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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    GFSP looks much the better of the two, but sadly it just doesn't look right to me. GFS main run looks closer to the mark simply because with heights parked over Iberia a period of westerly (or even SW!!) winds is inevitable. UK simply won't get a decent cold spell with that set up. The question then becomes one of how long do the heights to our south remain? Not convinced by the GFS opp that its long lasting as in FI the models tend to just run with climatology once they get to that position. A few days of westerly winds look nailed on for me though. Whether that becomes longer, is still open to debate.

    If we lose the heights to our south quickly we remain in the game, if not then we stay mild (or relatively so).

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    6 minutes ago, Eastbourneguy said:

    spacer.png

    Did somebody order some -AO descending down from the strat?

     

    5 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

    You can't say SSW is not having an impact but it seems Europe somehow once again manages to end up in the middle of nothing on this run. Slight shift westwards and we would be in the game but will we get it? Not feeling that optimistic after reading the strat thread. Seems like the hype of days past has quickly dissapeared. 

    image.thumb.png.3b94967f2700fd3a13faaf63b4a79386.png

    Need to get rid of those pesky Iberian heights. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Huge Arctic high, need that low in the Atlantic to disapate though.

    Does this mirror the EC strat charts?

    Is the remaining energy in the Atlantic what @feb1991blizzard was warning of?

     

    gfsnh-0-258 (1).png

    Yes - Generally i am a tiny bit more optimistic this morning but this is a hurdle, the good news is its a long way off but the bad news is these smaller features can send a potent cold spell down the drain suddenly popping up at a lot earlier timescales than that.

    See it ends up very decent run but without that feature, it could have ended up one of the greatest runs of all time.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Hopefully the current modelling are not showing a qtr as it looks to fall badly for the UK, at least initially. The d12 means for our area viz cold:

    gens-31-0-288.thumb.png.fba67419dc91016862ba3afce07947bd.pnggens-32-0-288.thumb.png.7963c9f82cf1e2ed74f7b4d3ab2e7566.png

    So looking to return to around the average by then (high probability).

    No change in the main cluster, which is a tri-wave/trough setup over the East conus, Asia/W Pacific and Europe. The UK on the periphery of the really cold air:

    d12>gensnh-31-1-288.thumb.png.a5bd061194075338cdfc252ffdec6250.pnggensnh-31-0-288.thumb.png.37e03d505e9d49eca4981e1192393a81.png 

    So the UK missing out with the initial drop of cold if this is a qtr response. The above seems quite likely based on the Arctic high, Iberian waves and Alaskan ridge combo. If this is just the Arctic high directing traffic and the qtr response will show in the models in a few days, that might reboot this current signal which seems prime-time winter waste?

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Can we please use the PM System for other chat, thanks.

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    2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Yep, im now off the long cold bandwagon... theres no getting around what the charts are predicting and now the anomaly charts are showing ridging to our near southwest, its game over *for this spell* , It must be said that the GFS picked up on this before the anomalies did.... a rare occurrance.

    I know you concentrate on the NOAA anomolies charts, but do you know if the EC / GPS version pick up on this before the GPS model runs?

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    9 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    I know you concentrate on the NOAA anomolies charts, but do you know if the EC / GPS version pick up on this before the GPS model runs?

    hi

    In a word - no... because i dont use them and i believe they are the mean charts for the ECM and GFS so would pick up the chancges as the GFS/ECM came out?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    14 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    It really does frustrate me on here..how so many folk think we are heading for cold weather and snow,what we have just had is nothing unusual for winter but of course people go over the top.look at the models today there is no sign of significant cold mainly a return of West southwesterlies it's just boring rubbish weather not very winter type.it's same every year isn't it?people just tend to say what they want to happen rather then being realistic.

    Some of your points make sense...namely the current cold snap is nothing out of the ordinary..But its positive that we have been able to achieve this early in the season...and yes compared to Winters past its nothing at all exceptional.What most are looking for in here is to see how this warming effects us! I don't even think the models are picking up on anything at this early stage. Probably due to the fact the downwelling has not reached the trop yet...thats if it does at all..We can't be sure at this stage. We should know more in the next several days if the models start flagging up much colder scenarios in fi..there are know guarantees this warming will benefit us though...you don't need to be a professor to work that one out. But even if this one fails,there will most likely be other attempts in the coming weeks which will allow us to roll the dice again,with the hope we will become lucky again. Either way the pattern still looks different to me,and far better than the last fee years.Like you say there are know signs of major cold in the output at this moment in time,but thats not to say there won't be come the end of the week. We have 8 weeks of Meteorological Winter left,so I would say keep the faith and just await the next few days for things to start cropping up at short notice.

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    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
    11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    What models have shown this Mushy? I must have missed it. Other than the odd FI Boom chart, I have seen nothing to say that a major cold spell was on the way.

