Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, Gregulator said:

And only 14 days away!

What could possibly go wrong 14 is the new 10

[Battleground Snow]

JMA 84 v GFS at 84.

Unusual to compare charts at such short range, but with the volatility it's interesting.

 

[Windysun1]

17 minutes ago, Griff said:

Definitely a ramp from Marco P at the Met, along these lines... Maybe....  

Hot off the press. 

 

Everything except cold

[ryanoroo]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What could possibly go wrong 14 is the new 10

14 can be quite a good number of days when relating to SSW events

[mushymanrob]

Im in agreement with @Scott Ingham ... the GFS has pushed back the previously suggested mild, and it has got support, crucially from the NOAA charts..  Not sure whats so good about the UKMO run, its dreadful!

The main point about the GFS 12z is that its started to reduce the Atlantic ridge in the nearer timeframe and drawn down that low pressure from the North further South and into Western Europe, That allows scandinavia to become more high pressure dominated as the Siberian ridge builds Westwards.

Surely the way to an Easterly would be for the weakening of the Atlantic/Azores ridge , allowing the Greenland high to shunt the jet further South.

Anyway, the Anomaly charts still dont allow for the stronger pressure rise to our South the GFS promotes.

From my pov, its all eyes North to see if higher pressure establishes across Scandinavia.

 

[SMU]

@Tim Bland

ECM 72 

Snow moving south further East than GFS

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Polar vortex starting to move back towards its default position right up top, might only have a limited window of opportunity low down so need to start seeing some stellar charts in the next few days.

Thats my concern..

A quick rebound...

[Battleground Snow]

ECM looks more GFS that ukmo to me at 96 

I guess the Ukmo can be wrong at day 4... If it does actually turn out this way of course.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Kasim Awan]

EC12Z looking wintry inland at 96h.

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@Tim Bland

ECM 72 

Snow moving south further East than GFS

smashing the refresh button on those ECM precip charts...desperate for a flake or sleety ice pellet in the Cost Del Stevenage. Almost as desperate as Barry on the beeches of Devon

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Polar vortex starting to move back towards its default position right up top, might only have a limited window of opportunity low down so need to start seeing some stellar charts in the next few days.

What at the fetched ends of fi is what you base your entire post on? Must be desperate lol 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

EC12Z looking wintry inland at 96h.

Aye, follows GFS, hopefully UKMO wrong here as it looks like it shows dry, GFS/EC v UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/modehttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021010412/ECM1-96.GIF?04-0les/ecmwf/runs/2021010412/ECM1-96.GIF?04-0

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

EC12Z looking wintry inland at 96h.

Same feature shown on the GFS and Icon 

[XtremeUKWeather]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, follows GFS, hopefully UKMO wrong here as it looks like it shows dry, GFS/EC v UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/modehttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021010412/ECM1-96.GIF?04-0les/ecmwf/runs/2021010412/ECM1-96.GIF?04-0

All 3 are now different 

[Weathizard]

If you showed someone this chart and said predict 144&168 I’m certain most people would go for some kind of blast from the north, let’s see if the ECM manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

[Scott Ingham]

24 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Im in agreement with @Scott Ingham ... the GFS has pushed back the previously suggested mild, and it has got support, crucially from the NOAA charts..  Not sure whats so good about the UKMO run, its dreadful!

The main point about the GFS 12z is that its started to reduce the Atlantic ridge in the nearer timeframe and drawn down that low pressure from the North further South and into Western Europe, That allows scandinavia to become more high pressure dominated as the Siberian ridge builds Westwards.

Surely the way to an Easterly would be for the weakening of the Atlantic/Azores ridge , allowing the Greenland high to shunt the jet further South.

Anyway, the Anomaly charts still dont allow for the stronger pressure rise to our South the GFS promotes.

From my pov, its all eyes North to see if higher pressure establishes across Scandinavia.

 

Yes i believe over the next 36 hours the models will converge on these anomoly charts. You have to have taken notice but very slowly we are reaching this pattern.

The models are back tracking on mild. Theyve sucked people in onoy to say only joking! It nornally works the other way where we get cold stolen off us at the last minute!

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

What at the fetched ends of fi is what you base your entire post on? Must be desperate lol 

I seem to recall the proposed milder turn  in the second week of January was at the far fetched end of fi at one point. we can't outright dismiss something just because it shows something we don't want. It may well not happen, but given how easily things can go wrong for us any  cold spell could well be fleeting or, worse still, not happen.

I want a bitter freeze with two foot of snow as much as anyone.

[Tim Bland]

21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@Tim Bland

ECM 72 

Snow moving south further East than GFS

ECM gives a dusting for more areas end of the week than GFs which goes down the west coast. Hard to make out exact travel on these images, but looks like it goes down the centre of the UK so everyone is in with a shout of a dusting by Friday. Will have the better images around 7pm

Edited January 4, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Scott Ingham]

Ecm follows GFS.

I dont even believe this mild spell people have been saying is a done deal since saturday is even going to happen.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey

[Frostbite1980]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

smashing the refresh button on those ECM precip charts...desperate for a flake or sleety ice pellet in the Cost Del Stevenage. Almost as desperate as Barry on the beeches of Devon

That makes 2 Stevenage folk then

[Man With Beard]

ECM T144. Stuck. Still, gives the NE vortex a chance to set itself up, which wouldn't be a bad thing

 

[Weathizard]

 

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Ecm follows GFS.

I dont even believe this mild spell people have been saying is a done deal since saturday is even going to happen.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey

You think the ECM follows the GFS? It’s probably more like the GFS than the UKM but it moves the low NE after an initial southward movement, unlike the GFS. The ECM is basically a middle ground between the two.

[Snowjokes92]

Not catched up on here today, just had a quick look at the days model runs. Must say, compared to yesterday feels like the the gfs and ecm trying to toy with the impacts of the warming at mid range, building heights to the north and scandi but not quite getting there. I think personally there trying to sniff it out, but struggling with the modelling of any impacts because of the warming

[Bricriu]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Ecm follows GFS.

I dont even believe this mild spell people have been saying is a done deal since saturday is even going to happen.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey

I don't believe we are in for blow torch south westerlies, but i think it's going to get relatively milder for a bit, before hopefully a reload of cold.

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Ecm follows GFS.

I dont even believe this mild spell people have been saying is a done deal since saturday is even going to happen.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey

Completely agree, until/unless the noaa charts agree it aint gonna happen. 

I believe itll be cold, and im no coldie.