. Yeah the wind might be cold, however a few nights close to just under zero in North Staffs is not the classic 2010.

That's why I just don't get the excitement with Easterlies. OK it may deliver more chance of Snow for the East, however little Snow for the rest and not even severe Cold.

 

Easterlies with a channel low is key  can deliver significant amounts to most of south. Depends where you live 

[Summer of 95]

8 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

The 850hPa temps are fine, but although cold 850s are correlated with the instability generated over the North Sea, they aren't the main factor that determines convection.  I reckon it's more to do with the lack of upper cold pooling and the relatively high thicknesses (516-522 dam in the north, 522-528 in the south).  I remember that in contrast we had an easterly in late March 2014 which had somewhat unremarkable 850hPa temperatures (around -5 or so) but an upper cold pool resulted in deep instability and there was hail and thunder from it around South Shields.

The current air mass is bringing just shallow instability.  For example, here's the skew-t for East Lothian, showing instability up to around 750hPa and then a dry cap:

While high enough to give sunshine and snow showers, the cap is limiting northern and central parts of eastern Britain to just light to moderate showers from shallow convection.  For the kind of deep convection that we saw in the easterly at the end of February 2018 we'd be looking for that unstable zone to preferably extend up to at least 700hPa I reckon.

I was thinking today that the clouds don't look very convective. Mostly more like stratus and stratocumulus than proper towering shower clouds. Could not even see any towers or anvils on the distant horizon which you often can in showery/convective setups 

[stevofunnelcl]

cold spell will be over for the south-west by next Monday, or a little before. 10c now being forecasted here, for next Monday

a hellava wind chill outside, under clear starry skies

[knocker]

"The hills are alive to the sound of music........"

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by knocker

[Azazel]

I agree with the spring chase thread.

This cold spell has been thoroughly disappointing for my region and I’m just impatiently waiting for spring and warmth. 

Roll on this weekend when the milder air moves in.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Azazel

[Flake news]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

"The hills are alive to the sound of music........"

 

I don't know if these posts are meant to be trolling, but I sense that the majority on here just want spring now too. 

3 months of high anomalies to the north have struggled to produce anything properly memorable for much of the country.

[Atleastitwillbemild]

Well I must say I'm really looking forward to this RAGING BEAST of a cold spell. - 3 degrees by night and - 0.5 by day. Somebody control this beast! There's nothing quite like a cold blast where the skies are a gloomy, gun metal grey, the same clouds prevent any frost at night, the wind prevents any frost at all and it delivers absolutely no snow! Unpleasant chill through your clothes, expensive to heat your home and nothing wintery or white to make any of it worthwhile! Hats off to you winter 20/21! You've done it again! 

It used to get down to - 7 here on the 4th night of a frosty high during the "dark" days of the snowless 90's. I'd take that over this pile of crap any day. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by Atleastitwillbemild

[Howie]

So this cold spell Will end with barely a flake if snow for many. What is over riding the ssw and other background signals? I can't believe this 

[snowspotter]

Third day of the cold spell here and people moaning it will be over by Monday . I make that nine days including last Sunday . If your in the west what do you expect from an easterly , blizzards from Moscow? Also unless I am very much mistaken Scotland has been snowy since December . Try telling people there it’s been crap. It could have been better for me yes . Further east have had loads of snow .but you can still not get me moaning about this cold spell. To be honest it’s better than the fabled 2018 beast from east event here . More snow for a start 

[78/79]

Had a couple of days of lying snow back in January, and now a reasonably cold week, so I'm fairly happy, starting back to work after my two month hibernation. As long as its  reasonably dry, and not pi... ing down  for weeks on end, I'll be ok with that. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by 78/79

[Azazel]

24 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Third day of the cold spell here and people moaning it will be over by Monday . I make that nine days including last Sunday . If your in the west what do you expect from an easterly , blizzards from Moscow? Also unless I am very much mistaken Scotland has been snowy since December . Try telling people there it’s been crap. It could have been better for me yes . Further east have had loads of snow .but you can still not get me moaning about this cold spell. To be honest it’s better than the fabled 2018 beast from east event here . More snow for a start 

It's been crap here. You can't change my mind.

[snowspotter]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

It's been crap here. You can't change my mind.

Yeah well it’s all out in any persons back yard I guess . I’d probably be unhappy if o had no snow . At least you’ll get some harsh frosts later in the week. Places in Suffolk reporting 38cm snow depth . Lucky sods ! 

[NPA]

Much more falling here now - big snowflakes slowly drifting down. Been going on all morning. A wall of white outside! I will admit it's nice to look at from inside, but I feel for those who are working outside or having to travel out to work today. Luckily am inside on a WFH training day. 

[Bristawl Si]

Shades of March 2013 in these parts; dry, cold, boring. Hoping for early arrival of a warm Spring, esp as the semi-house arrest looks to continue, with the health stasi calling the shots.

[Summer Sun]

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Agree with Matt Hugo, this is more like the Jan 3-6 period this year, more of 'kitten' than beast

[Timmytour]

The positive impact of this spell is that I won't be so awestruck in future by those individual perturbations that show in FI  a chart that is posted along with the comment "Wouldn't it be brilliant if we end up getting this ?"

For we are not experiencing such charts and it's all a bit meh in reality!  Beginning to think unjustified hope is a better feeling than delivery below expectation!

On a different issue, I really think, looking at the regional threads, that the South East should be split up into two perhaps even more threads.  You can post twice in quick succession and still find your posts end up two pages apart!  I know there's perhaps more action (and definitely more disappointment) going on in the region, but the number of people in the region and the huge diversity of weather being experienced makes me think it should be split up into regions of 1) within 20 miles of the coast, 2) north of the Thames and 3) south of the Thames! 

[Mark_p]

Cold but sunny in this part of the world. Easterlies never deliver here but at least it isn't grey like the 2018 'beast.' It's making me dream of spring though, we had our snow fix in December (sort of anyway.) The weather is so diverse on our little islands. As a personal moan I learnt to ignore the mad thread years ago by the way. It makes this place a much happier place to be on not listening to people shouting boom and nailed on at each other only for it to never live up to ridiculous expectations feels good to have a moan hah. 

[birdman]

Last Thursday it became clear that this cold spell was definitely going to be an event for predominantly the Eastern side of the county. So although a little disappointing for us lot further west it has not been entirely unexpected. From an IMBY perspective, its not been THAT cold and of course very little snow. Still had a dusting which is more than some! Personally I've not written this Easterly off yet as there is still hope and interest for me. But I bet the people who have been right in the thick of it have a very different opinion and for them I'm sure it's been very memorable! So it's all very subjective.

Half the problem was the ramping type posts in the mod thread which may have falsely set expectations too high for some people. In any case, this cold spell could still surprises for some and February is not over by a long way! 

[TheOgre]

It’s been snowing pretty much non stop for 2 days but there’s almost no snow cover strangely. We’ve already had 2 decent coverings on December 29 and January 24 so not bothered about this one.