Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[stevofunnelcl]

early hours of last sunday, when the air was (just) cold enough for a bit of wet snow, the precip band was narrow and fragmented.

Of course, this evening, with the temp at 8c, the incoming band, is massively wide, and persistent... back to the soggy land, and a land of drips. The gutters drip a lot outside, and a drain is blocked outside

[Don]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The models seem to have lost their satnav ... all become a bit of a mess after seeming to be converging on a broad solution yesterday

the eps suite has six mainly even clusters in the 8/10 day period - no getting away from the slow drift away from deep cold 

the gefs were a bit of a curates egg too 

suggest some deep breaths and see what the 00z bring 

The plain truth is we just cannot seem to quite pull it off this winter and I'm starting to think February will be no different!

[Bricriu]

Just now, Don said:

The plain truth is we just cannot seem to quite pull it off this winter and I'm starting to think February will be no different!

A teaser winter thus far if ever there was one!

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

The plain truth is we just cannot seem to quite pull it off this winter and I'm starting to think February will be no different!

What goes up can still go down .......... swings and roundabouts ....

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Did the climate change experts predict soggy wet winters and long hot summers? Well we get soggy wet winters , soggy wet summers and soggy wet autumns.  With the occasional half decent April thrown in. 

[jayb1989]

I was just reading through the model discussion thread.. like the blind leading the blind in there.. most of them haven’t got a clue, just endlessly chasing day 10 charts as if they are gospel.. half of the folk couldn’t tell you whether it was raining if they were wet through, stood outside and looking up at the sky

Edited January 29, 2021 by jayb1989

[StormyLincs]

1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

I was just reading through the model discussion thread.. like the blind leading the blind in there.. most of them haven’t got a clue, just endlessly chasing day 10 charts as if they are gospel.. half of the folk couldn’t tell you whether it was raining if they were wet through, stood outside and looking up at the sky

Love it!

[78/79]

10 hours ago, YellowSnow said:

Love it!

Once upon a time you watched the Farmers forecast on Country file which was aired on a Sunday lunchtime. If cold weather was forecast, you just waited to see if it came off. These days, every model run is dissected, its like going to a sadistic dentist, and having a tooth pulled over a 10 day period. 

[Flake news]

6 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Once upon a time you watched the Farmers forecast on Country file which was aired on a Sunday lunchtime. If cold weather was forecast, you just waited to see if it came off. These days, every model run is dissected, its like going to a sadistic dentist, and having a tooth pulled over a 10 day period. 

I remember as a kid buying the Sunday TImes for its 5 day forecast complete with pressure charts.  Highlight of the week for me.

[snowblizzard]

Surely, it's obvious that no one actually knows what is going to happen regarding the evolution during the next 10 days?

It's an extremely complicated set up which could go one of several ways.

But it's becoming rather tedious now constantly chasing mouth watering charts at 10 days +

My feeling is that it will turn colder towards the end of next week, many of the ensembles are indicating a fall in temperature for 3-4 days.

But, I think the odds on a protracted severe cold/snowy spell remain fairly low!

Despite a very favourable NH pattern, it seems more difficult than ever to get severe cold across the entire UK!  

Edited January 30, 2021 by snowblizzard

[northwestsnow]

You just know the least desirable model will be the winner...

 

[StormyLincs]

6 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Once upon a time you watched the Farmers forecast on Country file which was aired on a Sunday lunchtime. If cold weather was forecast, you just waited to see if it came off. These days, every model run is dissected, its like going to a sadistic dentist, and having a tooth pulled over a 10 day period. 

There’s a lot to be said for information overload like we have in current times. I remember the farming forecast every Sunday as well. You watched it, digested it and then got on with your life instead of being glued to each model run four times a day which invariably change each time. Ignorance was bliss back then as far as I’m concerned. 

[snowblizzard]

2 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

There’s a lot to be said for information overload like we have in current times. I remember the farming forecast every Sunday as well. You watched it, digested it and then got on with your life instead of being glued to each model run four times a day which invariably change each time. Ignorance was bliss back then as far as I’m concerned. 

Totally agree.

We've now also got social media and the crap that's churned out about snowmageddon and Narnia!

[StormyLincs]

4 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Totally agree.

We've now also got social media and the crap that's churned out about snowmageddon and Narnia!

And we know those outcomes are about as rare as unicorn in a temperate climate like ours. 

[Froze were the Days]

47 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Once upon a time you watched the Farmers forecast on Country file which was aired on a Sunday lunchtime. If cold weather was forecast, you just waited to see if it came off. These days, every model run is dissected, its like going to a sadistic dentist, and having a tooth pulled over a 10 day period. 

Totally true!...and don't forget Ceefax with their outlook which I think covered 3 to 5 days time, give me those days back! Too much information is not a good thing.

Basically keep away from model watching

[stainesbloke]

It’s more a case of people getting sucked into the constant, massive bias given to possible cold/snowy chart output on the forum that’s the issue. When you don’t live in a fantasy world but actually accept that the NW European climate is generally too mild for much snow in winter, it’s not so much of a life or death drama or disappointment when it doesn’t snow. A mild, maritime climate will always be a mild, maritime climate, with only occasional interludes of weather conditions more typical of a continental climate (more so the further north one goes in winter, and more for the south, in summer).

Edited January 30, 2021 by stainesbloke

[Valleyboy]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yippee! And hooray it gets there was around day 10.. 

 

 

If this winter panned out like the day 10 model outputs, the UK would’ve had a winter colder and snowier than any previous winter ever!  I’m giving this winter 4 more weeks, before my attention turns to spring, warmer weather, vaccine roll out etc.

[cobbett]

London mean EPS 850 temps range from a barely useful -4.3 on the 6th Feb then rising ever upwards to a pitiful -0.6 on the 13th

Think that says it all really (slightly better further north you go,  tho not much)

Edited January 30, 2021 by cobbett

[snowblizzard]

Anyway, I suppose the one good thing about this winter is that sometimes we definitely know that there's absolutely no chance of anything wintry on the cards.

But, at the moment there is a reasonable 'chance' that we could experience something more exciting in terms of wintry weather!      

[Robbie Coldrain]

Hi all.

Thanks for all the great analysis. It feels like things are just on the slide a bit for the south, with a short cold snap likely next weekend for a few days, rather than a deep cold spell.

It's another day of horrible cold rain again down here, but I'm used to it now.  Nearly always a few degrees too warm here.

Thanks again.

Robbie.

[Flake news]

Someone should just write 'no' in the "Is The Beast Awakening?" thread and be done with it.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index is currently 98, even with a completely, snowless exceptionally mild and frost free period from now to end of February, the index will finish about the low 70s.

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

2019-20: 29

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[Djdazzle]

Never ceases to amaze me how people in the mod thread can put such a positive spin on crud charts!

Politicians would be proud!

Only 4 weeks left of chasing cold charts . . .

 

[78/79]

1 hour ago, apophenia said:

Someone should just write 'no' in the "Is The Beast Awakening?" thread and be done with it.

Sometimes I think that you've got more chance of seeing Lord Lucan ride by on Shergar. 

[Djdazzle]

I should add that of course there is the chance of cold and snow into March, but my switch gets flicked on March 1st to searching for warmth!

I nearly fell off my chair laughing the other day when I saw the same rubbish about a “historic February” etc.

It would be a fitting sequel to our historic January . . .