Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Griff]

Just now, Vikos said:

Still, EC does it better

Casual observation is that ecm has swung towards para several times since December... 

[winterof79]

31 minutes ago, LRD said:

A long way away but even the Para goes badly near the end

 

 

Rubbish reallynot

Edited January 7, 2021 by winterof79

[snowking]

If anyone wants to check out model performance you can do here: 

NCEP EMC Global Model Verification

WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Currently GFS para outperforms standard GFS out to day 6, thereafter the GFS is the better performer (but we currently have only 25 days of data for the para, so not an entirely fair comparison just yet).

At day 10 on the 12z runs at least, the old GFS is king:

However the most accurate run of the day at day 10 is the ECM 0z:

 

[Updated_Weather]

11 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Para?

Doing well

[Matt H]

Definitely a much colder set of GEFS 12z ensembles this afternoon, looks like the milder spell has been watered down a fair bit...

06z:

12z:

 

[Anthony Burden]

GFS once again keen to ridge high pressure north at 120 hrs only to collapse it at 192 hrs.

Not supported by UKMO but still interesting,Gefs will be one to watch for any sudden drop in 850hpa

by members.Probably a time for everybody to be patient SSW will show itself in the charts,hopefully 

not to long away.

[LRD]

What an arctic profile

But what a horrible Iberian profile

[Tim Bland]

GFS was a mild outlier at the end but still no clear trends...

[ICE COLD]

10 minutes ago, LRD said:

A long way away but even the Para goes badly near the end

 

No this is bad on the gfs 12z no chance with anything cold on that .

The Gfs// is good across the NH . But nothing in are little corner yet . You can see routes to cold on that . So I wouldn’t call it bad

 

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Rubbish really

Not sure if you're being sarky or not.

If you are in terms of surface conditions for the UK it is. What's the point of an arctic high or a promising arctic pressure pattern if it doesn't result in a solid spell of cold and snow for us? We could be talking about 'good arctic profiles' for weeks and it'd be March before we know it and most of us still wouldn't have seen a snowflake

Having said that at least the para does give us hope with the north pole looking like that

[Battleground Snow]

Feeling a little bit more optimistic again after this morning, at least the para is showing very strong heights over the Arctic 1065mb is impressive. A little support from GEM too.

Would like the ECM EPS to start showing a trop split too..

A few of the ensembles have great NH profiles at 276 (attached) more ups and downs coming I think!

 

 

[Vikos]

9 minutes ago, snowking said:

At day 10 on the 12z runs at least, the old GFS is king:

But still having that post-d10-BIAS of overrating atlantic influence when there is a cold continent. Low level cold air isn't always pushed away so fast as GFS is proclaming it ( without significant vents)

[LRD]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

No this is bad on the gfs 12z no chance with anything cold on that .

The Gfs// is good across the NH . But nothing in are little corner yet . You can see routes to cold on that . So I wouldn’t call it bad

 

Sure, I like the arctic profile but if it doesn't deliver for us, so what? The words 'promising'and 'potential' just don't cut any ice with me (pardon the pun) any more I'm afraid. Nearly 3 years and only seeing snow on one day (which was gone by the next day) in all that time has broken my patience I'm afraid. It's all about snow to give me a chance to play in it with my youngest before she gets too old for that sort of thing. Something I've not been able to do very often in her lifetime 

This is the good, bad and ugly of winter charts for the UK

Edited January 7, 2021 by LRD

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Not sure if you're being sarky or not.

If you are in terms of surface conditions for the UK it is. What's the point of an arctic high or a promising arctic pressure pattern if it doesn't result in a solid spell of cold and snow for us? We could be talking about 'good arctic profiles' for weeks and it'd be March before we know it and most of us still wouldn't have seen a snowflake

Having said that at least the para does give us hope with the north pole looking like that

Yes, a good profile is no guarantee of anything notable. Of course, If things fall our way, it’ll be a help to us. But it’s usually elsewhere that seems to benefit.

[Cuban Zebra]

I’ve stayed away for a while to heal my shredded nerves but looking at the GFS 12z I can’t believe the differences even at 3-4 days! I think we’re still in with a shout of some serious cold!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

One thing for sure is those ens seem confident that significant cold is building to the E/NE...secondly will be if we can tap into it...if there is a battleground snow could be very significant! Possibilities are endless..and tbh i may be a little premature,but I'm also a tad excited...I don't think I will be able to contain myself for too much longer...The drama continues,and I tell you what,its superior to Albert Square.

[Griff]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

One thing for sure is those ens seem confident that significant cold is building to the E/NE...secondly will be if we can tap into it...if there is a battleground snow could be very significant! Possibilities are endless..and tbh i may be a little premature,but I'm also a tad excited...I don't think I will be able to contain myself for too much longer...The drama continues,and I tell you what,its superior to Albert Square.

We've all been there, the excitement can definitely lead to being a tad premature, just don't boom too soon! 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Sure, I like the arctic profile but if it doesn't deliver for us, so what? The words 'promising'and 'potential' just don't cut any ice with me (pardon the pun) any more I'm afraid. Nearly 3 years and only seeing snow on one day (which was gone by the next day) in all that time has broken my patience I'm afraid. It's all about snow to give me a chance to play in it with my youngest before she gets too old for that sort of thing. Something I've not been able to do very often in her lifetime 

Agreed , it does get so frustrating. We seem to be in the draw but always pull out the losing tickets . We seemed to be in a very good place a week ago for a cold Jan but that’s gone down the drain . Now we’re looking towards the end of the month and we still have February but it would of been great to have a freezing Jan with loads of snow for once . 
 

let’s hope we get something like P11

[Vikos]

[Tim Bland]

What’s the odds that the ECM follows the GEM

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What’s the odds that the ECM follows the GEM

Trick question? 

[BARRY]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

What’s the odds that the ECM follows the GEM

It looks good but jan16th is a long way off but we can dream

 

[Cloud 10]

GEFS day 10 ens. mean.

 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Trick question? 

It’s happened quite a few times before, I believe they use similar data so not out of the question.

[Jason M]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What’s the odds that the ECM follows the GEM

If you look at the three charts that follow this, within 24 hours the cold air is headed away SE. Its a very short /sharp shock.