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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    2 Day 10 charts to keep and review. All in all a good evening. 👍

    20033AB2-84D5-4FE3-BED3-51A085EF9295.png

    468B4C8D-C5DF-4A46-AD04-CF3D4B91774B.png

     

    The BFTE Feb 2018 was forecast 10 days out on the charts so very promising without getting carried away ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

    Is this what you envisaged in your prophesy BA?

    image.thumb.png.e7d2df9774a4b0a3316a3a41e5ad52ae.png

    Surely there’s no way that ridge would gain that kind of northward traction with the MJO in phase 3 without some semblance of downwelling?

    Then again, the Jan phase 3 Nina composite does perhaps allow for a trough stalling to the west...

    image.thumb.png.7b749251d639475b1b7534be6f1c6fb5.png

    Combine this with aforementioned downwelling and the hints of that ridge on other models... perhaps we can give this day 10 EC slightly more credence than usual???

     

    Please can you show phases 4 and 5?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

    Mean charts are overrated. 

    They are in terms of predicting what will happen but can be useful for predicting what most definitely wont, and usually in the UK that means anything resembling a pasting.

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    One question, where was everyone until right at the end? 

    Significant changes early on, make what you will. 

    👍

    We are all watching quietly  and waiting to get to 144hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Well the latest ECM is no surprise to me high pressure pushing north and looking like the

    first glimpse of SSW that every body has been waiting for.Icon 180 hrs chart was giving the 

    first insight let’s see what materialises,most had chucked their hats into the ring time to put it 

    back on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    25 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I don't like it as much as the para, but it has a similar theme.

    gfsnh-0-192 (3).png

    Its similar to how the ssw in feb 18 starting to get modelled

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

    image.thumb.png.cbf000b225461f1bf95266a008ec0f09.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    ECM looks like a SSW response? Sudden reduction in North Atlantic zonal component?

    It's a pity we cannot see the strat data right away. But the theory that quick changes in the output would appear after the technical SSW happened, seems to get confirmation again.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

    image.thumb.png.cbf000b225461f1bf95266a008ec0f09.png

    Possibly spain😂😂😂😂 seriously it's 10 days away but with any undercutting could bring an easterly 

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    It's a pity we cannot see the strat data right away. But the theory that quick changes in the output would appear after the technical SSW happened, seems to get confirmation again.

    Model latency is key. 00z now loaded with interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Its similar to how the ssw in feb 18 starting to get modelled

    That's what's worrying me, Scott... if I remember rightly, 2019's SSW-related BFTE was also modelled well in advance? Now, where did I leave those briquettes!?:drunk-emoji:

    The weather can make eejits out of us all?🤔

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    To have any confidence at all in the ECM op, we certainly need the EPS mean to resemble it a lot more than the GEFS mean does, thats a fact.

    image.thumb.png.c269d8343bb401cdd5d06e6805f3763a.png

    I agree, we have seen them flip but would be good to see them resemble the t240 ecm. Gfs has two opportunities prior to next ecm. I think you would still have raised an eyebrow at the ecm tho.😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    It cant be theres no chance of this ssw turning us cold. I read it on netweather!

    Haha

    Jokes aside id take getting to this point on the 15th crammed full of potential and real cold on the continent this time

    We have high pressure slap bang over the Azores at 144-168h. Strangy enough this is quite a common pre-SSW response pattern. 

    archives-2018-2-19-0-0.png

    archives-2013-1-6-0-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    6 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

    image.thumb.png.cbf000b225461f1bf95266a008ec0f09.png

    Allow the arrows to guide you, there’s no way that high will fall back into the med as long as the low (Black line heads to Italy then the high (red arrow) moves to Scandi and voila the beast comes along the blue arrow. At least that’s how I see the 48 hours following. 

    3BB0F3EC-6DB4-4265-86AD-B3130CC4AC5E.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    9 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

    image.thumb.png.cbf000b225461f1bf95266a008ec0f09.png

    Over Canada and  a western based -ao.😉

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    12 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Well the latest ECM is no surprise to me high pressure pushing north and looking like the

    first glimpse of SSW that every body has been waiting for.Icon 180 hrs chart was giving the 

    first insight let’s see what materialises,most had chucked their hats into the ring time to put it 

    back on.

    But the ssw reaction wouldn’t yet be showing in the models. It’s going to take at least 14 days or so to show

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    13 minutes ago, Griff said:

    One question, where was everyone until right at the end? 

    Significant changes early on, make what you will. 

    👍

    I’m watching Mr Griff 🙂ECM and GFS// are trending in a good way . I’m just a bit gutted with the way the models went titts up the last few days but today’s a new day . All aboard the Siberian train 🚂. 🥶

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    007233B9-0FF2-4211-8FF5-1E306ED7CEBA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    8 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

    There are signs of that gap to our north gaining traction now. A parting of the waves with the main section of the pv on the Siberian side. 

    gfsnh-0-216.png

    I knew it wouldn't take long for the ecm to latch on. Jan 47 revisited. 

    ECH1-192.gif

    ECH1-216.gif

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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