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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
4 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey Teits...you have made my day.. I mentioned you in my Christmas post,when I was hoping all those who had been missing for a long time would read that message and hopefully return...I had heard you had been unwell mate...im glad your back posting and wish you all the best.

Looking at the output there is most definitely some drama..Next week is gonna be tricky to start...yes milder in the South...but for how long? Then we have a frontal system moving in around mid week...this could bring snow as it slows down,especially towards the North...but we have been here before,there could be corrections further South. John Hammond of weather Trending points out in his Blog that the coming weeks are gonna be a nightmare for forecasters..And of the models that were,and are predicting milder times,he thinks the idea seems a little far fetched with how things are playing out this year..We still look primed fro Blocking episodes for some time and with further warming of the strat next week,we could be looking at even more model chaos. To sum up,things look much better than they have done for some time regarding recent Winters.

And just to finish...anymore of the old guard posters who have gone missing...please drop in a post and let us know your OK...the old uns are always the best

I would love to know what happened to Old Met Man as his posts were amazing, super enthusiastic and really helped the likes of me who struggle with the complexity of it all  

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
55 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Northern and central parts seem to be luckier than the South recently!

Whens the last time the flippin Thames Estuary had more than an inch of snow ? 2013 ?!!!!

Feb 2018?...would be the most obvious reply.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
20 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Feb 2018?...would be the most obvious reply.

We had less than two inches then which was the most pathetic effort ever considering we had the infamous beast from the east!!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
13 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We had less than two inches then which was the most pathetic effort ever considering we had the infamous beast from the east!!

Well I've answered your question - 2018 it was, though by the sounds of it that does sound a bit paltry.

See the mod thread coldies are now throwing their eggs in the GFS basket as it now is showing the best synoptics going forward, UKMO/ECM sidelined for the moment.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

In such a awful 12 months to have something akin to a Winter is fantastic, loving it so far, not to cold, still early doors and outlook look is fairly good as well! Nothing to moan about at all

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well I've answered your question - 2018 it was, though by the sounds of it that does sound a bit paltry.

See the mod thread coldies are now throwing their eggs in the GFS basket as it now is showing the best synoptics going forward, UKMO/ECM sidelined for the moment.

They end up jinxing everything every time!

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
1 minute ago, markyo said:

In such a awful 12 months to have something akin to a Winter is fantastic, loving it so far, not to cold, still early doors and outlook look is fairly good as well! Nothing to moan about at all

Apart from seeing sod all snow ? Is that too much to ask at our latitude ?

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

GFS & GFSP really poor tonight IMHO. Things were looking up a bit yesterday but some big steps in the wrong direction today. Just waiting for the daily ECM Northerly now that appears at day 10 to top things off. Its the hope that grinds you down  

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

Well, well, well... after a truly lame first half of winter here, the ECM wants to send me into the freezer next week (high of - 9C on Day 7). Still plenty of time of course for it all to go the shape of the pear... 

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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
20 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Well, well, well... after a truly lame first half of winter here, the ECM wants to send me into the freezer next week (high of - 9C on Day 7). Still plenty of time of course for it all to go the shape of the pear... 

Yep, could be interesting week for us with cold air dropping as soon as Wednesday. Arctic days possible as well. Let's wait and see!

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Wouldn’t it be good if there was a SSW every year as it has certainly made model watching fascinating.That along with a moderate/strong La Niña that was forecast by most weather models failing to materialise and instead we will have a weak to moderate one has really ensured the turmoil persisting in what direction winter 2020/21 will go in.I find it quite refreshing that with all the technology in the world the models have flipped in recent days to what they were showing in late November.It has been lovely to see how most of Scotland,the north east,north west,the midlands,Ireland,Wales,parts of the SW and even elevated parts of the SE have had at least one snow events with the luckier ones having as many as 4 or 5!You only have to look at pictures of Harrogate yesterday which received 6-8 inches of snow ,which was significantly much more than was forecast ,to see that snow events can pop out of anywhere.I am very optimistic that the next 6-8 weeks will see all parts of the UK see more snow chances and that is someone in NW Kent who has seen a 5 minute flurry last night as the only snow fallen to date!

This winter has really shown a lot of promise of the infamous Day 10 charts that so far have failed to turn into reality especially for those in the South but I think we finally may see a change of fortunes before the end of the month and February has the POTENTIAL to be quite a wintry month.Let’s be positive on our ❄️ Chances

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Posted
  • Location: Dudley
  • Location: Dudley

I would be very pleased if I lived on a tropical island where it is 29c all year round. But as I am not I just have to hope there is no horrible ice bound breeze from Siberia. Just like I do every year. Here is to the Vest from the West rather than the Beast from the East !  

