Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

[Sunny76]

I always find the journey from New Year’s Day until March 1st is a very long time. It’s such a drag. The days are still quite short and dark, despite the gradual increase in daylight.

I don’t get too excited about spring or summer until we get past the March 1st hurdle, and even then there’s still potential for lots of cold and grey days.

[Eugene]

No doubt the perfect high latitude blocking to deliver arctic northeasterlies will begin March 1st onwards.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Eugene

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I always find the journey from New Year’s Day until March 1st is a very long time. It’s such a drag. The days are still quite short and dark, despite the gradual increase in daylight.

I don’t get too excited about spring or summer until we get past the March 1st hurdle, and even then there’s still potential for lots of cold and grey days.

past Jan is a massive hurdle, then Feb thankfully shorter, then we can think of ending this boring rubbish, dragging though,

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

Must be hell on earth being a snow lover in SW/S/SE England! Hopefully you all see some decent depths of snowfall before Winter is over.

On the plus side you get tropical days/nights in Summer - not a bad trade off! (I am a warm/hot weather lover also! )

Great Winter up here so far! I am at sea level on the West coast so not a particularly snowy spot to be in! Luckily (especially in these times) I am surrounded by hills/mountains so a local walk can take me up to high ground fairly quickly! Couple of recent pictures.

 

Cold with wintry potential for the foreseeable up here so not a bad outlook either! Once it gets to mid March the hunt for Spring warmth/sunshine begins for me.

All the best to you all.

Looks lovely up there Mr Frost, must be great to see and feel proper seasonal changes! But yes I guess Southerners have the warmth during the summer so shouldn't complain (too much!). 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Eugene said:

No doubt the perfect high latitude blocking to deliver arctic northeasterlies will begin March 1st onwards.

Bloody hope not, I am looking towards spring in a few weeks! But typically that's blighty for you...

[summer blizzard]

As much as I normally think there's a lot of hype that's unfounded I actually do think we are unlucky this time. We have seen a downwelling SSW impact the trop but fail to generate an optimum outcome for our location.

These things happen, we've been spoiled by SSW's delivering easterlies.

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

As much as I normally think there's a lot of hype that's unfounded I actually do think we are unlucky this time. We have seen a downwelling SSW impact the trop but fail to generate an optimum outcome for our location.

These things happen, we've been spoiled by SSW's delivering easterlies.

 Is it still not early days. I mean we are seeing a number of warming’s in the Trop, some haven’t even happened yet but are looking very likely, and the models are also showing the split or close to it end Jan/early Feb. A few years back people on here, far more knowledgable posters than me, used to say that it can take around 4 weeks to see the full effects of an ssw on our weather, has something changed?

[summer blizzard]

I do still think it will be cold more likely than not out to mid Feb.

[StormyLincs]

Well I’ve put away the snow shovel in the shed. Put the thermals, gloves and bobble hat away in the wardrobe and stored the skis and snow boots back in the loft for the winter. For me this winter is a complete bust. In all seriousness though, there’s very little in the way of even a glimmer of hope in the model output, and we’re now looking into February. I just want this miserable, wet dross done with now and some spring sunshine and warmth, and more especially dry weather. 
Here’s to next winter where I’m sure some people will already be predicting that the cold is ‘nailed’.

[SLEETY]

3 hours ago, Eugene said:

No doubt the perfect high latitude blocking to deliver arctic northeasterlies will begin March 1st onwards.

Always seem to get decent set-ups in the spring,but doesnt stay for long here by then.

But looks hopeless now this Winter,always great at day 10,but they never verify!

Feel sorry for Scottish ski industry ,amazing conditions for once but closed until lMarch at least,

Edited January 19, 2021 by SLEETY

[SLEETY]

59 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Well I’ve put away the snow shovel in the shed. Put the thermals, gloves and bobble hat away in the wardrobe and stored the skis and snow boots back in the loft for the winter. For me this winter is a complete bust. In all seriousness though, there’s very little in the way of even a glimmer of hope in the model output, and we’re now looking into February. I just want this miserable, wet dross done with now and some spring sunshine and warmth, and more especially dry weather. 
Here’s to next winter where I’m sure some people will already be predicting that the cold is ‘nailed’.

Ever since that nailed on post  it went the other way regarding very cold weather, nothing to suggest any deep cold on the horizon,

Game over for this winter. 

[SLEETY]

59 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Well I’ve put away the snow shovel in the shed. Put the thermals, gloves and bobble hat away in the wardrobe and stored the skis and snow boots back in the loft for the winter. For me this winter is a complete bust. In all seriousness though, there’s very little in the way of even a glimmer of hope in the model output, and we’re now looking into February. I just want this miserable, wet dross done with now and some spring sunshine and warmth, and more especially dry weather. 
Here’s to next winter where I’m sure some people will already be predicting that the cold is ‘nailed’.