    The SSW has only just started today, and no one can say just yet if we will benefit.

    Personally, my marker date is the 21st January, and if we're not in, or close to being in a proper cold by then, then I'll throw in the towel.

     

    The models have shown a broad range of possibilities and outcomes - with some very appealing solutions close to the mid term. It would be disingenuous to say that everything has been in outlier FI...

    Do you exclude August from the possibility of summery weather too?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    What models have shown this Mushy? I must have missed it. Other than the odd FI Boom chart, I have seen nothing to say that a major cold spell was on the way.

    The SSW has only just started today, and no one can say just yet if we will benefit.

    Personally, my marker date is the 21st January, and if we're not in, or close to being in a proper cold by then, then I'll throw in the towel.

     

    I agree MS; as far as I can recall (apart from occasional hints at deep cold becoming established over Northern Europe?) rumours of impending Snowmageddon have only come from snow rampers... And, as for today's 'fest', it's precisely what I expected, though the 'showers' have been somewhat heavier and longer-lasting than I thought! 

    The lesson learned: Uppers of -7C do not suggest widespread snowfall, when the airmass started life with T850s in excess of 21C...? Had this air come from Artic climes (even if it had maintained -7C uppers throughout its journey) things would be very different, I think, due to lower dew points??🤔

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Not sure if the uppers are cold enough for snow - very marginal...

    image.thumb.png.78b6eeea576621930f4ad1b61d29be3d.png

    image.thumb.png.30f3d62615f9aa0abd6220f7c668433e.png

    Seriously though, some very cold runs showing up again but easily balanced out by the mild ones.

    Keeps the interest alive whilst we see how / if the SSW delivers the goods.

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Time for the 06Z ens; which, if it's Snow Fest: The Movie you're looking for, are nae all that great::drunk-emoji:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    But at least the NH profiles are still 'trending' toward that polar HP...🤔

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    So, who knows where things'll go, from here? Not I -- my crystal ball has gone all cloudy!😁

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Oh no.. we have reached the wheeling out of 16 day in the future ensemble members for our virtual fix. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Permutation 28 leading the way again,those are the sort of charts I would expect to be seeing soon when the SSW will be in full effect.

    THe mild ramping bbc forecasters wont be able to cope with minus 20 uppers

    invading from the other side of the North Sea🤣🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    45 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    What models have shown this Mushy? I must have missed it. Other than the odd FI Boom chart, I have seen nothing to say that a major cold spell was on the way.

     

     

    The anomalies to start with, for a long time now they have and still suggest a lot of northern blocking, particually over Greenland. Theres the Siberian/ural high too, for over a month we have been on the cusp of a Beasterly, the main problem has been high pressure south of the Siberian block which has and still is preventing the Eastward progression of the Atlantic systems, instead stalling them to our near East which is producing this cool mess we have today.

    The point being that IF pressure had dropped over Southeastern Europe, then that would have allowed the southerly tracking jet to sail through, and open up the cold from the East.

    The models have shown potential, this is what i and others like Scott had picked up on, and what gave the "boom" charts, whatever they are, some credence.

    And dont forget, im no coldie.... so im not out to seek something that i dont believe is there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

    The anomalies to start with, for a long time now they have and still suggest a lot of northern blocking, particually over Greenland. Theres the Siberian/ural high too, for over a month we have been on the cusp of a Beasterly, the main problem has been high pressure south of the Siberian block which has and still is preventing the Eastward progression of the Atlantic systems, instead stalling them to our near East which is producing this cool mess we have today.

    The point being that IF pressure had dropped over Southeastern Europe, then that would have allowed the southerly tracking jet to sail through, and open up the cold from the East.

    The models have shown potential, this is what i and others like Scott had picked up on, and what gave the "boom" charts, whatever they are, some credence.

    And dont forget, im no coldie.... so im not out to seek something that i dont believe is there.

    The anomalies may have shown decent high latitude blocking and indeed we did see that occur, the issue was the relative warmth in the Arctic from where the air mass originated, so by the time it got here the upper were marginal and not good enough for most.

    The models are already showing proper cold piling out from the Arctic due to the SSW, what remains to be seen is whether we can tap into it.

    Just saying, give it a week or two.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Some interesting ensembles could be coming to a town near you 😄 I'm loving this one...talk about battle of the airmass...there would be some fun and games along the boundary lines of this one...Oh and for those of you who were not sure...we currently have an Omega Block in place...courtesy of Marco P.

    gens-7-1-372.png

    gens-7-0-384.png

    Eq9828oXIAE0xTs.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Oh no.. we have reached the wheeling out of 16 day in the future ensemble members for our virtual fix. 

     

    But the point is that someone pics one and explains why this how it will look. Or more realistically people can’t and therefore all are possibilities. And that’s the point. 👍

    B03875F7-AB81-45F4-8533-B904588910BC.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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