Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Jason M 3,229]

GFSP looks much the better of the two, but sadly it just doesn't look right to me. GFS main run looks closer to the mark simply because with heights parked over Iberia a period of westerly (or even SW!!) winds is inevitable. UK simply won't get a decent cold spell with that set up. The question then becomes one of how long do the heights to our south remain? Not convinced by the GFS opp that its long lasting as in FI the models tend to just run with climatology once they get to that position. A few days of westerly winds look nailed on for me though. Whether that becomes longer, is still open to debate.

If we lose the heights to our south quickly we remain in the game, if not then we stay mild (or relatively so).

[danm 11,147]

6 minutes ago, Eastbourneguy said:

Did somebody order some -AO descending down from the strat?

 

5 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

You can't say SSW is not having an impact but it seems Europe somehow once again manages to end up in the middle of nothing on this run. Slight shift westwards and we would be in the game but will we get it? Not feeling that optimistic after reading the strat thread. Seems like the hype of days past has quickly dissapeared. 

Need to get rid of those pesky Iberian heights. 

[feb1991blizzard 23,094]

15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Huge Arctic high, need that low in the Atlantic to disapate though.

Does this mirror the EC strat charts?

Is the remaining energy in the Atlantic what @feb1991blizzard was warning of?

 

Yes - Generally i am a tiny bit more optimistic this morning but this is a hurdle, the good news is its a long way off but the bad news is these smaller features can send a potent cold spell down the drain suddenly popping up at a lot earlier timescales than that.

See it ends up very decent run but without that feature, it could have ended up one of the greatest runs of all time.

Edited January 5 by feb1991blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 23,505]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

How high do people think the risk is that the easterlies in the strat don’t reach the Troposphere ? To my mind most models don’t see much of a downwelling yet? Perhaps give it a few days and see where we are 🤔 PS finally a few flakes in the snow desert of East Anglia this morning 

I will quote Matt H on this.. some are pointing out ESTLYS won't make it down to the trop which is always possible especially when the strat doesn't split. But keep in mind we don't have dominant Wstlys in the trop anyway that need reversing so the trop continues to be pre conditioned to blocking. I've noticed some are getting a little anxious regarding these preceedings.I mentioned to Marco P last night that the EC 46 had completely flipped with its outlook compared to last week,and that we are in the very early stages of what comes next with the SSW..and basically he agreed...its early yet and we need to sit back and wait on how this impacts us moving forward..There are also signs of further warming coming in the next few weeks. This upcoming spell will trend milder for a while,but I don't expect it to revert to the climatology normal...So perhaps we just have to wait with a little patience on the coming next couple of weeks.

And remember folks...YOU MUST STAY AT HOME! wouldn't it be nice for a change if he had to issue that warning because of severe Wintry conditions.. perhaps later this month one hopes.

Edited January 5 by MATTWOLVES

[Cold Winter Night 930]

A lot of unnecessary negativity here this morning.

Leaving the IMBY chart viewing aside for a moment I still see the same positive trends in the models:

- Arctic Heights increasingly a feature in the model runs.
- EC and GFS in FI still show increasing Heights to our North.
- A lobe of the vortex moves to North America. That seems to scare many folks, but really, for a good cold spell we need that to prop up heights in the West Greenland/Iceland/Scandi area. Study the legendary cold spells from the past and you'll find those low heights over the Hudson Bay.
- The Western Russia/Kazakhstan heights are modelled to disappear. Making room for the cold to move West.

I think those development are SSW related. And they might pay off in a while.

Speaking of the strat: I don't see experts who say the SSW won't have an effect. I see that they are saying that they don't know what will happen, which is something entirely different.
Let's be honest: They don't know, we don't know, the models certainly don't know. Patience is still required, we will have to wait and see how this pans out.
Also, take @johnholmes advice and watch changes day-to-day instead of run-to-run, your heart will thank you for it.

[IDO 8,473]

Hopefully the current modelling are not showing a qtr as it looks to fall badly for the UK, at least initially. The d12 means for our area viz cold:

So looking to return to around the average by then (high probability).

No change in the main cluster, which is a tri-wave/trough setup over the East conus, Asia/W Pacific and Europe. The UK on the periphery of the really cold air:

d12> 

So the UK missing out with the initial drop of cold if this is a qtr response. The above seems quite likely based on the Arctic high, Iberian waves and Alaskan ridge combo. If this is just the Arctic high directing traffic and the qtr response will show in the models in a few days, that might reboot this current signal which seems prime-time winter waste?

[Polar Maritime 16,606]

Can we please use the PM System for other chat, thanks.

