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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    6 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

    Early days yet, Luke. Still plenty of time to get colder. 

    I guess it is really but it just frustrates me we always seem to chase day 8,10 charts away

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester

    The situation at 240h on the 18z gfs shows my point very clearly,a trough diving down into central Europe while we are stuck in no man's land.it happens way to often for my liking

    Screenshot_20210104-233230.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    My guess is that will change suddenly in about a week or 10 days time.  And the colder solutions will come into the reliable in the models and then we can see what this SSW has actually done in terms of promoting cold for the UK.  These SSW chases are of two months duration, we saw that in 2018, from the sniff of a SSW in weeks to come, to the event itself, and then the fallout.  It is a long game.  I like it.  When it delivers at the end, but it is by no means certain.  80% chance I think with this one.  

    Wow so you are 80% sure of some significant cold I do hope you are correct.just the longer we have to wait the risk diminishes 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    I guess it is really but it just frustrates me we always seem to chase day 8,10 charts away

    SSW sudden and dramatic or pushes right through.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Wow so you are 80% sure of some significant cold I do hope you are correct.just the longer we have to wait the risk diminishes 

    Yes, 66% for any SSW, but improved chances with this one because we know what we are starting with = 80% in my view.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, 66% for any SSW, but improved chances with this one because we know what we are starting with = 80% in my view.  

    Ok Mike thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    48 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I think this could lead to a happy ending 😏

    gfsnh-0-276.png

    What was I saying? I love it when a plan comes together 👌

    gfsnh-0-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, 66% for any SSW, but improved chances with this one because we know what we are starting with = 80% in my view.  

    Yes I'm looking for proper cold to our east, and there are some early signs of that with the trop vortex (daughters) forecast to move over Asia and Europe.

    image.thumb.png.30d86fe890f8e45251cf3f13c1ce27fa.png

    Then we need the conditions for an easterly or north easterly and we are in proper business with no more marginal.  So I guess we wait for the models to form a consensus on the mid-term direction of travel.  As many of us have said over the last few days, the models struggle with a situation that is so rare.  Put simply, the training data is sparse for these events, so while the models are getting better on the detection of these events, I'm not so sure they are on the impact.  Lets see and cross our fingers.

    Edited by Trom
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Control looking cold throughout on the ensembles

    69202424-CCFA-4077-8999-DA0C255043D4.thumb.png.da1453b695072a8737655297c4315504.png

    Also watch out for that shortwave energy heading down from the north, over the U.K. on Friday and then getting sucked into the Iberian Low. I can’t ever remember seeing a progression like it! 
     

    Doesn’t look like producing to much at the moment but worth keeping an eye on!

    702E32EC-E1AF-4CEB-A1CC-875703AC5675.thumb.jpeg.bca78a22c6e7c0b5be5b369dbb2a6325.jpeg04CB9CC5-FCAC-4421-A689-7C7B26E456F3.thumb.jpeg.643231f4355473ae8d838b67d35509af.jpeg9F11BC55-9907-4864-86CA-A89EE97CE613.thumb.jpeg.77909ca44c4428d35f1f5eaf34924738.jpegF55AAEFB-9C36-4A88-A11D-D3F06076BE1D.thumb.jpeg.09ade7f7a085958bf16ac77dab817b45.jpegE2E88EA5-98BC-4EFF-A6F4-390C70A3FF7F.thumb.jpeg.18bb4a06be6473bb61a03bc3a9fb8694.jpeg
     

     Some snow on it it seems..

    7F1E48C5-D543-4387-A611-D53337981023.thumb.gif.db334e7e6e68707bb142b679eda7abdb.gif9BC9E3BE-C7ED-43A7-B7CA-891A7052BEAF.thumb.gif.3782165c29dbba4b7518b3a78b75649c.gif7193DD85-0172-4D0F-80F5-0CD3E4237A93.thumb.gif.ed24709930c10739b9cc36c8226c618d.gifCEC62CAD-86CE-48AF-8F6F-C1082F005C14.thumb.gif.c6a7ff2eabbd6ff757d305af98780167.gif

     

     

     

    🙂
     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS 18z ensembles are the firsts et for a while that have a cluster returning cold upper air back over the UK around 13th. Much too early to call it a trend and signal is somewhat strangled with the noise but good to see.

    graphe3_10000_265_110___.gif

    ECM ensembles also show a cluster of colder runs and while they are also in the minority it is worth monitoring to see if we can get more members on board and be back in a cold pattern by Mid month.

     

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Jinxed it now! 😆

    Lol only fun but we all know we're in trouble when 1947 is mentioned. 

    I'd say sit back from model watching for 7 days and look at trends then.

    That's what I'm doing as I sit here sipping Barcardi 

    Good health nothing to brag about on the 18z. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

    Since last late December we were seeing great posts from good value members in here showing charts of A Huge cold spell with wedges on sledges for snow. 

    However, what they post is in Fantasy land to be honest. Its great looking in here and thinking it's coming and with them charts they show its definitely going to Snow. 

    I have started to watch the BBC weather forecast and they are  Smack on with there forecast so stop looking at will it won't it and it will charts Get to grip these computer forecasts are like you doing a rubics cube in 78 seconds.. Yep that's what u achieved.. These charts just add on days and says. 

