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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    4 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

    Is this low pressure on Friday worth watching as a potential snow event? Its not the first time GFS has highlighted this as a possibility.

    It really depends on how that low from the northwest interacts with us. Whether it keeps the energy, if a new low forms out of it, or whether it decays before it moves into England. Also how far east it gets.

    I don't know if it is that well supported though, could be a non-event for more southern areas. Something to watch at least.

    Screenshot 2021-01-04 at 22.56.43.png

    Ignore! Will be mainly dry and chilly rest of week and becoming slightly mildr next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Different model outputs but one thing that remains constant a large expanse of deeper cold further east in Europe absent now and is reason for easterly underperforming.

    21E9B902-78EB-4D2D-97E7-14F0B07CB808.thumb.png.7b9a3e6c5f020b5cfb084142ed937c3c.png

    Doesn't that show a large pool of cold forming further east?  Are you trying to say that up to now we haven't had a cold pool to tap into with an easterly but that's changing?  If so that's not how your post reads.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    I think this could lead to a happy ending 😏

    gfsnh-0-276.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Let's hope we see some more post SSW tropospheric charts like this as we head into deepest winter 👌

    gfsnh-0-288.png

    gfsnh-1-288.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Would you agree with me here NW?

    No. Because no sensible person has said a SSW guarantees cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    3 minutes ago, Trom said:

    Doesn't that show a large pool of cold forming further east?  Are you trying to say that up to now we haven't had a cold pool to tap into with an easterly but that's changing?  If so that's not how your post reads.

    Yes, and no we haven’t had a cold source been story this whole winter so far. I’m not saying we’re going to see another easterly but if we did it’s likely it would have much more bite to it.

    See currently we have air circulating into Europe from North Africa which is much warmer than average.

    4CB3CA01-E1BB-426C-A74D-184663969292.thumb.png.6bd7f44a82568f4af8ac7dd53989e0a1.png4054170B-A778-4286-B08C-D48C1929843A.thumb.png.8278140dcd46d25baefadbbdec7ec806.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

    Something like this 🙂

    B9320CA5-1667-4D88-824C-1F7C46DFD04C.png

    06307006-6EAC-4485-9A2A-FD91AAB682A2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

    Already there as far as I'm concerned 👍

    gfsnh-0-324.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

    Which stuff do you mean it looks like a toppler scenario to me going forward just a few cold shots,nothing prolonged 

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    Posted
  • Location: Gatwick
  • Location: Gatwick
    1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Well not clearly but many are assuming we are in for a very cold January,I just don't see it myself

    Early days yet, Luke. Still plenty of time to get colder. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The para showing unexpected levels of continuity post T300 .....

    hey, maybe on to something, it has got 127 levels up to 80km now.  ECM op stops at T240, so well worth keeping a ‘weather eye’ on long range GFS //, I think, because good resolution all the way up to the strat is key in these circumstances.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Which stuff do you mean it looks like a toppler scenario to me going forward just a few cold shots,nothing prolonged 

    Are you not seeing my posts? One run but isn't every run just one run? 

    gfsnh-0-336.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    342hrs and the beast will be here 😉

    472D21A0-C9D7-4D1E-8BEA-D486BC8BAB82.png

    92AC733B-D481-4206-8044-FBD3C9929DCF.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Age old problem i flagged up possible earlier - shortwave energy southern Greenland / iceland is preventing stellar runs.

    And voila!!!  - as soon as it disappears clean ridge builds North and the -16c isotherm is knocking on heavens doorstep.

    image.thumb.png.f6a737df8647ae215fe46f51b552ee21.png

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Yes, and no we haven’t had a cold source been story this whole winter so far. I’m not saying we’re going to see another easterly but if we did it’s likely it would have much more bite to it.

    See currently we have air circulating into Europe from North Africa which is much warmer than average.

    4CB3CA01-E1BB-426C-A74D-184663969292.thumb.png.6bd7f44a82568f4af8ac7dd53989e0a1.png4054170B-A778-4286-B08C-D48C1929843A.thumb.png.8278140dcd46d25baefadbbdec7ec806.png

    Cool that what I thought you meant but I was confused with the wording.  Yes I'm hoping for an Easterly as it now has much better prospects with that cold to the east.  Whilst it's not showing in the models, I think we will have to put up with volatility in the near and mid term as the models get to grip with the trop impact of the SSW.  So fingers crossed.

    Edited by Trom
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    hey, maybe on to something, it has got 127 levels up to 80km now.  ECM op stops at T240, so well worth keeping a ‘weather eye’ on long range GFS //, I think. 

    Para is very 1947 esq. Somebody had to say it lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    Para is very 1947 esq. Somebody had to say it lol. 

    Jinxed it now! 😆

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    Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland
    1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Well not clearly but many are assuming we are in for a very cold January,I just don't see it myself

    First of all please remember an SSW guarantees nothing but it gives us a 66% chance of a decent cold spell. , it is fair to say that the current cold spell has been totally disappointing save for the folk who have decent elevation but some of the posts at the moment can be so depressing other more optimistic might be persuaded to give the site a rest. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Also remember the 18z from a few nights ago. 

    gfsnh-0-360.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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