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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    How high do people think the risk is that the easterlies in the strat don’t reach the Troposphere ? To my mind most models don’t see much of a downwelling yet? Perhaps give it a few days and see where we are 🤔 PS finally a few flakes in the snow desert of East Anglia this morning 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    I do detest Waning periods but wherever there's a wane there is a wax around the corner...........

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Trying to find a bit of positivity for coldies, but feeding of scraps on the 06z here at 150. A bit more wedgey around southern Greenland and the high a bit stronger in the Barents sea.

     

    gfsnh-0-150 (5).png

    gfsnh-0-156 (3).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    How high do people think the risk is that the easterlies in the strat don’t reach the Troposphere ? To my mind most models don’t see much of a downwelling yet? Perhaps give it a few days and see where we are 🤔 PS finally a few flakes in the snow desert of East Anglia this morning 

    We also have a possible issue where the first warming is not enough to torpedo the sPV, so it recovers, maybe during the loss of the Ural block and the general flattening of the NH profile (post-d6)? If we do not get a good amount of HLB'ing from the SWWE then the second warming may not be enough to stop the sPV recovering fully? More questions than answers at the moment!

     d8 as you were on the gfs 06z: 38335831_gfseu-0-192(4).thumb.png.aa2bb9d9083671555cbc168a7921441b.png

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Trending better IMO.

    3FA5F6D7-B6C7-4B39-8986-52959B7FABD1.png

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  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    30hpa and 10hpa still doing it’s thing. 

    35C8F3B1-EF05-4795-A78B-42F2F17A35F6.jpeg

    2ED1BBF4-1637-49B0-804E-D494DE0E0C7A.jpeg

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  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    Here we go.... 

     

    Maybe? 

    935767341_gfsnh-0-186(2).thumb.png.9a1ac7ecd49788e88b0261e8575c6094.png

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  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Unfortunately the model output is beginning to resemble January 2019 following the SSW on the 1st. As you will remember that was a benign month with high pressure, light winds some frost and no snow,  like what is been shown for next week. 

    Time for change of course but just 2 years ago the same SSW scenario played out with cold, snowy MetO medium range forecasts and it all cumulated in late February with the warmest winter spell ever recorded.

    Hopefully lightning won't strike the same place twice.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    54 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    ECM control on the cold side into next week! With the Operational at the top of the pack. Trend is of course much milder overall.

    Clear to see the spread from Sunday. 

    (from Matt H Twitter)

    17FFC642-7A12-4831-8FEE-D0A80503A814.thumb.png.d801c24b98fae5fed5949de773a6a27a.png89136E30-6CD2-49C9-BE3A-A70F6CFF6F49.thumb.png.a25e180ec56214c86b8dec7878f22525.png

    Yep, the 06z gfs parallel op seems to be a nice fit with that ecm ens 8 day mean chart. I see nothing to be downbeat about this morning. 

    gfsnh-0-186.png

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  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    Here we go.... 

     

    Maybe? 

    935767341_gfsnh-0-186(2).thumb.png.9a1ac7ecd49788e88b0261e8575c6094.png

    🤞GFSP, straw clutching 

    gfsnh-0-198 (2).png

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  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

    Here we go.... 

     

    Maybe? 

    935767341_gfsnh-0-186(2).thumb.png.9a1ac7ecd49788e88b0261e8575c6094.png

    There certainly seems scope for another ettempt at high pressure north of us again, iv got a feeling the next few days were gonna see ridging attempts become a regular with cold uppers surging South, a settled wkend to come and maybe colder toward next wkend again is my hunch 

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  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    That is an absolute stonker of a chart. 

    gfsnh-0-192.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    There are signs of that gap to our north gaining traction now. A parting of the waves with the main section of the pv on the Siberian side. 

    gfsnh-0-216.png

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  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    I still think patience is needed - no guarantees obviously that the SSW will impact our weather in the UK, but it's still too early to know whether it will or won't. Naturally we're going to want to start seeing some evidence of it appearing in the models, but we could be looking towards mid to late Jan for that. What I don't think is correct is for anyone to suggest that this SSW is a bust for the UK, as the one in 2019 was. Far too early to make those sorts of conclusions. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    There are signs of that gap to our north gaining traction now. A parting of the waves with the main section of the pv on the Siberian side. 

    gfsnh-0-216.png

    Yes definetly the effect of the SSW look at the vertical WAA appearing in the Atlantic.... 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    That is an absolute stonker of a chart. 

    gfsnh-0-192.png

    need the EC to start showing signs, or it won't happen,

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Looks dry to me.

    Probably helps to be in with a shout though, perhaps? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

    You can't say SSW is not having an impact but it seems Europe somehow once again manages to end up in the middle of nothing on this run. Slight shift westwards and we would be in the game but will we get it? Not feeling that optimistic after reading the strat thread. Seems like the hype of days past has quickly dissapeared. 

    image.thumb.png.3b94967f2700fd3a13faaf63b4a79386.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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