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
2 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

I would be very pleased if I lived on a tropical island where it is 29c all year round. But as I am not I just have to hope there is no horrible ice bound breeze from Siberia. Just like I do every year. Here is to the Vest from the West rather than the Beast from the East !  

I used to love a good Siberian freeze and buckets of snow when I was younger. But as you get older the appeal diminishes. Personally I’d be happy with a mild and dry winter, it’s less disruptive and easier on the gas bill. I still totally get why the younger members like it though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

ECM also a little flat, no real support for it but not great, still, keep it quiet or you'll be tarred as being a 'mildie', 'negative' or 'worrying'!   

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Once again, jan 1879..I mean  1979 ..will mean absolutely nothing to most new members, or members generally..but the GEFS 6z for sure does have wintry potential, as did the 0z..although the 0z mean sucked, as in, mild for late Jan, there were still some wintry members..phew!..just saying that I am actually looking at the mods..I mean models!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Once again, jan 1979 will mean absolutely nothing to most new members, or members generally..but the GEFS 6z for sure does have wintry potential, as did the 0z..although the 0z mean sucked, as in, mild for late Jan, there were still some wintry members..phew!..just saying that I am actually looking at the mods..I mean models!

The last really severe winter of the 20th Century occurred in 1978/79, and although not as cold as 1963 or as snowy as 1947, it was memorable none the less. Much of the UK experienced long cold spells with heavy snowfall. The other thing which makes 1979 special is that it was the first severe winter to occur in the UK after colour photography had become widespread and was recent enough for people in their 30s or older to remember. I can personally recall heavy snow that year, especially during the middle part of February. Although a number of cold winters followed in the 1980s, none of them could match 1979.

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Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
2 minutes ago, BARRY said:

The last really severe winter of the 20th Century occurred in 1978/79, and although not as cold as 1963 or as snowy as 1947, it was memorable none the less. Much of the UK experienced long cold spells with heavy snowfall. The other thing which makes 1979 special is that it was the first severe winter to occur in the UK after colour photography had become widespread and was recent enough for people in their 30s or older to remember. I can personally recall heavy snow that year, especially during the middle part of February. Although a number of cold winters followed in the 1980s, none of them could match 1979.

I was three in 1979 and I’m 44 so...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
9 minutes ago, BARRY said:

The last really severe winter of the 20th Century occurred in 1978/79, and although not as cold as 1963 or as snowy as 1947, it was memorable none the less. Much of the UK experienced long cold spells with heavy snowfall. The other thing which makes 1979 special is that it was the first severe winter to occur in the UK after colour photography had become widespread and was recent enough for people in their 30s or older to remember. I can personally recall heavy snow that year, especially during the middle part of February. Although a number of cold winters followed in the 1980s, none of them could match 1979.

Twas a most wonderful winter, Barry... Long trips on the back of a Honda Super Dream, along as-yet unopened MK roads, in search of the perfect place to dive into a snowdrift! The 1970s equivalent of today's 'Tombstoning' perhaps...?:drunk-emoji:

PS: I was 22!

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
8 minutes ago, BARRY said:

The last really severe winter of the 20th Century occurred in 1978/79, and although not as cold as 1963 or as snowy as 1947, it was memorable none the less. Much of the UK experienced long cold spells with heavy snowfall. The other thing which makes 1979 special is that it was the first severe winter to occur in the UK after colour photography had become widespread and was recent enough for people in their 30s or older to remember. I can personally recall heavy snow that year, especially during the middle part of February. Although a number of cold winters followed in the 1980s, none of them could match 1979.

There aren’t many people in their thirties who were born 42 years ago.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

I can just just about remember December1978/ January 1979, as my Dad was working in Plymouth Telephone exchange at the time on nights. He drove home in rain, but we got up to a winter wonderland which from memory did persist. Must have been around New Year from memory as I started school on 5th January 1979 (that ages me!) and remember the snow being on the ground!

But nothing, nothing beats January 1987 here. Now that was a snow event for Plymouth- even my late Nan was cut off in the South Hams that year for nearly a week in the normally well connected Newton Ferrers. Snow stuck for ages including on Dartmoor.

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
15 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Looking at the latest fax charts

I can't see a route to proper cold for UK anytime soon I'm afraid!  ☹️ 

Any proper cold is ~10 days+ away yet. And that is only on one model (albeit they've been consistent) and ECM showing some tentative building blocks near the end of their run.

Interesting viewing for sure, but coldies shouldnt be getting too excited until and unless there is cross model agreement at 72h maximum. I've seen too many forecasted cold spells fall apart at the last hurdle. over the years...

Don't take model runs in isolation either, look at them all and look at trends.

I know what will happen if the GFS p has a wobble.....

Edited by Uncle_Barty
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
p093mkf5.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

The images are captured high above the mountains by filmmaker James Bessant Davies.

This is why Winter is so special.. Nature at its best

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