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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Improvement on the GFS 12Z. Solid move towards EC op. Lets see how this looks by 240h.

    gfs-0-186 (4).png

    gfs-0-192 (11).png

    Yes a net easterly draw there, think it’s as far as I’m looking ahead here it’s an improvement and would probably think the GFS will blow lows up later on in the run. Nice up to this point 👍

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The gfs op at d10 is having none of it and maintains its consistency up until that time; d10 chart:

    1001142365_gfsnh-0-240(4).thumb.png.2c492e5b836c83bbc33c581b500963da.png

    Some wedge activity but with the driver being the tPV, that is likely to need some stronger ridging (yellows) to lead to anything?

    The more I look at the ecm from d6 the more I think it is algorithmic randomness creating a phantom block:

    anim_jym6.gif

    The chances of all those pieces being repeated to get that pattern seems remote, it does not look like strat-trop coupling? Hoping to be proved wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    You can see these wedges being an effect of a near split but not quite split type of SSW, you can see that in most of the last 2 nights worth of GFS op and GFS para runs, that is what the Met Office are thinking in their 30 dayer i would imagine, in their mention of hefty snow events, i can see those type of scenarios coming off but doubt proper blocking highs unless the strat has another go further down the line at a split but looking unlikely any time soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Found it - T360 ensemble mean charts before Feb 2018 BFTE (thanks @bluearmy!)

    Screenshot_20210105-222333.thumb.png.6d210e62c81381d7fbc7c2f9dfe07fa8.pngScreenshot_20210105-222350.thumb.png.7f2d5b95fda15a2a080fa087d317d0b5.pngScreenshot_20210105-222405.thumb.png.005641171b76f992ec6786a43de47df8.png

    We've got a little way to go this time 

    gens-31-1-384.thumb.png.920880500830f9f73101f6cf272061eb.png

    ec-ens_nat_mslstd_mslmean_hres-msl_2021010512_360.thumb.png.490a52e0229d4ff2b6ded967109d8ccf.png

    I think emphasis needs to be put on the fact that we're very much working an uphill battle. Trying to make light of a somewhat dire situation but the SSW is what is keeping our hope going so long may it reign.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    🤔 GFSP at 240...

    More runs needed! 

    gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 hour ago, The4Seasons said:

    Well Thursday into Friday that snow risk is still being shown. 🤞🙂

    prectypeuktopo.png

    I'll raise you a UKV

    viewimage.thumb.png.002eb6441edb233494e8ec79154ab150.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
    4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I'll raise you a UKV

    viewimage.thumb.png.002eb6441edb233494e8ec79154ab150.png

    Could you explain please mapantz? A little confused all I can see is showers just to the east.

    Do the wavy isobars mean more chance of organised snow? Thanks 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Some fresh 12z EC Scenarios

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    1 minute ago, icykev said:

    Could you explain please mapantz? A little confused all I can see is showers just to the east.

    Do the wavy isobars mean more chance of organised snow? Thanks 

    Kinks in the isobars do highlight precipitation. I was just showing the huge differences between the UKV model and the GFS. The UKV is at a much higher resolution - 1.5KM. The ECM doesn't make too much of fuss about it either.

    A tricky forecast, that's for sure!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    6 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Some fresh 12z EC Scenarios

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    Thanks, and most of them have the lilac border = Atlantic ridge until the last set with massive uncertainty as would be expected...I don’t think this is a bad set of clusters at all.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Some promising trends today. 

    2 main features stand out, the development of a UK high trying to ridge North and the building deep cold pool to our ne. 

    It looks like this may become the general holding pattern until the downwelling of the SSW hits the 500 pattern. 

    Good signs that modelling is showing the re emergence of ridging in the Atlantic flow. The building Scandinavian trough looks really juicy for later too. 

    I think its just a little early to expect anything more but allowing for the lag effect it shouldn't be too long before we see further changes as we get more pronounced heights into the pole. 

    As a wise man once said...short term pain for longer term gain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    1 minute ago, Cryosphere. said:

    As a wise man once said...short term pain for longer term gain.

    In a way yes. The Azores high ridging North is often the way this starts. There is little west to east forcing now. It is a case of the high holding until such time we get the full amplification. What we are hoping for then is the reversal of the flow from the east where the cold is waiting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Thanks, and most of them have the lilac border = Atlantic ridge until the last set with massive uncertainty as would be expected...I don’t think this is a bad set of clusters at all.  

    Just the amount of clusters shows the uncertainty very good. I think we need to give it just some more days, by weekend there should be a better prospect of today’s ssw in the charts. It happened just now and we don’t know what outcome it will have, split or displacement. That are huge differences to be calculated...

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    26 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I'll raise you a UKV

    viewimage.thumb.png.002eb6441edb233494e8ec79154ab150.png

    In fairness the UKMO charts even on meteociel did suggest it was a much drier run than the GFS as it was showing a straight line northerly hence slightly colder uppers for England.

    The GFS is likely to be overdoing it but would not rule out some surprises if there is an shallow low or kinks which intensify the weather front. Slightly different set up but I recalled an event in Feb 2012 where SE Scotland and NE England got a good number of hours of heavy snow because the front from the west waved even though the BBC forecast from the day before did not suggest a heavy snow event was even going to happen.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    35 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Some fresh 12z EC Scenarios

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    The anomalies look like they might be going somewhere, but it's always useful to look where there are no anomalies and then mentally put what you'd normally expect to see there. At T360, In cluster 1 and 2, you'd expect higher heights just to our south, and that would give cold difficulties in getting through the UK, as westerlies tend to go on top of heights - colder air might get part way through the country on cluster 1 due to Scandi low, could be perhaps be a snowy wedge scenario but that's taking creative licence. Cluster 3 means even deeper lows than usual through the UK but perhaps cold/snow on the northern flank. Cluster 4 is a bit like the op at day 10. The only cluster likely to usher in serious cold on the date shown is cluster 5 - heights to the north, jet south, likely to get us south of the polar jet.

    All this is too detailed for D15 but the point is - height anomalies towards the NW won't produce cold for the UK without complementary negative anomalies in the right places too. Much better chances north than south. 

     

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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