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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

bluearmy

By bluearmy
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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DanDorsetUK Community Regular

DanDorsetUK

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Posted

Only just caught up with developments. I would suggest people dont stress about the models flipping at the moment. I would suggest people read the latest updates about the SSW before making any conclusions as to where this may or may not go. Also have a read of PV forecasts latest posts on twitter. I cant post charts on here as it's not model related. But just take every single model run with a bucket load of salt right now!

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted

Just got a beer in readyness 

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Anyone else a tad nervous for the 12zs? 

A good ECM and UKMO would bring the house down!

giphy.thumb.gif.a9e886e9fdbdff387d433c83462bd108.gif

 

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V for Very Cold Aficionado

V for Very Cold

Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
Posted
1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

Just got a beer in readyness 

 

Sounds a mighty fine idea...just to steady the nerves !

What times kickoff? Lol

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, icedust said:

 

image.thumb.png.051021a5c304d92f5ccffa4edc36c8bd.png

image.thumb.png.f54ca08a5370810ac7ca376465d53f6b.png

 

They both show a mid atlantic ridge with the northerly over the UK, OK one has a depression over us but the signal is clear, Cold. 

 

Good post. One thing I've noticed over recent runs day 10 and onwards is less of a signal for a block over Davis Strait / far NE Canada and more of signal for a Greenland / mid-Atlantic ridge from recent GFS ops, but also from EPS mean to move the ridge further east, compared to previous guidance. This works more in our favour - as it lessens the risks of the retrograding block moving away to our west and the risk associated of a west-based -NAO.

Edited by Nick F
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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
1 minute ago, V for Very Cold said:

Sounds a mighty fine idea...just to steady the nerves !

What times kickoff? Lol

Now!

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Snowjokes92 Aficionado

Snowjokes92

Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
Posted
10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Anyone else a tad nervous for the 12zs? 

A good ECM and UKMO would bring the house down!

giphy.thumb.gif.a9e886e9fdbdff387d433c83462bd108.gif

Yes. My stomach doing somersaults. Very important 12z, but i don't think it will still be resolved for short term prospects.

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Brocken Spectre Apprentice

Brocken Spectre

Posted
  • Location: Halling, Nth Kent
  • Location: Halling, Nth Kent
Posted

Not great with finding the right charts, but has anyone got todays version of this, thinks its about 288hrs.  It was the SSW of 2018 and about the same timeframe before that crazy 7/10 days.  Wondering if there was any similarities??

 

Feb 2018

1002597380_gfsnh-1-276(1).thumb.png.6dc6d4a110a723f46acc5dbfb4fb5e5f.png

 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
  • Author
Posted
Just now, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.01a2785b17537226c7e282f621c90310.pngICON 12Z UP first

It’s not moving away from the ridge extension to our north days 4/5 .....that’s expected but it doesn’t look like it’s headed in gfs direction .....

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted

The icon is throwing up another solition not like any other model

The model volidity is expected but atm its wild!

This ssw really is sending models into a frenzy!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.fbf03a99ebf27efbfcce4834489c9150.png ICON backs down, nonetheless stil different to ECM.

Edited by Snowman.
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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

I'd say its moving slowly towards ECM and UKMO

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

168 and icon has us in a light W/SW flow under high pressure. Not the start we wanted to the 12's

Screenshot 2021-01-03 at 15.29.02.png

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, AFCBSNOW said:

On what basis?

The 2 charts I have just posted - both at 144 - they look very nearly identical

Edited by MJB
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Yes, the 12z ICON outputs a flatter solution.  Will this trend continue?   Will the big two back down?  We'll all know within a couple of hours or so...

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AFCBSNOW Contributor

AFCBSNOW

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, MJB said:

The 2 charts I have just posted - both at 144

Those T+144 charts are the on the edge of FI at the moment.  Back ground synoptic, as shown on earlier posts are just not backing this up.

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

I wouldn't worry what the Icon shows its a mickey mouse model just like the JMA and GEM. Comparing the Icon to the UKMO and ECM is like comparing a degree in religious studies or art to a degree in pure mathmatics and physics! 

All I care about right now from the 12z is how the UKMO and ECM turnout. A good gfs to match wouldn't go amiss but less important.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Good luck all for this run  - Look forward to the discussions as they help me understand the models .. which have so many features to them.

Buckle up.. bring a crash helmet and be prepared to duck...

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