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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

Absolutely stunning run and with ECM upgrading too surely were reaching a consensus on the jackpot zones Sunday-Monday BBC forecast looked awesome also mentioned it continuing into Monday which matches these charts pretty well!

Yes the SE is going to get buried .... cold and windy most other places with occasional wintry flurries 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Looks a bit cold and miserable this far south west.

Grim.

Hopefully that warm air bottled up in Southern Europe starts marching north soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Hi everyone, it's been a long time since I posted. After last winter's horror show across Europe and then COVID taking everyone's attention I ended up just lurking for a long time. But this winter has been different thankfully, some decent wintry outbreaks over here in Poland and now I see the fun is about to push west to the UK! So I thought you might like a quick live update. Here's the cold air we have waiting for you. I'm hoping it floods west as promised and brings you some wintry fun.

 

2021-02-05 07_51_54-.png

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

was hoping for a snowy upgrade for here but alas its even worse, light patchy snow on sunday at best, same on monday before rain and sleet arrives next friday, on the plus side there should be no probs getting the vaccine out which is far more important

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Posted
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
52 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Yep far to much pre hype yet again.

Nothing has really changed. South coast has always flipped from rain to snow. So the hype is justified for the majority of eastern UK. Hope it switches back for you though

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Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.

A proper beast scenario would present these temperatures as day maxima,not ‘feels like’ tasters.Let’s see if we do get deeper cold in then shifting it may take longer as next week end nears.

624748AC-1FAB-45E6-929D-7F46C72FE586.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

Just a big fat zero forecast for here. Ah, well, at least we can have a good old moan! 

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London

Some of the comments and replies to that tweet by the met are just so stupid.

 

It looks like feels -6 sunday through to tuesday and a big snow event sunday and a small ammount monday I take it wont melt until Thursday. then more snow coming in thursday afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey

Snap here,  chilly and dry which is the main thing. I would take anything over day after day of rain so 4 dry days will be much welcome down here on the hampshire coast.  By thursday its up to 7c and raining again....

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
17 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Oh god, they are going to be so annoying!

Don’t be jealous, be happy for others   

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Just now, lassie23 said:

i'm only predicted 6 inches of snow here........how disappointing

 

The fact people down south are getting excited by 6 inches of snow just reminds me how lucky I am up here. Not moving down sarth then  

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

The fact people down south are getting excited by 6 inches of snow just reminds me how lucky I am up here. Not moving down sarth then  

Don't move down here, it's rubbish

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Posted
  • Location: wigan
  • Location: wigan
34 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Great output this morning.
Especially for anyone looking for an extension/reload of the cold spell.

The last few days several members here, including myself, have been banging on about the models underestimating the resilience of the cold block and overestimating the Atlantic attack.
It's always a bit risky to go against what models and their ensembles are showing, but this morning we really do see the models moving towards increased Northern blocking and as a result, more resistance to the Atlantic lows.

We are talking about the edge of FI and beyond, UKMO does not go there.
EC Operational keeps hinting at stronger Scandi Heights at day 9-10, so that's good.

In deep FI, output wise we have to rely on GFS, GFS // and the ensembles GEFS and EPS.
GFS 6z shows an excellent example of a Scandi High, it did not do that before, so that's very encouraging (for coldies).
GFS // is available on and off, but it's last run had Scandi Height rises in deep FI too.
GEFS has some perturbations that stay cold.  I'd say: Watch how their company will grow. The majority brings in milder temps, but in this situation, with GFS's known weaknesses in play here, I would not take too much note of the perturbations that are even worse than their Operational run.
EPS has shown a significant increase in Northern blocking in FI, with a colder plume for De Bilt. That's what I watch with most interest. A large cluster has ice days all the way for where I live.

Pluim_5feb0.thumb.png.4392b923b2650b666cc1445d8ffc8399.png

I am still very confident that this cold is not going to be done with us very soon.
Even if some slightly less colder weather creeps up, I don't think it will last more than 2-3 days. The farther West you go, the more you are at risk of this potential warm up, but the farther East you go, the cold might not even leave at all.

Im a big Holland fan, as been across to Breda Ostende  Breskens, Rotterdam and Amsterdam on the ferries from Dover. I remember in 1972-3 We had heavy snow on the Sussex coast, I saw a young lady I knew, that I saw onto her London train to start her first job, being an au pare?   It was well documented at the time that Holland was a very snowy country in those times, and saw there was 10 inches of snow On Sciphol airport runways, meaning no flights for a few days. and Amsterdam was in a white out... seventies great for snow!!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
2 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

Im a big Holland fan, as been across to Breda Ostende  Breskens, Rotterdam and Amsterdam on the ferries from Dover. I remember in 1972-3 We had heavy snow on the Sussex coast, I saw a young lady I knew, that I saw onto her London train to start her first job, being an au pare?   It was well documented at the time that Holland was a very snowy country in those times, and saw there was 10 inches of snow On Sciphol airport runways, meaning no flights for a few days. and Amsterdam was in a white out... seventies great for snow!!

That's all before I was born, I only have my parents' photos of the Feb '79 blizzard snow around our house. I have only vague memories of the great mid-'80s winters.

It would be great to experience such winters again, and I really think a winter like the good old days is slowly getting within reach now. The patterns shown in the output do echo great winters of the past, with their multiple reloads.

I think Schiphol might very well get closed again Sunday or Monday.

Exciting times!

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

@AmatuerMet1963 @Cold Winter Night I love Holland too, but your discussion wasn't appropriate in the Model Output Discussion thread so I've moved your posts here. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

One man's loss is another's gain. This being more cyclonic is why the south is less cold but that in turn benefits the north relative to a Scandi High setup where we shut down before you.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

While everyone (down south) is waiting for the snow, take a look at this:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
3 hours ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

 

The fact people down south are getting excited by 6 inches of snow just reminds me how lucky I am up here. Not moving down sarth then  

I’d be happy to see 6mm of snow tbh!! 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

It is so funny watching the comments on the model thread as they watch each frame from every model and instantly either shout with glee or moan like mad. I suppose after 15-16 years on here I should know by now what to expect. Will it snow in my back garden, its not fair etc etc.

I suspect most children's playgrounds are less 'noisy' than the model thread at times.

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And then i look at the ukmo between 72 and 120 hours and winds are south easterly which means maybe not as much shower activity with drier air of the continent!!

Yes, substantial, notable and huge downgrades are unfolding at speed with every passing model suite for those not right near the east coast. At this rate even the likes of Leicester are going to be wondering what all the fuss is about. 

If these were Northerly winds, this thread would be calling 'Winter is over' - as London might see a flake, it's all stations go.

Really average event being signposted for a vast swathe of the entire nation as we speak.

Certainly not a widespread notable SNOWY event that some have been discussing. 

Huge disappointment after 2 entire weeks of micro analysis and what felt like 1 million hurdles to jump.

Let's hope for some later upgrades.

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It is so funny watching the comments on the model thread as they watch each frame from every model and instantly either shout with glee or moan like mad. I suppose after 15-16 years on here I should know by now what to expect. Will it snow in my back garden, its not fair etc etc.

I suspect most children's playgrounds are less 'noisy' than the model thread at times.

I've no idea why some of them have need of the site, or indeed any professional meteorological advice, since they're clearly far more knowledgeable than any amateurs like UKMO!

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