[Cavehill Snow 80]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Yep, im now off the long cold bandwagon... theres no getting around what the charts are predicting and now the anomaly charts are showing ridging to our near southwest, its game over *for this spell* , It must be said that the GFS picked up on this before the anomalies did.... a rare occurrance.

I know you concentrate on the NOAA anomolies charts, but do you know if the EC / GPS version pick up on this before the GPS model runs?

[mushymanrob 9,518]

Realism?

The reality is that we , by the weekend, will have had nearly 2 weeks of below average temps with snow falling somewhere in the UK nearly every day.

The reality is that for a while now theres been a lot of optimism that a decent cold spell will develop and many model runs have supported that, with the strong suggestion that this winter was heading to become a noteable one.

The reality is that its almost certain now to have had the potential snapped away from us by an Azores ridge that wasnt supposed to be there! lol.  Indeed if it wasnt for the Azores high, the anomaly charts would very closely resemble the same charts for the BFTE in both march 2013 and 2018.

The reality is that we have landed on a bl**dy great snake and have slid down several levels, and that might take a while to recover from, if at all.

The reality is that the models have gradually, and painfully, backed off from producing a major cold spell after they had offered so much potential.

Thats the reality of model watching in the UK!

[mushymanrob 9,518]

9 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

I know you concentrate on the NOAA anomolies charts, but do you know if the EC / GPS version pick up on this before the GPS model runs?

hi

In a word - no... because i dont use them and i believe they are the mean charts for the ECM and GFS so would pick up the chancges as the GFS/ECM came out?

[MATTWOLVES 23,505]

14 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

It really does frustrate me on here..how so many folk think we are heading for cold weather and snow,what we have just had is nothing unusual for winter but of course people go over the top.look at the models today there is no sign of significant cold mainly a return of West southwesterlies it's just boring rubbish weather not very winter type.it's same every year isn't it?people just tend to say what they want to happen rather then being realistic.

Some of your points make sense...namely the current cold snap is nothing out of the ordinary..But its positive that we have been able to achieve this early in the season...and yes compared to Winters past its nothing at all exceptional.What most are looking for in here is to see how this warming effects us! I don't even think the models are picking up on anything at this early stage. Probably due to the fact the downwelling has not reached the trop yet...thats if it does at all..We can't be sure at this stage. We should know more in the next several days if the models start flagging up much colder scenarios in fi..there are know guarantees this warming will benefit us though...you don't need to be a professor to work that one out. But even if this one fails,there will most likely be other attempts in the coming weeks which will allow us to roll the dice again,with the hope we will become lucky again. Either way the pattern still looks different to me,and far better than the last fee years.Like you say there are know signs of major cold in the output at this moment in time,but thats not to say there won't be come the end of the week. We have 8 weeks of Meteorological Winter left,so I would say keep the faith and just await the next few days for things to start cropping up at short notice.

[fromey 2,345]

Just been looking throught the archives from the 2018 BTFE and it strikes me that we went through a simular patten back then, the difference from then to now is the lack of PV sat over greenland.

i have taken some charts at 3 days apart below. from the 13th Feb to the 23rd Feb

you can see some waxing and waining of the HP to the south, we get winds from most quaters during the run up from the 13th Feb when the SSW started leading up to the 23rd FEB when the High got scandinavia 

now im not saying its nailed on or is going to come off like this, we may have to indure a less cold period before and if the cards fall in our favour. but somthing to keep in mind before writing the rest of the winter off.

Edited January 5 by fromey
spelling

[mountain shadow 9,828]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

The reality is that the models have gradually, and painfully, backed off from producing a major cold spell after they had offered so much potential.

 

What models have shown this Mushy? I must have missed it. Other than the odd FI Boom chart, I have seen nothing to say that a major cold spell was on the way.

The SSW has only just started today, and no one can say just yet if we will benefit.

Personally, my marker date is the 21st January, and if we're not in, or close to being in a proper cold by then, then I'll throw in the towel.

 

[BurwellWeatherWatch 337]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What models have shown this Mushy? I must have missed it. Other than the odd FI Boom chart, I have seen nothing to say that a major cold spell was on the way.

The SSW has only just started today, and no one can say just yet if we will benefit.

Personally, my marker date is the 21st January, and if we're not in, or close to being in a proper cold by then, then I'll throw in the towel.

 

The models have shown a broad range of possibilities and outcomes - with some very appealing solutions close to the mid term. It would be disingenuous to say that everything has been in outlier FI...

Do you exclude August from the possibility of summery weather too?

[General Cluster 62,864]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What models have shown this Mushy? I must have missed it. Other than the odd FI Boom chart, I have seen nothing to say that a major cold spell was on the way.

