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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
    1 minute ago, Howie said:

    I thought this is what was helping us!? So confused 

    it’s the opposite, hence why the models are showing a much more typical UK winter setup

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    3 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    I remember this well, chino called it well, quick downwell with a rapid tropospheric response, you would think 7 years on the models have a better handle on these now after the ongoing improving and upgrading of the models most years, 

    Will be interesting to hear from him then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    If I were him I would be having a ‘busy day at work’ today 😄

    So? I didn't say right now, later on in the evening? We all have lives outside this forum, doesn't mean one should be belittled for engaging in it.

    Edited by Kasim Awan
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    5 minutes ago, Howie said:

    I thought this is what was helping us!? So confused 

    It is when the output shows a colder outlook, it isn't when it doesn't.  It's like feature A will help if given feature B and feature C, but not if given B & not given C, it might help if not given B and not given C, but if given B and not given C then A definitely won't help, but all these are redundant if not given features D,E & F & so on ad infinitum.  

    NWP is (literally infinitely) complicated.  That's why no opinions are disprovable and that's what makes it fun.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Perhaps model fatigue setting in lucky to return to average on ECM 00z. Extends cold conditions through the weekend.

    7B01E6FB-1D96-447B-9A55-BBF1CE2B5A68.thumb.png.8c94dd95f9d32e7001080ce231a59aaf.png533CEC5D-502B-4866-B217-7BCDE5962DF1.thumb.png.10855c5f0e665c099eb068193b7fd794.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good morning, all!

    Not much sign of an impending freeze-up on today's GFS 00Z... But, I do find the northward extent of 15-21C Uppers quite interesting -- for so early in the year:🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    The GEFS temp ensembles show a sustained (but unconnected to the above observation) temperature rise, all the way out to Day 16:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    And the NH Profiles still move toward an HP centred near the Pole... though the mean SLP (1028hPa) is somewhat lower than the 1032 suggested by some earlier runs:🦄👀😁

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    So... Plenty of musings to go under he bridge yet, methinks!🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    10hpa and 30hpa going up nicely 

    5F7E816D-7D64-48CA-882E-BABB9AC3E47A.jpeg

    FC30CB10-710F-48F0-8DC5-8C02B0A74CA5.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    So? I didn't say right now, later on in the evening? We all have lives outside this forum, doesn't mean one should be belittled for engaging in it.

    It was a tongue in cheek comment he made lol basically if his got any sence he's gonna stay well clear!! Come on catch up lad lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    If I were him I would be having a ‘busy day at work’ today 😄

    😂😂😂 I had a busy 2 years when I couldn't stop offending everyone on hear lol 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    12 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    😂😂😂 I had a busy 2 years when I couldn't stop offending everyone on hear lol 

    At this rate all the new posters will have vanished. While the old heads have their fun. 

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    It seems like everything is on the table regarding the weather. I do think this mild spell will be less potent, but with these SSWs, it takes a while for it to pay off.

    To me this is more akin to early 2009..

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Didnt last SSW end up with us going mild and not cold,this looks similar again.UK winters whats the point...they always find a way for mild to come out the winner.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

    This is from a weather account I’ve followed for years and find it very reliable, they say this:

    “Also worth bearing in mind that uk cold spells are often preceded by a spell of high pressure (HP) over the UK

    The WAA injection emanates from the azores area and then ends up in northern latitudes after passing over the UK/Atlantic

    Therefore a spell of hp can't be ruled out”
     

    Something to think about👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Hope this doesn`t have much legs as I can`t remember stonking Iberian HP systems helping us in winter if you want cold down South. 

    gfsnh-0-192.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM holding high pressure after 144 hrs over us keeping the cold theme for a longer

    period.Interesting front moving down this Thursday could bring some snow so plenty 

    to look forward to.All of us waiting with bated breath for an idea what if any the SSW

    will have on the extended charts.My thinking some very exciting times ahead for cold lovers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3
  • Weather Preferences: Snow upon snow upon SNOW!!!
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3


    just started reading through this in relation to the SSW and what was going on pre 2018 BFTE... interesting read and “somewhat” similar to current situation 🤔

    anyone struggling with model fatigue this could be a welcome break from the current ones 😜🤘🏻
    there is also archived threads from when the beast arrived which I’ve not got onto yet but could also be worth a deek 👍🏻
     

    again in weather terms we are predicting lottery numbers so all the usual applies in terms of not being gospel etc

    could be epic though 🤞🏻🌨❄️🌨❄️🤞🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    20 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    This is from a weather account I’ve followed for years and find it very reliable, they say this:

    “Also worth bearing in mind that uk cold spells are often preceded by a spell of high pressure (HP) over the UK

    The WAA injection emanates from the azores area and then ends up in northern latitudes after passing over the UK/Atlantic

    Therefore a spell of hp can't be ruled out”
     

    Something to think about👀

    I’ve just been looking at past colder spells 2018 with high pressure moving up from south / south west then pushed north east in Scandinavia charts below 2018.

    FFA90081-6D4E-4B9E-B968-5702FDAF13D3.png

    CE2D4BE0-9481-4EF3-9A51-5C3F1DB8A0EF.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Didnt last SSW end up with us going mild and not cold,this looks similar again.UK winters whats the point...they always find a way for mild to come out the winner.

     

    Steady on.

    Fair enough, we're not getting an quick response, but it normally takes 2 to 3 weeks for a SSW to impact us, which is currently outside the range of the model output at the moment.

    Personally, I have written the 21st January down as a marker date. If we are not in or close to being in a proper cold spell by then, then I will start to worry.

    In the meantime, just start to watch whether bitter cold air start pooling to our North and North East.

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    Posted
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3
  • Weather Preferences: Snow upon snow upon SNOW!!!
  • Location: Glasshouses HG3

    It would seem that back in 2018 post SSW the gfs picked up on the BFTE 12 days before (modelled it 13th and hit us around the 25th) it hit our little island... might mean nothing but worth keeping an eye on what the gfs is saying in the coming days 😜👍🏻☃️🌨❄️

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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