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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

bluearmy

By bluearmy
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, AFCBSNOW said:

Those T+144 charts are the on the edge of FI at the moment.  Back ground synoptic, as shown on earlier posts are just not backing this up.

LOL but that's when we are looking at the change ( from the North) there is absolutely NO denying, Icon has a change of heart

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Popular Post
Posted
10 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This ssw really is sending models into a frenzy!

My experience of ssw is there is usually a sudden flip in the models to a bitter easterly..at least..I flippin hope so!

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Icon is definitely a move towardw ukmo/ecm

If them to go on to be sharper and icon and gfs go flatter i am taking 2 days off before i go mad! Hahaha!

Without a doubt , no point in people kidding themselves , think you are right , 2 or 3 days rest is good mentally lol

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Even if the GFS is wrong (and it probably is as it is now starting to look out on its own), there should not be too much despair. 

The SSW effect looks like it will propagate at peak winter in thermal terms (last week of Jan/first week of Feb).

Frankly we need a bit of a reset - there is way to much marginality for those away from elevation in the current forecast.

Lets see what happens when the PV, with it deep cold pools is splatted all over the mid latitudes. Still might not deliver but if it does, it will be epic.

I fully expected snow on the ground in my location based on what all of the models have been showing since Christmas and all I have is a light covering of drizzle, with prospects for early in the week now receding also. 

 

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted

In my view, the GFS picked up on the Low pressure that established our current cold spell quite well at least a week beforehand. I have a feeling that it may handle developing LPs better than the other models.

Just a hunch, no science in my view.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, the 12z ICON outputs a flatter solution.  Will this trend continue?   Will the big two back down?  We'll all know within a couple of hours or so...

Well if it's trends we will know in 15 mins if GFS sticks, folds or double downs which in fairness it was toying with this morning's 06z

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted

A SSW is under way.

we should expect models to be all over the place and throwing toys out the pram.

Be cautious when taking models seriously right now. They can easily flip at short notice. 
it’ll be a few days yet at least before we probably find some better understanding to what’s next.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Without a doubt , no point in people kidding themselves , think you are right , 2 or 3 days rest is good mentally lol

Nailed on that they flip flop!

Youve got to stick to your means after a ssw becasue there will be plenty more changes to come!

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
Just now, Notty said:

In my view, the GFS picked up on the Low pressure that established our current cold spell quite well at least a week beforehand. I have a feeling that it may handle developing LPs better than the other models.

Just a hunch, no science in my view.

It's a brave man to put a lot of faith in the GFS especially against the better models.  You may be right though, but I would say long odds!

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The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted
5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Icon is definitely a move towardw ukmo/ecm

If them to go on to be sharper and icon and gfs go flatter i am taking 2 days off before i go mad! Hahaha!

Haha I'm saying the same .... But we all know we will be back on here peeking at the pub Run

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

I’ll be looking at UKMO 96-120 for an indication rather than the GFS.

Me too , that's the big indictor IMO

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

It's a brave man to put a lot of faith in the GFS especially against the better models.  You may be right though, but I would say long odds!

Hi Mulzy. Not putting faith in any models at the mo due to the big changes afoot  

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

This will all be resolved soon i expect GFS to shift towards ECM/ICON. I think a half way house is probably the most likely solution but with the impending SSW lots of wild model runs will continue as they try to sort this mess out.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, The BEAST From The East said:

Haha I'm saying the same .... But we all know we will be back on here peeking at the pub Run

Its a tough call youd normally need youd normally need your head tested to go GFS against an ECM / UKMO blend but this is the only sypnotic out of 10s of them it excels in sooo. I guess we will see!!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its a tough call youd normally need youd normally need your head tested to go GFS against an ECM / UKMO blend but this is the only sypnotic out of 10s of them it excels in sooo. I guess we will see!!

You got anymore of them AAM spikes? Could do with another around the 10th.. 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, Snowman. said:

You got anymore of them AAM spikes? Could do with another around the 10th.. 

I thik we will be looking slightly flatter come then or a day or two after and a snowy battleground period

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted

So what are the odds the GFS replicates the ECM and UKMO from this morning and they then replicate this mornings GFS?! 

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I finally found a -10! If anyone is still interested in the initial Easterly haha.

 

12_36_ukthickness850.png

The initial easterly is definitely colder this run.

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)

I just think people need to mentally prepare themselves for the GFS to move towards the big two over the runs ahead, as the odds would tell you they’re both unlikely to be wrong at that timeframe. But on the flip side, even if that does happen, no toys out of the pram please! Much to look forward to in the weeks ahead, fingers crossed. Winter will not be over!

Edited by danm
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