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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Here is the NAO and AO forecast, I think someone on here (although I can’t remember) posted that a few runs had gone above positive (only a couple) but today it’s  the NAO that only makes it to neutral, the AO a couple of runs go really negative!! Now theses are only forecasts but it just shows how volatile the current situation is. 
    many more twists and turns to come.

    4E0D8482-17B1-41E9-9350-5921F8F882DE.jpeg

    7441F226-150D-4F5E-AFDE-C23667B2D516.jpeg

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    interesting the GFS 12 z has slightly warmer 850 over the north CONUS and coldest in Russia , yesterday it was other way round , maybe less thermal gradient to give the jet some some fuel in its northern arm?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

    GFS a little more amplified over Southern Greenland?  Northerly further down the line?

    Yes looks it, could be getting interesting... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

    12Z GFS  at 120 has more southeastward movement of energy than on the 06Z.... UKMO having none of it though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    As said many times look East....

    UKMO 120

    2BA30487-B490-4877-992F-0C5A24319AD4.thumb.gif.4850907c27cbeb9d9b411fba92253d8f.gif

    Look north!

    gfsnh-0-120.png?12

     

     

    Follow the Sandal!

     

    Sandal.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
    1 minute ago, Mucka said:

    Look north!

    gfsnh-0-120.png?12

     

     

    Follow the Sandal!

     

    Sandal.jpg

    lol - i was watching that on Netflix for the first time in 30 years  

     

    Back to models thats certainly encouraging from METO , can we really see some disruption here #???

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Mild blip? Nowhere to be seen.

    gfs-1-132.png

    I was just thinking that. 

    C9F7DFA8-C7A7-40C9-8C09-829D554C7985.png
     

    Vastly diff from the UKMO, ECM will be closer the UKMO than GFS no doubt 

    0E460915-D43B-413A-BCF3-71BF3C4C9B25.gif

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Mild blip? Nowhere to be seen.

    gfs-1-132.png

    Do you think we could call this a transition phase?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, fromey said:

    Do you think we could call this a transition phase?

    We're cool, however you wish to identify 😉 

    But seriously something is up... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    I will take that.

    Bitter! 

    C1B7422E-1B71-44CD-BE04-117A05434F82.thumb.gif.1ea96bb83b92d5c70d41176269a04c96.gif

    It has been consistent lately with tis sort of outcome and if that were the transition. surface cold frost and fog, to a more amplified pattern I would take it.

    Still prefer GFS though being in the NW

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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    Quite impressive difference between GFS and UKMO at 144hr..

    UKMO run with almost 0 850s in Oslo seemed a massive outlier 2 days ago...

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    UKMO showing the way to proper cold at 144 hours,lets see some consistency from it tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, fromey said:

    Do you think we could call this a transition phase?

    12z is very similar to 06z by Sunday, certainly temp wise (see below for 6z) warm up has always been shown for middle of the month (240hrs) so it’s a bit early in the run to be celebrating ...

    B2E2DAC6-B485-4A3B-9211-388CE81EFEF5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I was just thinking that. 

    C9F7DFA8-C7A7-40C9-8C09-829D554C7985.png
     

    Vastly diff from the UKMO, ECM will be closer the UKMO than GFS no doubt 

    0E460915-D43B-413A-BCF3-71BF3C4C9B25.gif

    UKMO is the odd one out here.

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    Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    We're cool, however you wish to identify 😉 

    But seriously something is up... 

    Looking like the models are starting to react to the SSW

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

    the elephant in the room is that despite all the computing power and investment over the years we cant get model agreement even 4/5 days out in the 21th Century !!!! i mean 120 hours of weather and we have different outcomes showing - have we really progress from the hard work of the like of John Holmes from maybe 2-3 day to 4/5 days ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Personally for the bottom half of the uk we have just had our warmest day of the week today topping out 4.2c will trend down for rest of week.. but a little too slow.. 

    below is GFS tm2 for Sunday 4,5 across the board - Saturday it looked like an ice day to me over central southern England.

    ps uk144 has cold surface boarding on colder than GFs I would say.

     

    image.thumb.png.1c899fc0c99ca9636d136854d08e705e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    UKMO showing the way to proper cold at 144 hours,lets see some consistency from it tomorrow.

    Looks like the cold is retreating to me? 

    E3716CDD-8288-4339-BA22-0F552F6643AF.gif

    E5F82EA7-42DA-4608-A827-2C62DB2A8235.gif

    D1313555-95B8-4226-B7AC-4AE4843312C7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Look north!

    gfsnh-0-120.png?12

     

     

     

    The low looks like it’s going to track down the North Sea coast in this run instead of easterly into Norway? Thus giving us a northerly early next week instead of something more westerly influenced. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

    So.... mild blip...mild even at all?

    Models confused 

    Ive seen enough here at 150 to know there is a chance of the battoeground/slider event around the 10th give or take a day or 2 i spoke about.

    Were trending back to continued cold. So again. Talking with certainty about the end to cold is very premature yet. 

    If that sharpens forget mild blip think snowy blip as discussed 3 days ago

    You probably rhought i was bonkers going against the ensembles but sometimes models cant see what us humans can see

     

    Still on the fence however. Its wrong to proclaim it will be cold with all this uncertainty.

    id be a hypocrite after sitting on the fence when it was mild

    20210104_161132.jpg

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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