    Been a bitter and cold year so far. 😂3 here. Never mind still 2 months of Winter left and with an SSW and daylight hours longer and sun is stronger. Exiting times ahead. Nosfa 

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    image.thumb.png.eeeb0a38ec0695c6233a617176ecbe18.png
    Look at the deep cold in SE Europe...a clear sign of a warming world sadly.....oh wasn’t that 20c earlier 🧐 

     

    BFTP

    Nice try BFTP but when making a point(or a dig) at least match the date on the charts we were talking about earlier not post charts 8 days later to prove some sort of point. Either way, seeing the 20C hpa even in Africa during early January is very impressive and that is forecast to happen around the 10th. Could be record breaking heat for January for that part of the world.

    As for the UK, looking more likely the Atlantic air will win out eventually without too much of a snowy breakdown but the snow even for later this week could be interesting. The ECM looks to of ramped this up a bit compared to this mornings run, as I say, the more lower thicknesses and kinks in the isobars, the more chance that front will intensify and might not weaken. Obviously details will vary but it's one to watch for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire

    With a steady rise of 850pa temps, after this more blocked cold spell comes to an end (small chance it won't and will wane then wax into the next cold period) along with an uptick in precipitation spikes.

    We will enter a more average and unsettled spell of weather. After that who knows? Throw a SSW in to the model mixing pot, and its most likely to be even a more fun and bumpy ride then it normally is.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.

    All indications are a return to milder wet conditions from the end of this weekend - I am not seeing any evidence of any serious cold on the way in the near future. Remember. Looking at charts for 1 week+ in the future is a total waste of time. B.C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    If we are to get a cold spell its going to rely on a atlantic ridge and a trigger shortwave. Possible attempt at a ridge north via scandi. Something to keep an eye on during the 0z and wouldnt be suprised if a rogue GFS run churns out an easterly tomorrow.

    As for now things are looking very choatic in terms of the output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
    36 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    All indications are a return to milder wet conditions from the end of this weekend - I am not seeing any evidence of any serious cold on the way in the near future. Remember. Looking at charts for 1 week+ in the future is a total waste of time. B.C.

    Can you post some evidence of this ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Lakeland.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme events.
  • Location: South Lakeland.
    18 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    If we are to get a cold spell its going to rely on a atlantic ridge and a trigger shortwave. Possible attempt at a ridge north via scandi. Something to keep an eye on during the 0z and wouldnt be suprised if a rogue GFS run churns out an easterly tomorrow.

    As for now things are looking very choatic in terms of the output.

    I agree, although I think it’s fair to say generally indicators are of no major cold or widespread snowfall on the way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
    2 hours ago, chris55 said:

    Control looking cold throughout on the ensembles

    69202424-CCFA-4077-8999-DA0C255043D4.thumb.png.da1453b695072a8737655297c4315504.png

    Also watch out for that shortwave energy heading down from the north, over the U.K. on Friday and then getting sucked into the Iberian Low. I can’t ever remember seeing a progression like it! 
     

    Doesn’t look like producing to much at the moment but worth keeping an eye on!

    702E32EC-E1AF-4CEB-A1CC-875703AC5675.thumb.jpeg.bca78a22c6e7c0b5be5b369dbb2a6325.jpeg04CB9CC5-FCAC-4421-A689-7C7B26E456F3.thumb.jpeg.643231f4355473ae8d838b67d35509af.jpeg9F11BC55-9907-4864-86CA-A89EE97CE613.thumb.jpeg.77909ca44c4428d35f1f5eaf34924738.jpegF55AAEFB-9C36-4A88-A11D-D3F06076BE1D.thumb.jpeg.09ade7f7a085958bf16ac77dab817b45.jpegE2E88EA5-98BC-4EFF-A6F4-390C70A3FF7F.thumb.jpeg.18bb4a06be6473bb61a03bc3a9fb8694.jpeg
     

     Some snow on it it seems..

    7F1E48C5-D543-4387-A611-D53337981023.thumb.gif.db334e7e6e68707bb142b679eda7abdb.gif9BC9E3BE-C7ED-43A7-B7CA-891A7052BEAF.thumb.gif.3782165c29dbba4b7518b3a78b75649c.gif7193DD85-0172-4D0F-80F5-0CD3E4237A93.thumb.gif.ed24709930c10739b9cc36c8226c618d.gifCEC62CAD-86CE-48AF-8F6F-C1082F005C14.thumb.gif.c6a7ff2eabbd6ff757d305af98780167.gif

     

     

     

    🙂
     

     

     

     

    Based on the current pattern, I believe there are two probable outcomes:

    1. 50% chance of shortwave mild sector (850s & dew points higher than presently forecast) which won't get picked up until T+0 turning the above to rain midlands southwards;

    2. 50% chance of no mild sector but the shortwave fragments midlands southwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    24 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

    I agree, although I think it’s fair to say generally indicators are of no major cold or widespread snowfall on the way.

    Models are fickle beasts, the current output is one shortwave away from delivering or just a slight increase in amplification too.

    The atlantic as we would normally know is very much dead, we're scrambling to get something up that has actual cold to tap into. We've already had a good block but the lack of cold really did let it down. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

    Will do high continue to be modelled further west?

    Icon out and it says - YES

    Tiny upgrades.

    0z compared to 18z

    Good start with us holding on longer to the colder uppers

    Could we pull a covert Northerly out of the bag 9th and 10th as opposed to a UK high?

    Screenshot_20210105-032102_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210105-032115_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Doesnt make it this run but look at those wedges appearr out of nowhere North of Greenland. Hmmm...

    Screenshot_20210105-032622_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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