Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm happy with how things are going, it could be a lot worse, still time. 

I agree that 192 really surprised me on how the heights stayed up to our north... another shove of the same magnitude overnight runs and we would be there.. by shove I mean get those bod darn heights over Spain out over the Atlantic wh8ch they are thinking about when you flick between 168 and 192

[ICE COLD]

Not today on the ECM but it’s so close to being very good . 

[Stuie]

On 04/01/2021 at 09:25, Stuie W said:

Hope this doesn`t have much legs as I can`t remember stonking Iberian HP systems helping us in winter if you want cold down South. 

Well that held up unfortunately.

[Battleground Snow]

I'm liking the look of the Atlantic at 216!

Can it just make the link up this time?

Edit: not a million miles away from the para

Edited January 7, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[chris55]

216,  not quite there on this run but a few tweaks and we’d be in business.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, chris55 said:

216,  not quite there on this run but a few tweaks and we’d be in business.

If the low can head south east it will be a very good 240.. not that confident it will though

[Penrith Snow]

Interesting ECM big improvement on last night with the -5c 850 rarely leaving northern Scotland.

Without that blasted Iberia High Western Europe would be going into the freezer.

One thing to note is that models are rapidly trending colder in the medium term, so rarely has the outlook been so volatile, we  may end up with the situation where your building snowmen in Newcastle but having a BBQ in Bristol!

Andy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Penrith Snow said:

Interesting ECM big improvement on last night with the -5c 850 rarely leaving northern Scotland.

Without that blasted Iberia High Western Europe would be going into the freezer.

One thing to note is that models are rapidly trending colder in the medium term, so rarely has the outlook been so volatile, we  may end up with the situation where your building snowmen in Newcastle but having a BBQ in Bristol!

Andy

my childhood battles of the 90's, the days when north of the M4 had snow, S just rain

[IDO]

No point looking beyond d7 atm as that is when the gfs and ecm ops diverge in terms of modelling of the Arctic high. That change sends each run in a different nh flows:

gfs>ecm>

I checked on the means for the same time and they each support their respective ops! Once that is resolved we can maybe see a path forward from there?

[Matt H]

Interesting ending. 

[ICE COLD]

Day 10 yes day ten , high being sucked up in the Atlantic

[Drifter]

JMA on the cusp of something very nice. The charts at the moment, especially pre-FI, have a feel of they know where they want to end  up (cold) but are struggling to juggle the jigsaw pieces in to position. 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Drifter

[Notty]

Is that HP heading to Greenland?

[KTtom]

Ahh, day 10...if only, would love to see day 11 and 12, the angle of the low exiting Canada would surely take the ridge to west Greenland?

 

[Battleground Snow]

I want to see day 11!

 

[Tim Bland]

Day 10 has potential

[northwestsnow]

Now then ECM...

Dont be teasing us!

That is a trend i want to see contunue...

[Matt H]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 has potential

Safe to say that it has been one hell of a winter at day 10 this year.

[mother nature rocks]

In the words of Yoda - typical zonal it is not!! ECM with a few slight adjustments would be very good!! Come Monday we may be seeing some dream charts!! 
 

MNR ️

[sebastiaan1973]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

No point looking beyond d7 atm as that is when the gfs and ecm ops diverge in terms of modelling of the Arctic high. That change sends each run in a different nh flows:

gfs>ecm>

I checked on the means for the same time and they each support their respective ops! Once that is resolved we can maybe see a path forward from there?

Excellent view on what I mentioned earlier. The GFS pushes the cold air in the Norwegian sea and further to the south, making it much more difficult for high pressure to build to the north. EC keeps the cold air in Siberia.

[ICE COLD]

Let’s just look at it this way it’s better than the last few op runs from the ECM . Let’s just hope it’s the way forward and we get there

[Sweatyman]

11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not today on the ECM but it’s so close to being very good . 

And probably 1 step back on the 00z as usually seems the case !

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 has potential

If the day 6 chart was at day 10 you'd say the same thing

[Vikos]

Comparing ystdys 240is 12z to todays 12z EC

--->

 

 

[Cloud 10]

Just comparing the operational runs from ECM,GFS and UKMO at 144 hrs shows this is a difficult evolution for the models to resolve,so expect more changes in the short term.