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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

     Back to discussing model output😩😩T96 Ukmo and gfs. Differences at this time frame.😄

    FA662F4A-7780-4BB1-8AFD-DA425C45415A.gif

    9B31E3A7-972E-4412-AABC-0DA1E4224C8A.png

    What's the differences because they look fairly similar too me? 

    It's going to take a little while for the milder air to fully win out but win out it should do. Whether it leads to mild SW'lies or an attempted ridge northwards as per yesterday's runs who knows although I would place more likelihood on the former.

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Or Iberian Heights

    Speak sweet soft words of encouragement to keep the low over Southern Europe as the high gracefully ascends over us up into Scandinavia and onwards to Greenland 😉 

    gfsnh-0-162.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    No disrespect to any of these people, but did THEY forecast a SSW or merely report on what the strat experts like Simon Lee were predicting, after all its the experts in that field that produce the data. 🤔

    I say this because thats where i get my info from, and report it as such in my own blog and have done since November.

    Your very right.

    Not of us are experts were part time enthusiasts.

    I personally didnt predict a ssw in all honesty based on expertise

    This isnt my area of expertise.

    Tropical signals are.

    These i can honestly say were aligned to create waves that were above average in a nina background state which meant chances of a ssw were way above average.

    What my knowledge does allow me to believe however is that we arent seeing full effects of this ssw just yet and strongly allows me to believe these should still be felt more strongly the end of jan.

    As a caveat i speak for myself.

    Certainly for chio i cant say the same

    As another caveat ive never claimed to be an expert either in the strat field.

    My original forecast if anyone remembers back in december was for a period of westerlies early jan followed by best cold period back back end of january into feb.

    I changed this due to what looked like a quicker qtr and no flushing out of the westerlies

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Not going to be flat this... 

    gfsnh-0-186.png

    Edit: careful what you wish for, we've spent so long preying for anything other than zonal, when perhaps we should have been worshiping a polar bear... 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Jeez enough rutting already its tiresome and its not a - - - - - - - competition 🤔so the outlook remains unsure altho attempted rising of pressure looks on the cards from the south, southwest after the current high disipaits. Never really mild imo but feeling less cold. Hopefully lower Heighths dropping very cold uppers to the east giving a better option ie any east/north easterly along the way. Enjoy 🙏🙏🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Not going to be flat this... 

    gfsnh-0-186.png

    Here we go approaching day 9. Look for stronger Arctic heights spilling into Greenland, and then we need some help from the Atlantic sector to join it all up

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    UKMO 144

    image.thumb.png.606fdb5effdf6c68d4696f3466813c33.png

    🤢

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    18 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    What's the differences because they look fairly similar too me? 

    It's going to take a little while for the milder air to fully win out but win out it should do. Whether it leads to mild SW'lies or an attempted ridge northwards as per yesterday's runs who knows although I would place more likelihood on the former.

    The differences are quite small, TBH I was just trying drag people back to discussing models as opposed to having ago at each other as it’s tiresome.👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    At least that pesky Mediterranean air looks about to sod off!🤸‍♂️👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    UKMO 144

    image.thumb.png.606fdb5effdf6c68d4696f3466813c33.png

    🤢

    Just need to accept there will be a westerly spell next week now unfortunately! All eyes on looking for SSW impacts after that towards the last third of Jan. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    UKMO and GFS at 144

    All seems a bit tame...no strong forcing anywhere. 
     

    GFS a little better at first glance but overall both generally a bit Meh! 
     

    A3A5DFEA-0B6E-4C3C-9844-C4AEC88F3D32.thumb.png.6eff4ede20268e49e0b08c6707b31cd1.pngC0573F18-BFA4-4165-9BD7-D403F12B98E9.thumb.png.da9319a600c495762b4a2ffbc4bd694f.png

     

    Hopefully this SSW will inject a bit of drama either way ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

    Still looking milder in the medium term across nearly all models, still along way to go with the displaced vortex. One thing I personally feel is that the deep cold wont reach us. We may get a few sliders if the HP keeps some depth to it, but all in all the over picture (at the moment) is for the HP to sit over us, probably more southerly for a while and bring in foggy and frosty weather and not practically cold either. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    54 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    quite, its January that is more nailed on mild - 05 Easterly feb, 09 Easterly feb, 86 easterly feb (nina side of enso neutral), 18 late feb easterly (nina)

    And similarly to this January, 2009 was dry and cold or very cold (considerably more so than this month) in the first 11 days of the month, also with very little snow about.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    hgt300.png

    For what it's worth, the jet stream configuration here suggests this run could be more pleasing to the eye for mid-Jan, as the southeast dive to the west of the UK supports trough disruption against the ridge around Iceland.

    I say could because this is, after all, GFS we're looking at!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFS might tease then fail to deliver but at least gfsp a bit more spicy... 

     

    gfsnh-0-150.png

    Edited by Griff
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    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    GFS might tease the fail to deliver but at least gfsp a bit more spicy... 

     

    gfsnh-0-150.png

    Ive noticed this with GFs past few days , it gets that high going north but its never enough and the arcitc high never is strong enough

    Im assuming not enough downwelling

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The jet profile says that it is going to be tough with the Pacific region driving the upstream flow:

    anim_akz3.gif

    We have a split flow rejoining around d8 off the esb, then another stream pumping up the jet and building that expected zonal barrage for d8 onwards. The force is strong, sorry block, and it does hold back the onslaught, however it is going to be tough to build sustainable heights in the Atlantic region till the La Nina uptick falls. Maybe then we will see further westerly slowdowns and the ridge/trough design we are expecting? Wedges are fine but really need those yellows/oranges to get a lot further north.

    The new improved (ecm guided) parallel gfs has not been performing well at d10 on the 12z of late and is bottom of the class (smaller sample for some reason from the P):

    cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.c3e20abc75117919373de306f603187d.png

    The much maligned GFS top of the class! I expect that is partly due to the propensity for ecm and gfsP to blow up heights in these setups?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

    I got the surprise snowfall 1-2 weeks too early.

    The UK high too early, early jan right and i hope late jan right.

    This was beginning of december based on a tropical timeline aligned with waves bringing about a ssw which is was 9 days too early with!

    But not a bad effort built from tropical and extra tropical understanding

    The only thing i changed nearer to time was the zonal first half of January as i predicted no zonal winds would propagate due to the sheer state of the strat

    Screenshot_20210106-164910_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Thimkimg about it though if its beem pushed back two weeks.

    We see the ul high in the next two weeks.

    Then zonal then very cold beginning of feb into first two weeks of march

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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