Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    The GFS is a strange run! 

    Azored high pushes wayyyyy south and wedges popping up all over.

    This smells of ssw.

    Will we start seeing proper effects todsy omwards?

    Morning Scott,

    A little more Arctic heights popping up.

    Maybe each run is seeing a slightly stronger reversal on its starting data?

    Models at 144. Starting to move closer to each other, but still differences.

     

    gfsnh-0-144 (8).png

    iconnh-0-144 (3).png

    gfsnh-0-144 (7).png

    UN144-21 (8).gif

    gemnh-0-144 (3).png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Morning Scott,

    A little more Arctic heights popping up.

    Maybe each run is seeing a slightly stronger reversal on its starting data?

    Models at 144. Starting to move closer to each other, but still differences.

     

    gfsnh-0-144 (8).png

    iconnh-0-144 (3).png

    gfsnh-0-144 (7).png

    UN144-21 (8).gif

    gemnh-0-144 (3).png

    Morning mate.

    The 200+ period is interesting if we start seeing waa through the heart of the country.

    Could we get heights north of us merged with the arctic high?

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Can't post pick but at 250hr.looks leike a sandy high development??? 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Can't post pick but at 250hr.looks leike a sandy high development??? 

    It's having a think about it.  270 attached

    Para and gem toying with heights pushing to our North too.

     

    gfsnh-0-270.png

    gfsnh-0-210 (1).png

    gemnh-0-180 (2).png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Who would have thought we would be looking at charts like this at day 8...the best you can take is it remains dry in the south ...mild and drizzly further north.

    The word IF will no doubt be the word of the day / week by the usual suspects. No doubt this will be labelled negative etc etc, but some need to wakes up to the fact were in for a major pattern change.

      

    ECMOPEU00_192_1-3.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    ECM is very consistent with last nights run with mild uppers and a south based UK high... as the run progresses mid term.

    playing through GFS you can see the Atlantic trough setting up as per last nights EC46..

    any slight trend to improve things yesterday has stopped and we are a trending mild, uk high or Atlantic trough.

    The most worrying  thing for me personally is that the SSW has come into play as actual starting data we have seen this turn around in outputs.. not the other way..

    ECM day 10 did offer this... but it’s day 10 and would still need a couple more days for anything of interest 

    image.thumb.png.be5f123e97af5fcfbc46f719e17a17c9.png

     

     

     

    Edited by TSNWK
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    ECM at day 10 gives us a sniff with some decent amplification.  Chart of the morning for me even though it’s way out on FI.  Keep the faith folks, we are still in the game!

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    ECM at day 10 gives us a sniff with some decent amplification.  Chart of the morning for me even though it’s way out on FI.  Keep the faith folks, we are still in the game!

    Agreed but I like Ukmo at T144. Met have low confidence in both extended outlooks. All to play for as you say.👍😄

    BC18D01B-9B60-42B1-B430-2E6BAF824411.png

    2AB549F2-318A-4DDC-B2E8-C3A45B79D338.png

    7F76597B-585B-4C8C-B464-AEC222B6BDAA.png

    42B5FAF0-F9C6-41BB-B09E-842A42D80A85.png

    1E89074D-2549-4A5A-906A-A666B2B97580.png

    23C27366-4962-4500-B312-60D939C24A8F.png

    56CC3941-7BB8-49D5-9C40-434D9FF890CF.png

    6374C700-2A85-41C3-9EFB-B0AEA3C5EA62.png

    F897B677-B203-42DC-B0E8-ED863D3D38C4.gif

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian

    The trend seems to be for a rise in temperatures and somewhat drier weather from day 5/6 onwards.

    Nothing overly mild yet on the horizon, indeed temps perhaps a touch above average would be a better term to use perhaps....?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Check out the SSW updates today. Cooking along nicely. 50C warming at 10hpa above north pole now.

    Mean looks good to for 14 days.

    Edited by Rapodo
    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The London 2m temps are instructive in the gfs 0z run:

    graphe6_10000_308.96424865722656_149.16334533691406___.thumb.png.8e93f140c77f1795e60868b28f05e0c9.png

    Good support for the next 6-day cold spell. Then 2-4 days under the UK high/ridge, the temps gain scatter (cold or milder high). Then they go all over the place and the op is def in outlier territory.The op is in a small cluster by d10 and by d13 there are many ways the NH can develop:

    d13>gens_panel_lkw7.png

    As we ruminated on in the last day or two, no clear signal as to what is happening in the hiatus after the UK high as the tPV moves away from the Asia/Pacific post-d5. The d13 mean NH profile:

    gensnh-31-1-312.thumb.png.1732a7a2d13c54ba1295acc8b0bc9913.png

    Nothing unusually cold (850's) likely for the uk on this run, as the probability charts shows post d8:

    anim_nys1.gif

    FI all subject to change at short notice.

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The extended gefs and eps mean/anoms end week 2 are very strongly aligned across the NH

    given we have just begun a reversal high up that pretty amazing (and might I add unlikely given that there is massive spread across the NH on the gefs) 

    i suppose it probably means that the strongly likely features are aligned and the mean just smudges the gaps in between. The anoms should be  highlighting some diffs ..... a little odd with the context 

    Another day of looking for strange developments in week 2 ....

