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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Yes day 10, yes for fun, yes GFSP 

    Knock knock... 

    gfsnh-1-240 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    It was around this juncture on the GFS// 06z that an area of high pressure moved from the North Pacific straight through the pole to Greenland.

    An Eastward shift but it will still go on its travels and try to link with ours

    image.thumb.png.68959503cc94e4c94019bc4421b68be5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Looks like the control is picking up on the Heighths early doors. Be interesting to see what ec 12z does shortly. Frustrating atm the but have to say getting interesting be it all subject to massive swings 🤔🤔

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    An Eastward shift but it will still go on its travels and try to link with ours

    image.thumb.png.68959503cc94e4c94019bc4421b68be5.png

    The OP goes for it this time

    image.thumb.png.9142f3ece5c936de621fba80ebb8ff98.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    Yanks getting pummelled with day after tomorrow charts, No wonder they don't believe in global warming their winters are as cold as they've ever been!

     

    image.thumb.png.d576856daf84d3234c976e9a0edfc6e3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

    Yanks getting pummelled with day after tomorrow charts, No wonder they don't believe in global warming their winters are as cold as they've ever been!

     

    image.thumb.png.d576856daf84d3234c976e9a0edfc6e3.png

    Not sure it will end up as it’s showing there. They’ve actually had a fairly benign winter so far. 

    All the very potent cold is still over the Siberia area. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    PV lobe drops into CONUS, temp differential kicks the Jet Stream into overdrive, we get clobbered by low after low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    PV lobe drops into CONUS, temp differential kicks the Jet Stream into overdrive, we get clobbered by low after low.

    I would take a little kicking for how that's shaping up

    anim_rqw8.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    Yanks getting pummelled with day after tomorrow charts, No wonder they don't believe in global warming their winters are as cold as they've ever been!

     

    image.thumb.png.d576856daf84d3234c976e9a0edfc6e3.png

    You couldn't make it up, genuine frigid air, blizzards practically as far as the deep South of America while air approaching -32 (way colder than the North pole about to go over the great lakes of Northern USA.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    I would take a little kicking for how that's shaping up

    anim_rqw8.gif

    No you don't, that is an extreme west based NAO, and all we will get is storm after storm. That high will rotate over the top of the Canada with the jet pointing to the north of us if it went on.

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    The last frame is a redux of 2019 , the daughter vortices ended up exactly where we didn’t want and triggered endless lows via temp gradient 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    No you don't, that is an extreme west based NAO, and all we will get is storm after storm. That high will rotate over the top of the Canada with the jet pointing to the north of us if it went on.

    Well we will  never know will we?

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
    10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    The OP goes for it this time

    image.thumb.png.9142f3ece5c936de621fba80ebb8ff98.png

    Now thats an Omega/Greenland high, 😛incoming!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Okay then (and I know that t+384 charts are about as much use as Katy Price's applications to MENSA) but there's still bugger all, at Day 16!😁

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

    The period 20th - 30th is fast becoming a period of interest. There are certainly signs now of modlling picking up on goings on at the top of the atmosphere.

    I feel this weekends models runs could perk up some more interest again.

    The period around 200 hours is certainly peaking my interest with a potential cross polar flow developing although it is only tentative signs atm

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    😏

    346C244D-8987-452B-9C9E-3283CE12EC6D.jpeg

    Well I think we can conclusively say that GFS has made it's mind up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    You couldn't make it up, genuine frigid air, blizzards practically as far as the deep South of America while air approaching -32 (way colder than the North pole about to go over the great lakes of Northern USA.

    Always the same every year. Never ever go without...EVER!

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Wrf showing a good few hours of snow overnight into Friday. Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester take note.

    nmmuk-1-63-0.png

    Will be a dusting at best. The Highlands and southern uplands will eat most of it up, to be finally finished off by the dales..

    Edited by Harsh Climate
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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    You just know this SSW is going to benefit the states, they've had a real lack of cold so far this winter. The deep cold will head straight for North America, fire up the jet stream and give us a soaking as always. Seriously hope I'm wrong, but you just get that feeling!

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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