Ever since that nailed on post  it went the other way regarding very cold weather, nothing to suggest any deep cold on the horizon,

Game over for this winter. 

[Weathizard]

Brief summary of model watching waiting for anything that isn’t dull, dreary, wet weather to show up...

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC predicts snow for large parts of the UK. 

WXCHARTS

[Garthvader]

So they have had snow in the sahara desert .......

[snowblizzard]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Ever since that nailed on post  it went the other way regarding very cold weather, nothing to suggest any deep cold on the horizon,

Game over for this winter. 

I wouldn't give up just yet SLEETY!

There are still a few weeks of opportunity to come.

No, it's not going to be a 62/63 winter, but I doubt we'll ever see one of those again in our lifetime.

Although it's difficult to see the Atlantic relenting from here, we could possibly see effects of SSW's late February or early March like 2018

Who knows?

Edited January 19, 2021 by snowblizzard

[Chasbrown]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Ever since that nailed on post  it went the other way regarding very cold weather, nothing to suggest any deep cold on the horizon,

Game over for this winter. 

Quite agree, no snow for the South for another winter. Reminds me of 1983/4 which was snow fest for the North and diddly squat for the South. This time next year Rodney! 

[Roger J Smith]

A new instalment of weather rap, for that down time until the pub run arrives ...

 

You got your ECM and your GFS,

why they bother I don't know I confess,

after three or four days it's all white noise,

but they're never wrong about mild, eh boys?

and girls ...

we hurl when we see that output coming through,

and there's nothing but zonal flow in view,

check the other models, maybe they will impress,

nope now I must say getting depressed, 

but the good thing is, they can only upgrade,

or perhaps it will just be 20 in the shade by

next week, 

outlook's bleak, 

where's that stratospheric warming thing,

we could use some air mass that might cold air bring,

I'm still waitin'

I'm still waitin'

where it's cold anyway, near the U.S.A. 

no one cares if it snows, gotta see that as ironic,

some in the UK would find it moronic, 

gotta shovel, 

had another dump,

say goodbye to Donald Trump

see ya later. 

_______________________________

picture from my part of the world, recently ... 60 cm snow depth where not plowed or shovelled. 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[snowblizzard]

Azores high - UK winter killer! 

[Beanz]

Took a few weeks off because the model watching was becoming tiring and rather disappointing, but returned to some pretty dreadful looking stuff from ECM and still everybody seems to be hanging on to charts showing titbits at +300hrs.  
 

Winter 20/21 - the ‘nearly but not quite’ year  

 

 

[Bermuda High]

Well I guess the SSW has had no effect on UK weather, bog standard fare at the surface. Its all been a virtual unreality. Still this time next year Rodney....

[drgl]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

Took a few weeks off because the model watching was becoming tiring and rather disappointing, but returned to some pretty dreadful looking stuff from ECM and still everybody seems to be hanging on to charts showing titbits at +300hrs.  
 

Winter 20/21 - the ‘nearly but not quite’ year  

 

 

Sadly it's the same most years. When will people learn? I get that it's fun watching these models but it obvious they are next to useless! When they get it right it's no different to betting on red enough times!!

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Beanz said:

Took a few weeks off because the model watching was becoming tiring and rather disappointing, but returned to some pretty dreadful looking stuff from ECM and still everybody seems to be hanging on to charts showing titbits at +300hrs.  
 

Winter 20/21 - the ‘nearly but not quite’ year  

 

 

Could be another way for describing the covid situation. 2021 will be another difficult year I think.

[MP-R]

19 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Always seem to get decent set-ups in the spring,but doesnt stay for long here by then.

But looks hopeless now this Winter,always great at day 10,but they never verify!

Feel sorry for Scottish ski industry ,amazing conditions for once but closed until lMarch at least,

Indeed, and often although we get synoptics that would bring beasterly type weather at times in spring and early summer, precipitation is often lacking even then. Some examples from last year:

     

The March/April/May examples would've been bitterly cold, clear and very frosty, perhaps with a brief snowy interlude in the transition from mild preceding mild to cold.

Interestingly, the first half of June last year would've brought a two week period of cold and potentially snowy weather in winter with troughs disrupting through the UK following the initial northerly, with unstable easterlies... which brought the period of thundery weather.

These are the sorts of charts I'd love to see in the winter months.

[Flake news]

20 hours ago, SLEETY said:

 

Feel sorry for Scottish ski industry ,amazing conditions for once but closed until lMarch at least,

There are some vague similarities with 2013-2014, when the snow was up to the tops of the ski lifts.  that year also had amplified patterns where all the amplification was in the wrong places.