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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    6 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Well, only the starting data is actual data. +0h is actual data.
    However as the model progresses, the forecasted previous step will be the input for the next step and so on. Every development we see at +96, +144, +240 is the result not only of actual data, but actual data + forecasted 'data' in previous steps.

    So, having the reversal of zonal winds available as a measured phenomenon (and not only at the 'technical' SSW, but across the layers) instead of a forecast, should intuitively make the model outcome more reliable, right?

    CWN you may be right as it is over 25 years since I was working. I'll have to have a look at the latest Met O data on their web site to see if they give the necessary information.

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    It ends with a little wedge in griceland. Positive start to the 12z runs, just a hunch but I dont't think the mild blip will last too long.

     

     

    iconnh-0-180 (8).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    It ends with a little wedge in griceland. Positive start to the 12z runs, just a hunch but I won't think the mild blip will last too long.

     

     

    iconnh-0-180 (8).png

    The ICON almost completely erradicates mild weather. Only the 11th has a daily CET above 3.5C.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Whoever decided to release the ICON before all the other models is a marketing genius 😂 

    Certainly some differences between this morning and this afternoons ICON, more forcing on the Low and an increase in pressure around southern GL, most important those low heights over Europe might serve to stop the high sinking back over us.

    5863A8C4-294C-4831-8B8E-B27B7C8BAD3C.png

    73B6AF2B-5DA8-4692-8EE2-7B544677AF2C.png

    Agree.. icon punches above weight as 1st out.. however an example of some creditability for me was yesterday morning whereby it did go with UKM and ECM whilst GFS did not change until a  later run.  So certainly not without merit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Yes, I should rephrase, not mild but less cold.

    These macro model upgrades are a sign there is a background factor at work reducing westerly components. Strong argument to suggest this could be due to a multitude of factors. This does not guarantee a slight waning of the -NAO profile though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    Is the ICON on to something here? Have the models settled down now? Today’s the day of the SSW I’ve seen stranger things happen 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Seems we might snatch cold from the jaws of mild after yesterday snatching very mild from cold...

    Looking for upgrades today!! Especially in Fridays snow potential as The slider from the North interacts with the Energy from the East over the UK!

    Remember SSW = 0 Easterly momentum !

    Hope so mate ...

    Got everything crossed for upgrades,much the same as you..

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    Wow, certainly an eye opening Icon - it might be that we never actually lose the cold at all...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Icon is a big improvement,and I think yesterday was a mere bad day at the office...we will call today...THE DAY THE MODELS STRUCK BACK..sounds like a disaster film 😅 We are getting to that stage where the output is gonna go crazy as those winds reversals drop down into the Atmosphere..some are calling a Vortex drop into Asia and Europe, lots still at play,and as Steve M says there ain't a lot of Eastwards momentum. Monday night fever is upon us..

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    Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Icon was slated the other day when it went flat,  now it is king 🤣 if it didn’t come out first it would hardly get a look in just like JMA, Navgem & GEM etc hardly ever get a mention. I’m Sticking to UKMO and then ECM, with a cursory view of GFS for entertainment value 

    i tend to agree but it had its moment in the sun think 2018/2019 winter  - when another SSW left too much energy in the GIN area and all other models and meto Uk where calling cold into NY this model flatten the pattern - so just sometimes may come up with the goods

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Icon was slated the other day when it went flat,  now it is king 🤣 if it didn’t come out first it would hardly get a look in just like JMA, Navgem & GEM etc hardly ever get a mention. I’m Sticking to UKMO and then ECM, with a cursory view of GFS for entertainment value 

    Respect your opinion tim you are entitled to it but this is the model discussion thread and of course the ICON is a relatively poor model compared to the ECM/GFS/UKM but it’s still worth using for analytical reasons.

    It gets posted a lot because it’s the first model out for every set of runs, not because any of us take it as gospel 😂 

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, southbank said:

    i tend to agree but it had its moment in the sun think 2018/2019 winter  - when another SSW left too much energy in the GIN area and all other models and meto Uk where calling cold into NY this model flatten the pattern - so just sometimes may come up with the goods

     

    I’m sure all models have had a great prediction at some point. Even a blind squirrel finds his nuts occasionally! Jokes aside I hope it’s right, but until ECM & UKMO come onboard the snow train I won’t be buying it 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    UKMO sticking to its guns, something has to give soon.

    UN96-21.GIF?04-16

    GFS below

    gfsnh-0-96.png

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    I wouldn't go overboard just yet, the Azores high is looking rather ominous which may scupper surface conditions for a couple of days. Going forward the model shift should theoretically be evident on the 12z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Interesting drive of low heights underneath the high, could serve to prop the high up long enough for a wedge? Also significant is the increase in that high pressure in the US, could encourage a link up

    0EA229B3-A1AA-4CA2-90C6-E6D4168CCCCB.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Met office 09/to 18th Jan have added confidence is low,that to me tells the story.
    As I said in my blog not certain about this westerly warm up and unsettled spell,

    my take high pressure cold and frosty.We shall see in the mean time cold with 

    some snow showers all week.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Seems we might snatch cold from the jaws of mild after yesterday snatching very mild from cold...

    Looking for upgrades today!! Especially in Fridays snow potential as The slider from the North interacts with the Energy from the East over the UK!

    Remember SSW = 0 Easterly momentum !

    Still no sign of that low brining anything to the east / south east, looks very light and patchy away from the north / northwest. ironically we want some eastward momentum for our region on Friday!

    F3B681B0-88AF-4159-B2DC-2928498B1613.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    UKMO sticking to its guns, something has to give soon.

    UN96-21.GIF?04-16

    GFS below

    gfsnh-0-96.png

    GFS a little more amplified over Southern Greenland?  Northerly further down the line?

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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