Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[XtremeUKWeather]

1 minute ago, Paul T said:

[snowice]

Gfs 96hrs 

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

My experience of ssw is there is usually a sudden flip in the models to a bitter easterly..at least..I flippin hope so!

Just too clarify, I know we have an easterly, of sorts during the days ahead but it’s lame / toothless compared to the last time we had a ssw in that famous March not many years ago..perspective / proportion and all that!

[Cold Winter Night]

GFS +102h does not give up yet. I would say even a bit better than 6Z.

[MJB]

UKMO 120 - Will the North play a part on the 144

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Just too clarify, I know we have an easterly, of sorts during the days ahead but it’s lame / toothless compared to the last time we had a ssw in that famous March not many years ago..perspective / proportion and all that!

Indeed...Here’s the snow depth after the easterly switches to the north...

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

GFS +102h does not give up yet. I would say even a bit better than 6Z.

Looks like the Atlantic is coming towards us, to me... 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Griff

[Harsh Climate]

That dreaded low between greenland and iceland is here on gfs 12z at 108h, this will only go one way  

 

Doesnt matter though its all about the ukmo and ecm

[Tim Bland]

Slight shift east Vs the 06z see below 

[XtremeUKWeather]

GFS backfires

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

That dreaded low between greenland and iceland is here on gfs 12z at 108h, this will only go one way  

 

Doesnt matter though its all about the ukmo and ecm

Yep, only going one way for now in my view - but I don't think it will be long until something much better comes along. 

[IDO]

ICON -v- GFS:

[TSNWK]

Losing the heights into Greenland.. however more of slant up and above scandi.. different option ? To keep us on our toes ?

[Rocheydub]

4 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

GFS +102h does not give up yet. I would say even a bit better than 6Z.

Sorry, but I disagree. Looks to have shifted everything east and sank the high a bit. Always worth waiting to see how it all pans out anyway!

[radiohead]

GFS has moved towards the UKMO

[Johnp]

Just now, IDO said:

ICON -v- GFS:

Almost 100% agreement when the charts aren't as good. 

[radiohead]

UKMO 144....No backtrack

[IDO]

The difference 6h makes:

06z>12z>

[Rocheydub]

That's that then. Let's hope these next couple of days offer something wintery for us all!

[Harsh Climate]

Yep poor UKMO , If ECM Follows UKMO, milder atlantic air will win out next week, you would be about 90% shaw.

[Captain Shortwave]

I would probably give it a couple more suites, but frankly this is pretty awful luck.

Trough on the eastern seaboard and to our east. Where does the cold arctic air go? Yep straight on top of the Atlantic ridge, engages the low running over the top resulting in it rapidly deepening with a strengthening jet to flatten the ridge.

Edited January 3, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[mulzy]

Just now, IDO said:

The difference 6h makes:

06z>12z>

It's the GFS so why is anyone surprised?  Great entertainment value but of little real-life value!

Netweather adage: "if the UKMO's not on it, forget it!"

[Scott Ingham]

Rather than the High pressure sinking i think the trend to take away from the 12z is the chance of a back door easterly we dont actually have the cold leave us at 144.

We have heights running under the high almost setting uw up for a possible repeat of this week if the high retains more latitude.

One to watch!

[MJB]

So we stay cold then ..............could be worse eh ?

UKMO 120

UKMO 144

Let's see where we go after that 

[Notty]

UKMO - difference in that LP up North in 24 hours is pretty extreme: