Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Arctic Hare]

20 minutes ago, birdman said:

Been said countless times, snow depth charts should be ignored. Nowhere near a timescale where they can be looked at

More or less T+0 here in any case, given this far west we'd need either a handy trough or some beefy showers being blown many miles inland. I'm fairly relaxed about it for my own sake, given my area has had a solid January snow-wise. But I really hope those who've been starved so far will be able to join in the fun.

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, yamkin said:

I have been following the CFS model very closely for a few months and must say it has been very good at times. Take a look at the low feature out in the west that could bring a lot more snow to S & SE parts late Wednesday/Thursday. Not saying this will happen, but worth keeping an eye on 

 

 

Now, going further afield into no mans land, a Scandi High forms allowing easterly winds to flow  Again, not saying this will happen, but something to keep an eye on 

 

Hello yamkin.. over the years you have shared snippets on the rare occasions contingency planners have been not8fed off weather events..

any such notifications to date?

[yamkin]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello yamkin.. over the years you have shared snippets on the rare occasions contingency planners have been not8fed off weather events..

any such notifications to date?

Hi there TSNWK, Croydon Council have been keeping a very close eye on the oncoming snowy events primed for Sunday & onwards. Gritting/gritters teams ready and ready for Saturday. Bear in mind gritters will be placed around strategic locations before the snow commences Saturday night. It's going to be a tough weekend into next week  

[Harsh Climate]

Here's my current take on snow totals

 

*Whole eastern side of England

2 Areas of interest:

*Yellow Zone- Area of snow moving south saturday night being replaced by snow showers, more frequent monday onwards!

*Orange Zone- A spell of snow pushing into south eastern areas sunday will expand northwards throughout the day eventually affecting as far north as midlands/linconshire, parts of south yorkshire. After that possibility of snow showers/ troughs or disturbances but too early to pinpoint.

These warnings will be updated as events unfold and will most likely be upgraded to amber or even a red in the odd localised spot.

SNOW TOTALS:

Yellow area - widespread totals of 10-20cm. ~Must be noted though where streamers and convergence zones develop we may be measuring in inches and not cm, I would not be suprised with totals around 30cm in a few places and higher ground as much as 45cm, early indications would have North yorkshire moors and Tan hill as the epicentres. As ever showers can be hit and miss, some areas will do well, whilst 5 miles down the road there is considerably less snow. Although 10-20cm widespread a few unlucky or lucky (however you see it) locations may ony have 2-5 cm) I'm confident though everywhere should see a decent covering.

And an extra side note - Early indications and fax charts show a convergence zone setting up shop north yorkshire monday afternoon. This area of intense shower activity could be a little further north or south, stay tuned for finer details. The beast is awakening!

Orange Zone - 2-15cm

An area of snow will spread out of france into south eastern england sunday and join up with the fragmenting band from the north, what we will see is a large (expanding north) band of snow spreading to the areas stated. Some places will see a good 12-24 hours of continuous snowfall, mostly light to moderate with the odd heavier burst but accumulations should steadily build up. Into kent and coastal fringes the temperature may be a little marginal, which could negate settling snow totals. This is still very much open to question, further data needed to be sure. I would have places like inland parts of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire as current hotspots for highest totals. There may be an isolated 18-20cm here.

After this band clears away and fragments sunday into monday showers and streamers should follow. At the moment there is no definitive indication of where these will be and how potent so more updates needed. 

[Harsh Climate]

Again from my weather page - Yes I've gone big haha

 

RED WARNING: 4/2/21 18z - 6/2/21 12z.

(Red Area)

Central/Eastern Scotland -

*Imminent danger to life

*Blocked Roads

*Cuts to electricity/essential services

10-20cm all levels

20-40cm 200m+

50-75cm 300m+

Could be some historical amounts of snow, only travel if absolutely essential, have winter supply's stocked in car if doing so.

(Orange area)

Other parts of Central/Eastern scotland. Southern scotland.

2-5cm Coastal fringes

5-15cm All levels

10-18cm 200m+

15-30cm 300m+

Stay tuned, more updates and local analysis as this major event unfolds.

[birdman]

20 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

More or less T+0 here in any case, given this far west we'd need either a handy trough or some beefy showers being blown many miles inland. I'm fairly relaxed about it for my own sake, given my area has had a solid January snow-wise. But I really hope those who've been starved so far will be able to join in the fun.

Yeah would be awesome if everyone can get in on the action. I'm definitely hopeful without getting carried away! Even some super frosty days would be great. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

56 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Dare not post this elswhere, but is it just me that thinks this easterly is trending the wrong way regarding snow fall, check out the 72hrs Fax for Sunday, the shower lines have gone...yesterday i looked at Coniston which was due 3 days of heavy snow showers on the Met app...now its dry?!

