Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Battleground Snow]

Can we get some amplification thrown up to Iceland at 192?

168 attached

[swfc]

Ec at 168 hrs pretty flat tbh

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I don't believe we are in for blow torch south westerlies, but i think it's going to get relatively milder for a bit, before hopefully a reload of cold.

I think well stay around 3 or 4 degrees before getting colder mate. I dont see the high getting as close as whats been shown. Mushys charts will show you them and i think ivr seen them wrong 3 times in 10 years

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Ec at 168 hrs pretty flat tbh

Worse at t 192.

This is why the UKMO is preferable. Keep those South Westerlies out.

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Completely agree, until/unless the noaa charts agree it aint gonna happen. 

I believe itll be cold, and im no coldie. 

I know you hate it mate but the noaa charts. Like ive just replied 3/ 10 years wrong.

You have to see past face value charts and apply your own ideas and knowledge as well as understand model bias to see past some of these runs

Anyway this is my last post in the mod thread so if anyone wants a reply message me in private chat as ive seen enough here and moving to regionals

[Cold Winter Night]

If you look at just a single chart, EC +192 seems awful, but it is a situation in motion.

It tries to amplify again and there are Arctic Heights. ECM is not far from GFS.

[Weathizard]

I find the ECM evolution between 120 and 144 very strange, I wish there was a way for us to see smaller hourly jumps like the GFS, I’m guessing the low to the N/NW is stuck on a slack jet steam and so essentially just sits there for the next 3 days, the GFS moves this low SE and the ECM after an initial southward movement doesn’t do much.

Have to hope the GFS is the right on this one, the fact all 3 models diverge in the handling of this feature leads me to the conclusion that looking past that point is pointless.

[DEYS(Kent)]

240 chart will be MUCH better if the Scandi troughs dig further SE..

All very irrelevant though..

Trends..

[Windysun1]

15 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I seem to recall the proposed milder turn  in the second week of January was at the far fetched end of fi at one point. we can't outright dismiss something just because it shows something we don't want. It may well not happen, but given how easily things can go wrong for us any  cold spell could well be fleeting or, worse still, not happen.

I want a bitter freeze with two foot of snow as much as anyone.

Two foot! A metre at least! With massive drifts. That would keep us all at home...

We can dream. Bricriu you are right of course but i feel things will align for us this time. This delay in cold advancing might be to our advantage in cooling the cold pool further, and when the dam breaks that cold pool will flood right through

[chris55]

38 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

EC12Z looking wintry inland at 96h.

Caught my eye as well! 

Looks like some instability inland on Friday! Would be very nice to get some settling snow out of all this cold weather!

[IDO]

As expected the ecm follows this morning's mean; by d10 it is similar to gfs op and the gfs mean:

ecm d10>gfs mean>

Models are steadfast for d9-10 for this and it does appear to be an underlying synoptic for that range. I have seen the models lock onto this scenario and get it right. That is of course not when a SSWE is happening, so I will be interested to see if this is overridden by a qtr, is directly related to the strat-trop coupling, or more likely to the current drivers in the trop?

Afterwards, based on the gefs, a cluster does follow the op and control, whilst others similar to the gfsP (most further east with the trough).

[Meerkat]

11 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I find the ECM evolution between 120 and 144 very strange, I wish there was a way for us to see smaller hourly jumps like the GFS,

 

You can choose between 1, 3 , 6 ,12 and 24-hourly intervals here : 

Model charts for Europe (Mean Sea Level Pressure) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

---

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 01/09/2021, 01:00pm of parameter "Mean Sea Level Pressure", model chart for map "Europe"

 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Caught my eye as well! 

Looks like some instability inland on Friday! Would be very nice to get some settling snow out of all this cold weather!

Perhaps a dusting but there’s not much oomf left to it as it heads south unfortunately.

[topo]

If you look at the ECM 00z ensembles for Oslo for next Monday, the highest is 0.7 with the average at -7.

The 850s on this run is higher than the highest of the ensembles of the morning run..

Weird or bad luck again?

[Battleground Snow]

The  positives from the 12zs are the Arctic heights development. We may have to endure a less appealing pattern for a few days with high pressure near the UK

FI is probably 96 at the moment.

Onto the 18z runs

[Anthony Burden]

Lots happening Major SSW to be issued tomorrow Easterly flow at 10hpa ECM 12z leaving

unsettled westerly out of equation high pressure taking over with the orientation getting flat,

which in my opinion will change to more northerly than westerly mode.The SSW reversal 

i believe will kick in a lot quicker than thought.Siberia easterly on it’s way the proof of coarse 

will be in the charts.

 

 

[chris55]

A milder interlude does look likely going into next week. Surface cold being mixed out by 168 on ECM.

Hopefully we can get some snow on the ground before Saturday for a larger swathe of the country, it is a possibility.

This cold dank marginal sleety stuff is pretty drab to be honest. The worst kind of cold IMO. Crisp and frosty or cold and snowy is the aim surely! 

Hopefully the SSW will work its magic after the milder interlude and bring us some proper cold.

[Froze were the Days]

ECM 12z tonight making less of the wedge of heights to the north by day 5 onwards...hoping that we'll see some sort of trigger low on a NW/SE jet over the high advecting the cold back westwards but that doesn't look like happening at the moment.

[Snowman.]

ECM with the D10 trigger shortwave tease much like the GFSP. If we do go down that route then the fun and games will get taken to a whole new level.

[Weather-history]

GFS 12z Christmas Day chart for today

ECM 12Z

GEM 12z

 

And what actually happened

[ICE COLD]

I’ve always liked P2 . Always seems to verify the most

Edited January 4, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Gowon]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 12z Christmas Day chart for today

ECM 12Z

GEM 12z

 

And what actually happened

To me that looks like ECM is the furthest away to what is actually happening- so much for it being the king 

[steveinsussex]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 12z Christmas Day chart for today

ECM 12Z

GEM 12z

 

And what actually happened

Lack of data innit

[john w]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 12z Christmas Day chart for today

ECM 12Z

GEM 12z

 

And what actually happened

 

If people cannot decipher the age old message to follow trends than single perturbations of individual outputs...then this post is single handedly as good as any example as why a d10 chart cannot be taken at face value...and nor can its subsequent run variation!

I regularly read this forum, but rarely post. And this one...is one of the least wordy and most effective ever...to frequent and infrequent posters!

 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 12z Christmas Day chart for today

ECM 12Z

GEM 12z

 

And what actually happened

Thanks Kevin.. love these posts...