Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Summer of 95]

22 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Agree 100%

Most of the really cold spells I can remember have been with heights around Iceland or even better when linked to Scandi heights.

I mentioned somewhere on here a few years ago: the "Faeroes High" is gold dust or should it be cold dust. Brings air from Lapland/N Russia/Arctic Ocean instead of central Europe which isn't always cold enough. Wipes the Icelandic Low off the map. Sinks into the mid-Atlantic hence a N-ly flow, instead of Bartlettland. Doesn't have the Scandi high's habit of getting stuck just too far east, or the Greenland's one of getting stuck too far west. Its annoyingly rare but when it turns up...

 

[StormyLincs]

There seems to be a lot of foaming at the mouth about how the ECM has flipped to the other models today, so I thought I’d have a look. To my untrained eye it doesn’t look that great at all. That pesky low to the south still doesn’t want to clear away until FI and as soon as it does the cold block is immediately under attack from the SW. Now I don’t know whether the milder air would win out, but from where I’m standing it looks like a pretty potent thrust northeastwards. All the usual caveats of course, it’s FI, more runs needed etc etc etc. 

[summer blizzard]

33 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

There seems to be a lot of foaming at the mouth about how the ECM has flipped to the other models today, so I thought I’d have a look. To my untrained eye it doesn’t look that great at all. That pesky low to the south still doesn’t want to clear away until FI and as soon as it does the cold block is immediately under attack from the SW. Now I don’t know whether the milder air would win out, but from where I’m standing it looks like a pretty potent thrust northeastwards. All the usual caveats of course, it’s FI, more runs needed etc etc etc. 

This. The Euro does not really bring in the easterly for England (even me) until Monday and has them for all of two days (though the low undercuts at day 10).

The GFS6z is simply a variation of that evolution.

[knocker]

Never mind the vaccine, I am reliable informed that the supply of Prozac is tittering on a knife edge.

[StormyLincs]

18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

This. The Euro does not really bring in the easterly for England (even me) until Monday and has them for all of two days (though the low undercuts at day 10).

The GFS6z is simply a variation of that evolution.

I noticed the GFS 6z seemed to be going along the same lines. I remain very concerned that this cold spell will only last a few days or may not even happen at all. 

[StormyLincs]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Never mind the vaccine, I am reliable informed that the supply of Prozac is tittering on a knife edge.

I hope The Samaritans have got plenty of staff on standby.

[Valleyboy]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes true, but it could also fire waa up greenland and enforce a greenland ridge, it's not as simple as USA extreme cold equals a rampant jet towards us.

The problem is a Greenland high isn’t a guarantee of cold weather, some members believe it’s the holy grail.  What we need is a Scandi high.  

[Battleground Snow]

16 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

The problem is a Greenland high isn’t a guarantee of cold weather, some members believe it’s the holy grail.  What we need is a Scandi high.  

Or both at the same time 

[Duane S.]

18 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

The problem is a Greenland high isn’t a guarantee of cold weather, some members believe it’s the holy grail.  What we need is a Scandi high.  

By the same token nor is a Scandi High any guarantee (i'm thinking the dreaded 'no mans land' scenario for one). I'd wager Scandi highs probably produce way less than a proper Greenland High.

[SLEETY]

Met  dont think deep cold is arriving then,with latest update just mentions wintry showers off the east coast,giving up soon on this winter..

[Valleyboy]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

By the same token nor is a Scandi High any guarantee (i'm thinking the dreaded 'no mans land' scenario for one). I'd wager Scandi highs probably produce way less than a proper Greenland High.

Not true, you are probably thinking of a Russian high, which can be a party spoiler.  If you look at history, you will find Scandi highs are generally involved in Uk winter freeze ups.

[Duane S.]

17 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:

Not true, you are probably thinking of a Russian high, which can be a party spoiler.  If you look at history, you will find Scandi highs are generally involved in Uk winter freeze ups.

 Scandi Highs are more common than Greenland Highs (not those common surface features, actual blocks). Therefore, it would be correct to say that there probably have indeed been more instances that they have been involved in UK Winter Freeze ups. Although much rarer I'd say GL Highs produce more times as a ratio, that was my point.

Anyway, an Icelandic High is probably better than both

[danm]

 

[stevofunnelcl]

Looks total pantz for the south-west - staying mild longest. Snow really builds up across North-Central-North-East Scotland

Low eventually comes south, and brings the cold air with it, some snow coming south, with east winds, most of the snow will of course be over in the East

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

By the same token nor is a Scandi High any guarantee (i'm thinking the dreaded 'no mans land' scenario for one). I'd wager Scandi highs probably produce way less than a proper Greenland High.

This. People forget just how many times we've had dry SE/ESE or 1040m Scandi Hugh's producing no precipitation.

Scandi High's are usually better for snow but Greenland High's are better for sustained cold.

[Snowyowl9]

6 hours ago, apophenia said:

That says more about the last 10 Januaries than it does about this one.

January 2013 was the other snowy easterly.

[Froze were the Days]

What's going on in the mod thread and the GFS 12z...I'll believe it when I see it!! UKMO still good at D6 but not the monumental blizzards the the GFS is showing. Good to see the GFS get back on side though.

[cobbett]

Spectacular 12z runs so far - the only moan i can have is that subsequent operational runs will inevitably be a downgrade from this set. Still think we are in for a decent cold spell but await the tantrums tomorrow as snowmeggadon charts get watered down 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

January 2013 was the other snowy easterly.

Jan 13 actually got 90% of the snow from attacking fronts. In shower terms (i.e. the normal easterly snow) it was a flop.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like flooding in places this week. River levels have already reached the lower path in places in Old Windsor!

[Snowyowl9]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Jan 13 actually got 90% of the snow from attacking fronts. In shower terms (i.e. the normal easterly snow) it was a flop.

Well battleground snow its still far far better than what we ve been normally getting,just been looking at those charts,one looked very much like February 1996 battle.

[Matt H]

How it started vs how it’s going.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

How it started vs how it’s going.

 

Great Helen Willets loves the cold and snow . Hopefully a good sign , she’s much better than some of the mild rampers on the BBC .  Come the revolution all the At Least It Will Be Mild Brigade will be sent to the back office  , only cold and snow lovers will be allowed to do winter bulletins ! 

[summer blizzard]

25 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Well battleground snow its still far far better than what we ve been normally getting,just been looking at those charts,one looked very much like February 1996 battle.

Oh I agree it was brilliant. 

At my parents we had snow on the ground for two weeks and 16cm max depth even before the final front (sadly by the time I got to measure it was in thaw mode about 48 hours after). My third highest depth in the last 19 years (01 I never measured as was too young and it was snowy so I only go back to 02).

I actually preferred the Jan to March, dullness aside.

[yido]

Can't believe I'm saying this but my God I'm hoping none of these snowy charts come off. The effect this will have on the vaccine roll-out at such an important time is unthinkable. Safe to say that very few people on here will be agreeing with me but this really would be a disaster!