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFS 

    GFSP 

    ECM 

    UKMO 

    Icon

    GEM 

    Apologies to those who don't like long streams of model charts, trying to work out what's what this morning, before home schooling starts, whilst dealing with a very elderly and poorly cat (my other half is going to pieces over her cat, I'm doing likewise over charts).... 

    I'll probably comment separately or edit, as this is fiddly on a phone. Ta. 

    gfsnh-0-120.png

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    gfsnh-0-180 (5).png

    gfsnh-0-240 (3).png

    gfsnh-0-120 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-144 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-180 (6).png

    gfsnh-0-240 (2).png

    ECH1-120.gif

    ECH1-144.gif

    ECH1-192.gif

    ECH1-240 (1).gif

    UN120-21.gif

    UN144-21.gif

    iconnh-0-120.png

    iconnh-0-144.png

    iconnh-0-180.png

    gemnh-0-120.png

    gemnh-0-144.png

    gemnh-0-180.png

    gemnh-0-240.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    GFS 

    GFSP 

    ECM 

    UKMO 

    Icon

    GEM 

    Apologies to those who don't like long streams of model charts, trying to work out what's what this morning, before home schooling starts, whilst dealing with a very elderly and poorly cat (my other half is going to pieces over her cat, I'm doing likewise over charts).... 

    I'll probably comment separately or edit, as this is fiddly on a phone. Ta. 

    gfsnh-0-120.png

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    gfsnh-0-180 (5).png

    gfsnh-0-240 (3).png

    gfsnh-0-120 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-144 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-180 (6).png

    gfsnh-0-240 (2).png

    ECH1-120.gif

    ECH1-144.gif

    ECH1-192.gif

    ECH1-240 (1).gif

    UN120-21.gif

    UN144-21.gif

    iconnh-0-120.png

    iconnh-0-144.png

    iconnh-0-180.png

    gemnh-0-120.png

    gemnh-0-144.png

    gemnh-0-180.png

    gemnh-0-240.png

     

    2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Plenty of northern blocking still in evidence on day 10-15 on the 00z ECM clusters:

    image.thumb.png.cd96da8ca9a196e24085236da85a8131.png

    No Atlantic onslaught there...

    @mb018538 my first observation across the models, would agree.

    PV ograngised many away from the Americas. 

    I never cherry pick ensembles, but scanning very quickly across the charts these caught my eye.. 

    Yes, there's some purple across North American continent but looking east, will we become stuck in no man's land, or will we benefit from our near neighbours? 

    892418987_ECH1-240(1).gif.1bdddcc5b4caa118fde361141b006235.gif

    gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.3d3c80e97c19494a2d74f58cf7395330.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Plenty of scatter on he 06Z ens...a sure sign that changes are afoot... However, as the aftermaths of the last two SSWs show (one a classic BFTE, the other, 21C in February) the outcome of this one is still up in the air. And no BFTE of the Orthodox Christmas either:😱

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    But at least the NH profiles have strengthened their signal for Polar HP... now 1036hPa::santa-emoji:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    And, a wee question: Was it Albert Einstein or Mark Twain, who said something about repeatedly doing the same thing and hoping for a different result?🤔

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    As every body is looking at next week ECM still running with high pressure pushing up from the south 

    rather than southwest.If correct will it be a clear or a cloudy scenario,would make a substantial difference 

    to temperatures.Looking at Geffs ensembles showing an uptick in temperatures but good to see for

    the first time quite a few -10.personally looking keenly to the Russian high to see any westward 

    Retrogression possibly showing on ECM 216 hrs 240 hrs.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Plenty of northern blocking still in evidence on day 10-15 on the 00z ECM clusters:

    image.thumb.png.cd96da8ca9a196e24085236da85a8131.png

    No Atlantic onslaught there...

    Not bad at all, especially in the extended with heights to the North, hopefully we can start to firm up on this over the next week or so. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Plenty of scatter on he 06Z ens...a sure sign that changes are afoot... However, as the aftermaths of the last two SSWs show (one a classic BFTE, the other, 21C in February) the outcome of this one is still up in the air. And no BFTE of the Orthodox Christmas either:😱

    t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

    t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

    But at least the NH profiles have strengthened their signal for Polar HP... now 1036hPa::santa-emoji:

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    And, a wee question: Was it Albert Einstein or Mark Twain, who said something about repeatedly doing the same thing and hoping for a different result?🤔

    Einstein I believe.  

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM control on the cold side into next week! With the Operational at the top of the pack. Trend is of course much milder overall.

    Clear to see the spread from Sunday. 

    (from Matt H Twitter)

    17FFC642-7A12-4831-8FEE-D0A80503A814.thumb.png.d801c24b98fae5fed5949de773a6a27a.png89136E30-6CD2-49C9-BE3A-A70F6CFF6F49.thumb.png.a25e180ec56214c86b8dec7878f22525.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...