Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

So a 3-4 day cold snap

 

Even 1991 didn't last that long! Atleast going by what I remember as a kid

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Weathizard said:

And the far south looks like missing out again, yawn. So many false dawns this winter.

At least our vaccine supply will be unhindered I suppose. ?‍♂️

Seen quite a few people on here mention that it’s always been borderline for the very south of the country. This has always been the case through the majority of model outputs we have seen. However, they are instantly shot downs as trolls?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

So a 3-4 day cold snap

 

these sorts of posts are not terribly informative. Not sure whether it is trying to be provocative or merely a cry for help...

There are a range of options on the table next week with the "worse case" scenario a breakdown for Thursday. But of course this could lead to some spectacular snowfall for some.

I for one will be very happy to experience some real cold weather and possibly some significant snowfall, even if just for 4-5 days. A protracted cold spell may not be in the country's interest this year, but I am looking forward to experiencing some really interesting weather without obsessing over the breakdown.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester
3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

So a 3-4 day cold snap

 

In a winter of many transient events, 3-4 days would be good. But calling it a 3-4 day cold snap, 3-4 days out from it beginning is somewhat puzzling.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Fergie believes the breakdown will be wed-thurs next week 

this is misinformation! He has said that there will be a "poss shift" on Weds-Thurs next week, but also acknowledged that models are often too keen to advertise this and the breakdown can be slower, snowier or just pushed back.

Edited by BurwellWeatherWatch
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol
13 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Fergie believes the breakdown will be wed-thurs next week 

I think if you read his tweet he said that the models are showing it could, however,  they usually break it down too fast

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol
10 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

this is misinformation! He has said that there will be a "poss shift" on Weds-Thurs next week, but also acknowledged that models are often too keen to advertise this and the breakdown can be slower, snowier or just pushed back.

Apologies..didnt read this. I've just posted the same

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
20 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Fergie believes the breakdown will be wed-thurs next week 

Bear in mind most of his posts relate to the south west rather than the U.K. as a whole.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
27 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Fergie believes the breakdown will be wed-thurs next week 

Sorry but that is wrong to say that - if anything I would suggest the below remarks from Fergie are supportive of some of our musings whereby we believe the models overplay breakdowns and correct south - I'm hearted that the pros considered it an option also

"Timing & evolution of how cold conditions are eventually overridden from W/SW is uncertain. Models *can* lean to this outcome happening too quickly. Current indications suggest poss shift midweek (Weds-Thurs), w broader potential for snow in SW/S England around that period."

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

 

"Timing & evolution of how cold conditions are eventually overridden from W/SW is uncertain. Models *can* lean to this outcome happening too quickly. Current indications suggest poss shift midweek (Weds-Thurs), w broader potential for snow in SW/S England around that period."

There we go, high risk/high reward scenario a possibility!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
31 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:

I think if you read his tweet he said that the models are showing it could, however,  they usually break it down too fast

This is exactly how I interpreted it. It seems lately we’ve had several posts misquoting or misinterpreting his tweets in here. He hasn’t said he believes the breakdown will happen in the middle part of next week, just that the models suggest that might happen but far from certain. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

The trouble of high risk / high reward is being on the wrong side. Last Sunday, it rained for hours, with the temp stuck at 1c

Not expecting anything, so won't end up disappointed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

One thing that I'll point out, and something which is touched on in Jo Farrow's latest analysis from today (linked below) is that in comparison to other very cold easterly setups this one (so far!) is lacking the very deep cold which determines what many refer to as a 'Beast from the East'. The north may tap into it but the south may not.

 

snowjomayen.jpg
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

An easterly flow will bring snow and much colder air with frost and ice into next week. Scotland is already being warned of wider blizzards and disruption by Friday but snow showers will spread.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
3 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Should I be getting ready for our once a decade deep cold spell here.

For those who don’t know, due to the topography and coastline around Central Scotland, Glasgow can do pretty well from easterlies. Almost ideal for us as far as snow is concerned, whilst our sheltered position sees us get some very cold temps. I’ve known close to -20 on a few occasions, wondering if while we have some snow cover this might be another.

I remember you had some pretty hefty snow depths from the easterly of late February/early March 2018 with streams of snow showers and longer outbreaks of snow moving east to west through the Scottish Lowlands.

My concerns about a snowy spell disrupting the vaccine distribution have receded to some extent in view of evidence that it would also be likely to disrupt the distribution of Covid-19 for the same reasons, (so having to wait a bit longer to be vaccinated, but in the meantime Covid-19 cases probably also dropping faster), so it's not clear that it would actually make the Covid-19 situation worse overall.

I am seeing stronger potential for the West Country to get a decent snow event out of this, but it depends on how the attack from the south-west goes on Monday to Wednesday next week.  It might go out into the English Channel leaving it cold and dry, or it could come north quickly as per GFS 12Z, leaving the West Country mostly with rain, but transitionary snow over much of Wales and possibly Cent S + SE England.  But this morning's GFS 06Z looked like it would produce a day or two of frontal snow across the West Country before the mild air pushes in, and tonight's UKMO at T+144 looks favourable for a widespread frontal snow event across the south, with the low possibly sliding east and no immediate arrival of milder air from the south.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
2 hours ago, matt111 said:

This is exactly how I interpreted it. It seems lately we’ve had several posts misquoting or misinterpreting his tweets in here. He hasn’t said he believes the breakdown will happen in the middle part of next week, just that the models suggest that might happen but far from certain. 

It looks like the jet stream will be cranking up so think the models could be correct here 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
2 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

Where has Steve Muir disappeared to?

He's no longer on here... Where you been for the last couple of weeks?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

Evening all,

A lot of talk about the weather after this weekend, in my view it doesn't look good owing to lots of precipitation around (rain or snow), both from the North Sea and a strengthening Atlantic influence. 

What we really need is a nice settled spell to dry things out a bit. Even a simple thing like going for a walk is a tedious task at the moment, routes cut off, very muddy and you're always at risk from being splashed by main roads. Also, the quicker we get these vaccines rolled out the better where floods or snow won't help.

Looking at the charts though I'm seeing lots of lines unfortunately!

Oh, forgive my pessimism, but I can't wait for the snow in the SE to not happen. Couple of 2c sleet days then a warm up to mild rain again...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I don't agree with this idea that a bit of snow will affect the vaccine roll out - other countries with cold climate seem to mange? 

No, but I have to agree about the wet & muddy walks, my local park is still totally flooded!

I love severe cold and snowy weather (not cold rain or sleet!) but this year I'm really looking forward to some dryer warmer weather conditions.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...