The SSW has only just started today, and no one can say just yet if we will benefit.

Personally, my marker date is the 21st January, and if we're not in, or close to being in a proper cold by then, then I'll throw in the towel.

 

I agree MS; as far as I can recall (apart from occasional hints at deep cold becoming established over Northern Europe?) rumours of impending Snowmageddon have only come from snow rampers... And, as for today's 'fest', it's precisely what I expected, though the 'showers' have been somewhat heavier and longer-lasting than I thought! 

The lesson learned: Uppers of -7C do not suggest widespread snowfall, when the airmass started life with T850s in excess of 21C...? Had this air come from Artic climes (even if it had maintained -7C uppers throughout its journey) things would be very different, I think, due to lower dew points??🤔

Edited January 5 by General Cluster

[Purga 5,216]

Not sure if the uppers are cold enough for snow - very marginal...

Seriously though, some very cold runs showing up again but easily balanced out by the mild ones.

Keeps the interest alive whilst we see how / if the SSW delivers the goods.

Edited January 5 by Purga

[That ECM 9,020]

But some on the 5th of Jan can see winter is over🤣 The professionals can’t but...........

[General Cluster 62,864]

Time for the 06Z ens; which, if it's Snow Fest: The Movie you're looking for, are nae all that great:

    

    

But at least the NH profiles are still 'trending' toward that polar HP...🤔

    

    

So, who knows where things'll go, from here? Not I -- my crystal ball has gone all cloudy!😁

 

[TSNWK 2,584]

Oh no.. we have reached the wheeling out of 16 day in the future ensemble members for our virtual fix. 

 

[SLEETY 5,612]

Permutation 28 leading the way again,those are the sort of charts I would expect to be seeing soon when the SSW will be in full effect.

THe mild ramping bbc forecasters wont be able to cope with minus 20 uppers

invading from the other side of the North Sea🤣🥶

[mushymanrob 9,518]

45 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What models have shown this Mushy? I must have missed it. Other than the odd FI Boom chart, I have seen nothing to say that a major cold spell was on the way.

 

 

The anomalies to start with, for a long time now they have and still suggest a lot of northern blocking, particually over Greenland. Theres the Siberian/ural high too, for over a month we have been on the cusp of a Beasterly, the main problem has been high pressure south of the Siberian block which has and still is preventing the Eastward progression of the Atlantic systems, instead stalling them to our near East which is producing this cool mess we have today.

The point being that IF pressure had dropped over Southeastern Europe, then that would have allowed the southerly tracking jet to sail through, and open up the cold from the East.

The models have shown potential, this is what i and others like Scott had picked up on, and what gave the "boom" charts, whatever they are, some credence.

And dont forget, im no coldie.... so im not out to seek something that i dont believe is there.

[mountain shadow 9,828]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

The anomalies to start with, for a long time now they have and still suggest a lot of northern blocking, particually over Greenland. Theres the Siberian/ural high too, for over a month we have been on the cusp of a Beasterly, the main problem has been high pressure south of the Siberian block which has and still is preventing the Eastward progression of the Atlantic systems, instead stalling them to our near East which is producing this cool mess we have today.

The point being that IF pressure had dropped over Southeastern Europe, then that would have allowed the southerly tracking jet to sail through, and open up the cold from the East.

The models have shown potential, this is what i and others like Scott had picked up on, and what gave the "boom" charts, whatever they are, some credence.

And dont forget, im no coldie.... so im not out to seek something that i dont believe is there.

The anomalies may have shown decent high latitude blocking and indeed we did see that occur, the issue was the relative warmth in the Arctic from where the air mass originated, so by the time it got here the upper were marginal and not good enough for most.

The models are already showing proper cold piling out from the Arctic due to the SSW, what remains to be seen is whether we can tap into it.

Just saying, give it a week or two.

[Scandinavian High. 2,809]

So less cold unsettled conditions in to next week I don’t think it’s going to last long meto update colder weather from Scandinavia coming across North Sea but where mild cold meet significant snow fall..

Edited January 5 by Scandinavian High.

[MATTWOLVES 23,505]

Some interesting ensembles could be coming to a town near you 😄 I'm loving this one...talk about battle of the airmass...there would be some fun and games along the boundary lines of this one...Oh and for those of you who were not sure...we currently have an Omega Block in place...courtesy of Marco P.

[That ECM 9,020]

12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Oh no.. we have reached the wheeling out of 16 day in the future ensemble members for our virtual fix. 

 

But the point is that someone pics one and explains why this how it will look. Or more realistically people can’t and therefore all are possibilities. And that’s the point. 👍