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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    Just now, Harsh Climate said:

    Will be a dusting at best. The Highlands and southern uplands will eat most of it up, to be finally finished of by the dales..

    Not sure about this. It's a trough, not a showery feed.

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
    35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    You couldn't make it up, genuine frigid air, blizzards practically as far as the deep South of America while air approaching -32 (way colder than the North pole about to go over the great lakes of Northern USA.

    Yep record breaking cold for the yanks. Literally killing temperatures if that were to come off. Whilst we would be stuck with +13c South westerly zephyrs. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

    Yep record breaking cold for the yanks. Literally killing temperatures if that were to come off. Whilst we would be stuck with +13c South westerly zephyrs. 

    Yep, now you just watch these lala land fantasy charts tick down seemlessly to T0. Just because it's the states 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    37 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    The period 20th - 30th is fast becoming a period of interest. There are certainly signs now of modlling picking up on goings on at the top of the atmosphere.

    I feel this weekends models runs could perk up some more interest again.

    The period around 200 hours is certainly peaking my interest with a potential cross polar flow developing although it is only tentative signs atm

    Hello Scott! I really want to go along with this, as I’m sure are others.

     

    Can you help me out on it please? as all I’m seeing at present are signs pointing towards this SSW being a miss for our part of the world – we are not talking one rouge operational that was screwed by a random Short-wave we are talking whole-sale changes to the Macro pattern coming into the models from the turn of the year.

     

    EC46 from last night.

    MO update ( Glosea I presume ) backing away from sustained cold in long range.

    GFS Ensembles – the latest being a case in point to me with two things in particular telling to me – the steady, not bumpy increase in temputures and the  fact the even the very best ensemble member at day 14 only got to -9 you would think if there was any inkling of something afoot that we would at least be blessed with some stonking ensemble to view.

     

    Things took a turn for the worse for Coldies pretty much as the SSW came into reality and became factored as actual starting data – I don’t believe SSW shuffling the pack has ever been  in question, but do we also need to start accepting that with the info we have to hand, along with the trends that on this occasion when the music stops from the SSW we in the UK are going to be left without a cold chair.

     

    Thank you 😊

    Edited by TSNWK
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    image.thumb.png.f225d477e92c0a2f035754d133e3ec1a.pngimage.thumb.png.c0190e4f4386103c19540dc54d07f247.pngYes i know i shouldn't be comparing to 2018 but i noticed these similarities , with some differences in the NH profile , but i wanted to point out the high pushing north from UK on GFS para today

    This may be useless, what do you guys think?

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

    Just like this...

    07/01 00:00...going...

    093418ED-8707-4104-8379-E7B3AD6D9355.thumb.png.fb10157e3ca11a9b5fa5b1ffbeb87d68.png
     

    09:00...going...

    45FFDC9B-75CA-4495-9968-AE7FF1F49806.thumb.png.09b7961078039ab5ad03ccc04d6da7f6.png
     

    12:00...almost gone...

    BAA89C2D-BF94-4009-8AD9-A9B8A4C6C4A9.thumb.png.1344f72c0c6f34ffb419f06e20a8ec2a.png183728DC-F6AD-4439-8D67-40EC868068B6.thumb.png.484daaa330c6abd93cd6a80180feec26.png
     

    As @Kasim Awan mentioned though  could squeeze out a centimetre or two in parts of NW England - obviously another wee nowcasting/radar/looking out the window special.

    This is because the UKMO makes much less of the trough, not because the set up itself can not deliver. I wouldn't completely disregard the risk of the GFS/ICON being closer to the mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    38 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    The period 20th - 30th is fast becoming a period of interest. There are certainly signs now of modlling picking up on goings on at the top of the atmosphere.

    I feel this weekends models runs could perk up some more interest again.

    The period around 200 hours is certainly peaking my interest with a potential cross polar flow developing although it is only tentative signs atm

    I rather hope it will be long before the weekend .........if it’s not until the weekend then I think the train will be further delayed to the back end of the month ......

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    I would keep an eye on the 500mb heights modelled for 48-72h as the trough passes over the UK. Ideally these need to be pretty strong (near 530mb at 500hpa).

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    33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    😏

    346C244D-8987-452B-9C9E-3283CE12EC6D.jpeg

    Writing has been on the wall for a few days now for a warm up, this is as conclusive as it gets. 

    Must now look to the SSW to start taking effect, although no guarantee that will yield any cold for the UK.

    Hopefully things change within the next 2-3 weeks while we still have some proper winter left or it will soon be time to start dusting down the BBQ.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    ECM > UKMO.

    UW72-21 (1).gif

    ECM1-72 (3).gif

    Similar to my eyes? Maybe that's the point I don't know as no commentary to explain 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Similar to my eyes? Maybe that's the point I don't know as no commentary to explain 🙂

    Slightly better trough development over the UK which improves any precipitation. So whilst the UKMO with it's very weak trough is a little isolated here, this doesn't rule it out. Just need to keep watching.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I rather hope it will be long before the weekend .........if it’s not until the weekend then I think the train will be further delayed to the back end of the month ......

    Fingers crossed but at 11/12 days away i would suggest it still being within an envelope for change although you would hope to see signs on clusters means and ensembles before then

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

    Similar to my eyes? Maybe that's the point I don't know as no commentary to explain 🙂

    Slight differences but perhaps huge differences to the weather locally? ECM still looks similar to the GFS that might pep up the front heading southwards as it waves whilst the UKMO on the face of it looks drier but colder. 

    No doubt its going to turn less cold but let's be honest, has anyone actually enjoyed this easterly wind? I certainly havant and be glad too see the back of it.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Ecm more amplified than 24 hours ago, what was this morning's run like? 

    ECH1-120.gif

    ECH1-144.gif

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Surprisingly, the capital of Spain, Madrid will be a lot colder than here in the UK with lows forecasted to be around -8, and a lot snowier. Could get a bit of snow in the north of the country on Thursday tho. Afterwards, its the usual wet, cool weather we normally get.

    e7Z48unilM.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    35 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

    Yep record breaking cold for the yanks. Literally killing temperatures if that were to come off. Whilst we would be stuck with +13c South westerly zephyrs. 

    Similar to last year America had record breaking cold whilst we were very mild could be a repeat performance 😕

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Ecm more amplified than 24 hours ago, what was this morning's run like? 

    ECH1-120.gif

    ECH1-144.gif

    Starting to look GFSP like... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    I would say closer to GEM

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, topo said:

    I would say closer to GEM

    Hadn't occurred for me to check 😂

    Yes, low to North is closer, further south. 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    7 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    Surprisingly, the capital of Spain, Madrid will be a lot colder than here in the UK with lows forecasted to be around -8, and a lot snowier. Could get a bit of snow in the north of the country on Thursday tho. Afterwards, its the usual wet, cool weather we normally get.

    e7Z48unilM.gif

    Maybe elevation a factor re Madrid as it is 2200 ft asl?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Far more interesting than Spain's weather 😉 

    ECH1-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Slight differences but perhaps huge differences to the weather locally? ECM still looks similar to the GFS that might pep up the front heading southwards as it waves whilst the UKMO on the face of it looks drier but colder. 

    No doubt its going to turn less cold but let's be honest, has anyone actually enjoyed this easterly wind? I certainly havant and be glad too see the back of it.

    No not really apart from 45 minutes lol!

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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