Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[LRD]

Some encouraging output from the GFS para and GEM as others have posted

The GFS 12z is dreadful if you want cold:

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by LRD

[seabreeze86]

Here comes the Para again with another great run, heights building in Greenland 

[IDO]

14 minutes ago, danm said:

Some good earlier trends for increased amplification coming from the GFS/GFS Para and to a lesser extent the UKMO. However, if we're going to achieve anything from it, we really need that pesky Azores/Iberian high to shove off. 

To those more knowledgeable than me - what essentially needs to happen for the Azores high to move away into a more favourable position? 

As @Tamara mentioned in a recent post, The Law of Conservation of Energy implications means that the energy is distributed within the NH. We lose the Russian high so high pressure is preserved elsewhere within the system. Looks like it is pooling to our south rather than funnelled to Russia as it was on the recent cold spells.

So a way that energy is to move from the Azores/Iberia we need to see a sub-Tropical push into higher latitudes creating a vacuum for that energy and allowing the heights to dissipate from our south.

At the moment we are relying on the placement of the Arctic high to direct the cold rather than a meridional pattern? As you say, with the current pattern, long-term cold will be difficult to sustain.

[Notty]

41 minutes ago, Griff said:

Not trolling but

Couldn’t make it up !

[swfc]

12z gfs para says see you later PV!! Be it fi great nhp profile

[TSNWK]

Moments like this that I find the spaghetti ensemble 850 plots helpful.
 

be nice to see a few splitting from the pack heading down from around day 8 to support GEM.

the think green line for operatonal being above the pack throughout   and a shameful outlier towards the end.

and if not too much to ask so mid range onward  Negatives showing up from day 10. aka trendsetters.

please!

[LRD]

Para looking decent in FI:

It really is consistent wwith the idea of some kind of significant height rise to our NW. And look at that arctic profile. Jeez, if we don't get something significantly cold out of this (if it verifies) it really is time to give this hobby up... what with the rainy Easterly we've had down south too

[warrenb]

Looks like GFS goes for displacement whereas GGSP goes for a split.

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Para looking decent in FI:

It really is consistent wwith the idea of some kind of significant height rise to our NW. And look at that arctic profile. Jeez, if we don't get something significantly cold out of this (if it verifies) it really is time to give this hobby up... what with the rainy Easterly we've had down south too

Always that problematic lobe of energy to the south of Greenland though. 

[sebastiaan1973]

In my opinion there is a problem with the North pole high pressure area. The real cold is not blown in the NW part of Russia but in the Norwegian ocean. Preferably the Arctic high moves more to the south.

[DanDorsetUK]

My money is more on the para being correct. Not because its showing what we want to see but because it's been more consistent along with I believe can model the SSW downwelling much better. 

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

In my opinion there is a problem with the North pole high pressure area. The real cold is not blown in the NW part of Russia but in the Norwegian ocean. Preferably the Arctic high moves more to the south.

If a North Pole high moves, it will always go South
I suppose you mean towards Svalbard/Scandinavia.

[Tim Bland]

Igniring the GFS and going with the GFSp tonight...it matches the trends we have been seeing and matches the Meto thoughts ...

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, swfc said:

12z gfs para says see you later PV!! Be it fi great nhp profile

I'm putting all my eggs in one basket, what could possibly go wrong

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

In my opinion there is a problem with the North pole high pressure area. The real cold is not blown in the NW part of Russia but in the Norwegian ocean. Preferably the Arctic high moves more to the south.

Well, the arctic high at least exists. Gives us a chance. So at 10 days range it ain't a problem yet. And at least getting to align right is a nice problem to have rather than it not being there at all

If you want a real problem look at the GFS - it goes for something very different where what's left of the PV is drawn to Greenland like flies to s**t. In fact the GFS 12z couldn't be more imperfect if you tried to draw it

[Vikos]

Para?

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm putting all my eggs in one basket, what could possibly go wrong

How's the parallel looking griff? You are the man to ask 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Para?

Outperforming the old GFS!

Edited January 7, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

How's the parallel looking griff? You are the man to ask 

Home schooling and densely freezing fog are clouding my vision... 144 is fi! 

 

Edit: trend for amplification continues, but do we ever get on the cold side? 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Griff

[LRD]

A long way away but even the Para goes badly near the end

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Outperforming the old GFS!

Would make sense as it's verification data will start to include the SSW period now.

[Bogman]

8 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm putting all my eggs in one basket, what could possibly go wrong

 

You drop the basket?

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

A long way away but even the Para goes badly near the end

 

I think it's going to take a couple of bites at the cherry before we get any stellar charts.

1. Deep cold Should enter Scandinavia/Eastern Europe/ Russia

2. We will probably just miss out on it with atlantic weather slightly favoured over the cold dry air.

3. Atlantic starts to lose it's influence late this month with colder air advecting closer to us.

4. Boom ECM, UKMO, GFS all in agreement of boom charts with -15 uppers crossing the country late january! 

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Outperforming the old GFS!

Still, EC does it better

[Snowman.]

Not bad GEFS.

12z   6z