Nothing surprises me anymore. BBC weather app has downgraded snow for my area and is just showing a light dusting of snow for Sunday morning when earlier it was showing heavy all day.  

[snowblizzard]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Nothing surprises me anymore. BBC weather app has downgraded snow for my area and is just showing a light dusting of snow for Sunday morning when earlier it was showing heavy all day.  

Yes, radar/nowcasting period coming up next week!

Edited February 4, 2021 by snowblizzard

[Rammie]

Both the Met app, and the BBC forecast seem to have hugely reduced the amount, and duration of snowfall for the Midlands.

[SqueakheartLW]

32 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

oh joy, perfectly placed for no snow, lol,  but to be fair thats what been forecast for a cpl of days now, but, seriously, there is going to be some great snowfall for some peeps here, lets hope the models show us all getting in on the act during the week, everyones opinions make great reading.

You couldn't make it up could you. The most snow starved areas in the east of England in the region of no snow

[MJB]

45 minutes ago, Rammie said:

Both the Met app, and the BBC forecast seem to have hugely reduced the amount, and duration of snowfall for the Midlands.

SKL had a decent area of snow over the Midlands for Saturday night 

[Frosty the Snowman]

Snow prediction time..... 

 

Up to Friday 12th February at sea level near the coast for the respective region 

 

Highlands - 100-120cm

Eastern Scotland - 70-90cm

North East - 60-70cm

Cumbria - 30-40cm

Yorkshire - 60-70cm

North West - 30-40cm

East Midlands - 60-70cm

West Midlands - 40-50cm

Wales - 40-50cm

East Anglia - 80-90cm

South East 80-90cm

South West 30-40cm

Northern Ireland - 25-35cm

[stainesbloke]

12 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

Snow prediction time..... 

 

Up to Friday 12th February at sea level near the coast for the respective region 

 

Highlands - 100-120cm

Eastern Scotland - 70-90cm

North East - 60-70cm

Cumbria - 30-40cm

Yorkshire - 60-70cm

North West - 30-40cm

East Midlands - 60-70cm

West Midlands - 40-50cm

Wales - 40-50cm

East Anglia - 80-90cm

South East 80-90cm

South West 30-40cm

Northern Ireland - 25-35cm

Is someone going trigger happy with the zero’s Amusing

[Frosty the Snowman]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Is someone going trigger happy with the zero’s Amusing

This is the ramping thread 

 

In all seriousness whilst those snow totals are unlikely they are possible in that time frame with this set up. 

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

This is the ramping thread 

 

In all seriousness whilst those snow totals are unlikely they are possible in that time frame with this set up. 

It is, indeed! I guess we shall see, though I’d knock off a zero from your ramp figures and that’ll probably still be optimistic. 

[danm]

Is another Beast from the East on the way? - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Easterly winds are set to bring a spell of substantial and potentially disruptive snow to parts of the UK in the coming days.

 

[Frosty the Snowman]

25 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Someone will definitely post 40cm depth cause most can’t measure snow depth and bend the measure

Moving over here as has bot all to do with models. What's the correct way to measure snow depth then? 

[Kentspur]

48 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Prior to the February 2009 snow event, they were predicting 10-15 cm. South of London was quite widely in excess of 20-25cm.

I remember this well never expected 7inches in Dartford and as said by many on here the models can underestimate streamers as these are very rare particularly in the SE but can I just Say the input from Nick, Scott and Kasim etc is fantastic for us mere amateurs and that's what this model output discussion should be about seeing everyones opinion! Fingers crossed for our first snowfall in 3 years down here!

[rwtwm]

This model analysis lark is tough huh? I just spent a few minutes typing out my interpretation of the 12z runs, but when I went to get some charts to back up my claim, I realized I'd completely misinterpreted the 12z ECM! I'd recommend it actually, as even though I didn't end up posting anything (except this), it did make me look at the models more carefully. 

[SnowLover87]

9 degrees by Thursday BBCspot on 

[Winter-Chaser]

4 minutes ago, SnowLover87 said:

9 degrees by Thursday BBCspot on 

BBC app shows a high of 4 for London on Thursday?

[Maidstone marginal]

Beast from the east. No . Cold waft from the north east yes. Rember Feb 91. Minus 6 day max in south coast locations.  Just to put things into perspective

[stevofunnelcl]

showing back up to 5c on Thursday with a chance of a light rain shower, after 3 days of grey, max of 1 or 2c, and not a snow symbol to be seen. As expected, was not expecting anything here, just a short dry cold spell. Lowest overnights no lower than -2

It's probably been over-hyped

[CentralSouthernSnow]

as usual everything has been watered down knew this Would happen 

[DanDorsetUK]

34 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

as usual everything has been watered down knew this Would happen 

Yep far to much pre hype yet again.