Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Don]

6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Standard GFS D5/6 wobble? Happens oh so often in these situations, it rarely snaps back, almost always skulks back slowly .

Mustn’t discount it though, the BBC (Meteogroup) are seeing next week like this, with SWerlies prevailing. It might well be on to something, it really is a very complicated messy one to resolve, but my money would have to be on the Euro combo right now.

A lot will come down to timing as to which path it goes.

Just watched the latest video on the BBC website and there was no mention of milder weather next week, only that it will be cold into the start of the week?  Was that an older forecast you are referring to?

[Cloud 10]

I bet the New Zealand thread is buzzing.

 

[summer blizzard]

Had a good chuckle at GFS being king. 

Models still looking good overall though caution advised as per GFS.

[Bald Eagle]

Crying with laughter about how gfs is wrong and this model this and this model that over on the model creche.... its a computer programme! The weather will do what it wants !

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

With so much going on in the 72-120 period, I think anything after that is guesswork!

agreed - even the groundhog would struggle with this and gfs - happy groundhog day to all - 6 more weeks of winter or not?

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[Flake news]

We'll end up with a compromise solution that brings slush for a few days.  No model will 'win'.

[hillbilly]

Cannot complain here,Cancelled work this morning as all roads have 80mm snowcover,the kids have gone sledging!

 

[Guest]

I actually can't wait to see this afternoons 12z's. I hope there's a massive flip and ECM goes down the GFS route. I just want to see the reaction. Still the GFS 06z buries parts of Scotland with over a metre of snow, not a single flake down here. 

[BARRY]

Well groundhog day in America says another 6 weeks of winter.

[Yarmy]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I actually can't wait to see this afternoons 12z's. I hope there's a massive flip and ECM goes down the GFS route. I just want to see the reaction. Still the GFS 06z buries parts of Scotland with over a metre of snow, not a single flake down here. 

 

[Bradley in Kent]

Well, the Met Office stats for Jan are coming out, I've attached the anomaly maps.

Now, if you said to me on NYE that Jan would be colder and wetter than average with much of it coming from the North and East, I would have felt very optimistic eagerly anticipating snow.

But, as anyone in the SE will know, January has been nothing but miserable. Here not even a flake has fallen

"Dear weather, please don't do that again, yours sincerely, Bradley"

Edited February 2, 2021 by Bradley in Kent

[Frosty the Snowman]

I wish people would stop saying this easterly is great for the North of England. It's an absolutely horrendous set up for anyway within the vicinity of Manchester or most of the North West 

 

Snow showers from that direction rarely make it across the pennines sadly making this a virtual non starter for this area. It's a great set up for the NE and Yorkshire, not so much the North West or Cumbria. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

This is likely to be my last winter in south Devon for a while.  As mentioned earlier I'm in two minds about a snowy spell due to the likelihood of a snowy spell slowing down the distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine, but I think the main thing I don't want is the double whammy of a near-countrywide snow event with this corner of the country missing out - then from a personal perspective I don't get any snow and the vaccine gets disrupted.  If I was offered a choice between a "beast from the east" this winter or next winter I'd definitely say next winter, but of course we don't get to choose what weather we get.

But this doesn't necessarily translate to not wanting the easterly to come off, because occasionally (as we saw twice in March 2018) this area of the country can get significant snowfalls when Atlantic weather systems engage the easterly air with the right angle of approach, or snow showers can make it all the way across from the North Sea as happened on 2 February 2009.  It's less guaranteed here than in the east of England though.  Thus, with all these conflicting feelings around it I am trying not to get too emotionally invested in it, and just hope that the double whammy scenario doesn't arise.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[Bermuda High]

Good update from met in outlook thread...

[Snipper]

Snowdrops and crocuses out here.  As much as I would like some snow I would hope it is a shortish period. I want to get on with growing stuff. 

[Bald Eagle]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Well, the Met Office stats for Jan are coming out, I've attached the anomaly maps.

Now, if you said to me on NYE that Jan would be colder and wetter than average with much of it coming from the North and East, I would have felt very optimistic eagerly anticipating snow.

But, as anyone in the SE will know, January has been nothing but miserable. Here not even a flake has fallen

"Dear weather, please don't do that again, yours sincerely, Bradley"

What a lovely month for western Scotland. Sunny, dry, cold.

[StormyLincs]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

I actually can't wait to see this afternoons 12z's. I hope there's a massive flip and ECM goes down the GFS route. I just want to see the reaction. Still the GFS 06z buries parts of Scotland with over a metre of snow, not a single flake down here. 

I’m getting the popcorn ready for this evening’s entertainment as I type. It’s far better than the soaps on the tele. 

[birdman]

Seems the MAD thread is on the verge of meltdown. Happens from one run to the next almost everyday. Then you get the pleas for calm and logic which immediately goes out the window along with toys. Rinse and repeat as they keep on saying lol

[snowblizzard]

2 hours ago, BARRY said:

Well groundhog day in America says another 6 weeks of winter.

So, that's probably curtains for us in UK!  

[Badgers01]

2 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Well, the Met Office stats for Jan are coming out, I've attached the anomaly maps.

Now, if you said to me on NYE that Jan would be colder and wetter than average with much of it coming from the North and East, I would have felt very optimistic eagerly anticipating snow.

But, as anyone in the SE will know, January has been nothing but miserable. Here not even a flake has fallen

"Dear weather, please don't do that again, yours sincerely, Bradley"

It’s been an awful winter month in Surrey the wet and cool but not snowy conditions have been really bleak ! And the mud we should have a mud index ! 

[al78]

5 hours ago, Bald Eagle said:

Crying with laughter about how gfs is wrong and this model this and this model that over on the model creche.... its a computer programme! The weather will do what it wants !

No, it is bounded by the laws of physics, the Navier Stokes equations beaing amongst them, which computer programmes aim to approximate in order to predict the weather. They do a decent job up to nearly a week ahead.

It is the same on weather forums across the web, thunderous orgasms whenever a couple of models suggest a freezing spell with heavy snow ten or 15 days ahead, with apparently no regard for model skill at those lead times.

[Simon M]

It hasn't been a bad winter here for me personally, some decent falls of snow and some decent cold spells.  Now the question is can we squeeze any more cold out of February before Spring sets in?  As far as I see it we have around 4-6 weeks of usable winter left.  

[Flake news]

1 hour ago, birdman said:

Seems the MAD thread is on the verge of meltdown. Happens from one run to the next almost everyday. Then you get the pleas for calm and logic which immediately goes out the window along with toys. Rinse and repeat as they keep on saying lol

It makes me laugh how people sometimes post a chart from like t=+6h then just write "much better!".  It's all very confusing sometimes.

[birdman]

4 minutes ago, apophenia said:

It makes me laugh how people sometimes post a chart from like t=+6h then just write "much better!".  It's all very confusing sometimes.

I'm not that great with charts but try and glean what I can from the helpful posts but Ive just read the last page and some on there are just making it an IMBY confusing mess lol.