Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[winterfreak]

26 minutes ago, MJB said:

We did well in that also Steve , you are in a great position this time for another dump .............of snow 

Steve?

[winterfreak]

32 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Fantastic. Wasn't it great. Lasted about a month from what I recall. I don't know if/where you can post photos but I have a great one from that spell.   

Somewhere. After our mum died my brother had all the photos. I’ll see if I can add to them this time round

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Steve?

LOL ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Christ knows why I typed that in ....................Dave lol 

'87 will certainly take some beating though , cold and snow wise 

[winterfreak]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

LOL ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Christ knows why I typed that in ....................Dave lol 

'87 will certainly take some beating though , cold and snow wise 

Dave?? Lol

[CentralSouthernSnow]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

LOL ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Christ knows why I typed that in ....................Dave lol 

'87 will certainly take some beating though , cold and snow wise 

Edited February 4, 2021 by CentralSouthernSnow

[winterfreak]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

It’s Steve M

It’s not though I used to live about 3 miles from Ash Green

[Howie]

Why would the models suddenly trend so milder for the south east at such a close lead time, getting on my nerves 

[sheikhy]

Fantastic 12zs!!all.over by thursday though on gfs!!!!over to you ecm!!

[Kreftysoton]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Even the GEM OP does have some snow btw, its less than some of the other models but I'm not sure you can describe it as no:

850hpa temps between -4 to -6c, dew points of -1c and temps around 0c.

For sure, not the big totals seen on some of the other models, but its still giving some snow for most of EA/SE.

Unfortunately some of us live in the extreme south on a coastal location. Latest feel is not great for sunday now, one thing we dont need in southampton is more rain. Rather just dry and chilly than rain and cold.

[Timmytour]

Just now, Griff said:

Gem going great... 210  

Phew!

[sheikhy]

Cmon ecm put this crappy gfs in its naughty chair!!!!the perfect run would be the snow coming into the east on sunday and then prolong the cold as well like ukmo!!

[daz_4]

Pretty fascinating stuff coming up. The line between cold and warm air will be hanging above my head. Surface cold will arrive as soon as tomorrow evening from NE. Local model is showing potentially disruptive event for Sunday with max. temp of -5 and rain for my city! Not really something you want in the middle of pandemic.

And the forecast for Monday is also fascinating. Max. temp of -8 in the north to +2 in the south.

Edited February 4, 2021 by daz_4

[JamesL]

8 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Updated my forecast from yesterday based on last 24 hours of runs. Taken into account small shifts on ECM and GFS in the nearer timeframe, with a wider area of snow possible on Sunday - decided not to be swayed by the GFS's very progressive take on the midweek front...

 

I’d pretty much agree with that going on what we know thus far. Reminds me of the old Countryfile summary at the end of the forecast

[CSC]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO has big time upgraded the snow threat on Sunday, looks similar to the GFS but no warm sector to speak of over the SE:

5-10cms across the SE, 15cms N.Kent and Suffolk.

@nick sussex that run is about the worst possible way to evolve out of the pattern. If its going to go like that, may as well have that first low further north so we can get snow out of that!

Confused when I saw their week forecast and it said ram for south

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO has big time upgraded the snow threat on Sunday, looks similar to the GFS but no warm sector to speak of over the SE:

5-10cms across the SE, 15cms N.Kent and Suffolk.

@nick sussex that run is about the worst possible way to evolve out of the pattern. If its going to go like that, may as well have that first low further north so we can get snow out of that!

6am Sunday, can clearly see the dry zone, cloud shield between front and showers, why I'm expecting no snow here on Sunday

[stevofunnelcl]

a hint of concern, as the GFS wobbles a bit, following the weather in the USA. Those deep lows are sure to fire up

the Atlantic, i'm not sure any cold Easterlies can be maintained. My money would be on the Atlantic to win, in the end

Just enjoy what you get... if you get anything

[Bradley in Kent]

1 hour ago, Howie said:

Why would the models suddenly trend so milder for the south east at such a close lead time, getting on my nerves 

Gonna be a bust again for the SE you just know it. That low pressure will dither over us stopping the cold air by which point the ship will have sailed. 

North Kent and higher ground for example might catch some wintry showers early next week. I just cannot see how those monster snow depth charts will verify though. 

I'd love to be proved wrong of course, but the track record in recent times hasn't been great.

Almost spring though!

[sparky1972]

going to be a huge bust here, sunday now looking bone dry, maybe a little snow on monday, then dry for the rest of the week.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

going to be a huge bust here, sunday now looking bone dry, maybe a little snow on monday, then dry for the rest of the week.

 

Agree about Sunday, but no way will your location be a bust!

[KTtom]

Dare not post this elswhere, but is it just me that thinks this easterly is trending the wrong way regarding snow fall, check out the 72hrs Fax for Sunday, the shower lines have gone...yesterday i looked at Coniston which was due 3 days of heavy snow showers on the Met app...now its dry?!

Edited February 4, 2021 by KTtom

[sparky1972]

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Dare not post this elswhere, but is it just me that thinks this easterly is trending the wrong way regarding snow fall, check out the 72hrs Fax for Sunday, the shower lines have gone...yesterday i looked at Coniston which was due 3 days of heavy snow showers on the Met app...now its dry?!

i have to say i feel this is going to be a 3 day chilly spell at best.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Dare not post this elswhere, but is it just me that thinks this easterly is trending the wrong way regarding snow fall, check out the 72hrs Fax for Sunday, the shower lines have gone...yesterday i looked at Coniston which was due 3 days of heavy snow showers on the Met app...now its dry?!

Aye but still looks like N Sea showers, trough is way off to the SE

Edited February 4, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[birdman]

Think people need to give the cold a chance to establish before worrying about other factors! There is alot of uncertainty even at this late stage. Sure this spell will bring many surprises! 

[KTtom]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye but still looks like N Sea showers, trough is way off to the SE

Certainly dont see anything to back up those snow depth charts which were banded around this morning.

[birdman]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Certainly dont see anything to back up those snow depth charts which were banded around this morning.

Been said countless times, snow depth charts should be ignored. Nowhere near a timescale where they can be looked at