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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny
  • Location: South Cheshire

    First time I've read this thread this winter, so we are having another SSW, isn't that 3 years on the trot now?

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The anomalies may have shown decent high latitude blocking and indeed we did see that occur, the issue was the relative warmth in the Arctic from where the air mass originated, so by the time it got here the upper were marginal and not good enough for most.

    The models are already showing proper cold piling out from the Arctic due to the SSW, what remains to be seen is whether we can tap into it.

    Just saying, give it a week or two.

    Well on that we concur, but i stress, it was about potential rather then actual and thats why i for one was expecting something colder to develop.

    Im not referring to the SSW, the colder then average spell we are having now is as a result of the building northern blocking that started in November. Every proper cold spell we have had was via northern blocking.... but not every northern block resulted in a cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    To illustrate the potential we have.....

    One chart is todays, the other from the height of the BFTE in 2018. It shows IMHO why that blessed Azores ridge has scuppered current chances, for if it wasnt for that, it it had been absorbed into the Greenland block, then the chart would have been extremely close to the 2018 chart that delivered a proper cold spell. .... Potential.

     

    814day.03 mid jan.gif

    tbfte.gif

    Edited by mushymanrob
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    14 minutes ago, CongletonHeat said:

    First time I've read this thread this winter, so we are having another SSW, isn't that 3 years on the trot now?

    We had one in 2018,and the one in 2019 was not favourable for us at all,and was more of a displacement event..Last year the Vortex ran at record strength,and was 100% intact...so 3 of the last 4 years have brought one.. So perhaps they seem to be increasing in frequency.

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    16 minutes ago, CongletonHeat said:

    First time I've read this thread this winter, so we are having another SSW, isn't that 3 years on the trot now?

    Your correct, 2018 successful,2019 not so much! 2021 who knows! 
    they say 1-3 SSWfail so by rights if 2019 was a failure then this should be our time!!

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    MJO to offer some assistance past mid month? Could explain the westerly push we are seeing over the next 7-10 days while it passes through phases 3 and 4

     

    diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member (2).gif

    Phase 7 would be better..

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The anomalies may have shown decent high latitude blocking and indeed we did see that occur, the issue was the relative warmth in the Arctic from where the air mass originated, so by the time it got here the upper were marginal and not good enough for most.

    The models are already showing proper cold piling out from the Arctic due to the SSW, what remains to be seen is whether we can tap into it.

    Just saying, give it a week or two.

    Did the air from any of the cold spells we have so far arrive from the artic? I am not sure it has.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    52 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    So less cold unsettled conditions in to next week I don’t think it’s going to last long meto update colder weather from Scandinavia coming across North Sea but where mild cold meet significant snow fall..

    Problem they change more than my wife's moods plus that's the extended period into February?. Guess time will tell, again 

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    I know you concentrate on the NOAA anomolies charts, but do you know if the EC / GPS version pick up on this before the GPS model runs?

    To some extent, usually EC is better than GFS 500 anomaly but neither give as solid a pattern, usually, as NOAA.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Panic over.

    Check out Met Office update!

    Significant snowfall alert!

    Amazing 🏃🏃😂😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    35 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    With a considerably weakened tropospheric Vortex and a couple of recent tweets, suggesting the split will take the core cold over Eurasia rather than USA, I am getting a tad exited

    Simon lee

    January update to

    @ECMWF

    SEAS5 showing strong support for a negative NAO during Jan & Feb. I suspect that the shift from previous forecasts arises from the now sig. weakened strat vortex, for which there was not a strong signal in the Dec fcst. 

     

    Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

     

    Judah uses the GFS

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
    15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Panic over.

    Check out Met Office update!

    Significant snowfall alert!

    If you live in the north.

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    Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
    44 minutes ago, fromey said:

    Your correct, 2018 successful,2019 not so much! 2021 who knows! 
    they say 1-3 SSWfail so by rights if 2019 was a failure then this should be our time!!

    I know 2020 was a year we  all want to forget, but it did exist . Honestly. And no we didnt have a ssw last year. So 3 out of 4.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

     

    Judah uses the GFS

    Yes I was going to say he uses GFS which model uses  more layers. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
    3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    If you live in the north.

    You are right mate the update isn't that great really. OK for Scotland and pennines that's about all and that's not until end of the month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    No more in here on METO extended, please use that thread for discussion.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Panic over.

    Check out Met Office update!

    Significant snowfall alert!

    Keeping the model related.

    Mo update is no longer as confident that SSW will impact our part of the word in a positive manner for coldies.

    Displaced vortex in Atlantic is my take currently, illustrated in EC46 which to my eyes suggested that it is actually this week we have our best chance of cold.

    I'm increasing minded that now the SSW is upon us the models are picking up on reality and not forecasted starting data.

    It just seems to have flipped recently at the same time as SSW started to show it's hand in reality

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    So anyway. The models showing if nothing else it will hopefully staying fairly dry for the areas affected with flooding recently. Pressure fairly good so non to bad 🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    34 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Judah Cohen saying the opposite, with NE US going cold, Also saying best chance of Snow for NW Europe is this week. Who will be correct ?

     

    Judah uses the GFS

    Going by my experience it won't be Judah as he busts quite often going by recent years and using the gfs...but knowing our luck.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
    1 hour ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    So less cold unsettled conditions in to next week I don’t think it’s going to last long meto update colder weather from Scandinavia coming across North Sea but where mild cold meet significant snow fall..

    Early days yet regarding Scandinavian high,as Marco P states SSW could go either way,but mixed bag of weather

    next week with an uptick in temperatures before something very exciting after.Fingers crossed for the white 

    stuff over all U.K. rather than just the north.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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