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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

     

    The gfs/p has been trialed or is under trials and will take over the gfs,we don't know the verication stat's yet,well i don't anyway,hope that helps.

     

    Assuming the new GFS is version 16 then it is verifying to the same level as the GEM at day 6.

     

    cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.03f219f6b58a6f5c04a444b83333167e.png

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFSP to my eye showing consistency as I've been boring people all week, interesting to hear alternative perspectives, I suspect I'm becoming obsessed... 

    Another satisfactory day of model watching here. 

    gfsnh-1-258.png

    gfsnh-0-258.png

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    I already hear them birds chirping 🥴

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I am happy in the fact that both the gfs and gfs/p are more amplified than previous,let's see if we can get those amps further north in future runs☺️

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    Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: snow!!!!
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
    51 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Yes the upper flow is NW/W,but there are still a lot of high latitude blocking around Greenland>Urals.

    Could you expand on the impact of that please

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    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl

    Whatever way you look at it those runs were bad news for us today.Let's hope things look better in a week/10 days time

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

    Whatever way you look at it those runs were bad news for us today.Let's hope things look better in a week/10 days time

    Yup.

    Last night's pub run seems but a distant memory.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    This is what will probably happen after the ssw filters down . Same year in year out now . Terrible model outputs today 😞

    8819DC7A-8CE4-4506-86FE-9793C92C9583.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    13 minutes ago, Dibdabbers said:

    Could you expand on the impact of that please

    Hi 

    the green contour lines are the upper winds and as you can see from the black arrow the winds are NW towards the UK,i have circled where the trop pv is located and is as far away from the UK as possible which is a good thing when normally it is situated over Greenland,the L i have put is lower height's to the SE of the UK which in turn signals a trough/low in that area,the H is for higher heights(higher pressure)over Greenland and towards the Urals,the Urals is in the Norwegian,Barents sea

    610day_03.thumb.gif.c7094f36762bb824b6c083fb12831893.gif

    the impact is still unclear but higher height's into the pole(N pole) are far better than lower height's up there as this would drive more of a westerly influence from the Atlantic into the UK ,i hope this helps.☺️ 

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
    9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    This is what will probably happen after the ssw filters down . Same year in year out now . Terrible model outputs today 😞

    8819DC7A-8CE4-4506-86FE-9793C92C9583.png

    That’s about as bad as it gets for us, a supercharged jet firing straight into us!! Thanks god it’s so far away!! 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Even flatter 18z suite, absolute agony this is turning into today.

    image.thumb.png.dcf0f7654b573d1080463177bee7529c.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

     

    26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    This is what will probably happen after the ssw filters down . Same year in year out now . Terrible model outputs today 😞

    8819DC7A-8CE4-4506-86FE-9793C92C9583.png

    image.thumb.png.a906c6715f20fbfa03651edf32a36876.png

    Jan 2013. The above saw a red warning in wales for heavy snow and blizzard like conditions. While it does infuse the jet it doesnt put a complete end to a UK cold spell, was also off the back of a split SSW.

     

     

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    I’m taking a two week break hopefully something more interesting will be on show especially for me in south east England I haven’t seen a snowflake yet...

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton
  • Location: Northampton
    14 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

     

    image.thumb.png.a906c6715f20fbfa03651edf32a36876.png

    Jan 2013. The above saw a red warning in wales for heavy snow and blizzard like conditions. While it does infuse the jet it doesnt put a complete end to a UK cold spell, was also off the back of a split SSW.

     

     

    image.png

    Yes similar situation here  - turbocharged jet heading straight for Africa

     

     

    gfsnh-5-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Galashiels
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather in winter
  • Location: Galashiels
    15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Absolutely @MATTWOLVES👍

    we can't have cold days everyday of the winter it's fact,even the best winters have there mild moments and sometimes they don't get going until the latter third of January>

    i see nothing remotely zonal in the models at present,IE:-west to east full on

    look at the gfs and gfs/p tonight in motion...

    anim_www2.thumb.gif.2b46b4b35ff089342cc309319f74a149.gifanim_vyh6.thumb.gif.f981e5d3e14fb9214d543d3268a753a5.gif

    none of them showing a pv located over Greenland,patience peeps☺️

    let's just enjoy this cold spell with a few wintry hazzards along the way this week and see what crops up eh.

    BTW @Snowman.,great analysis there and it shows you that you cannot take fl seriously and things can and will change quickly especially with an SSW on our tails.

     

     

    I agree,nothing remotely zonal but same results...wet and windy,mild with colder interludes.No freeze up,no persistent or recurring cold cycles.Resetting to normal notwithstanding the SSW.I don’t like it either.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

    Dam I must of lost about 1 hour of my life reading through these posts. Up and down again like a Yo Yo. 

    I think I shall sit down and put some comedy retro into my Beetamax and watch the Goodies  because they make more sense than the Snow starved I want it in my garden and not giving it to anyone. Sometimes this group is really biased. I feel for the Mods for removing posts. Can we just stick to Model Disscusion and not its going to Snow inmbg... Its cold and its locked in for at least another week or more. 

    OK it's not 2010 nirvana but it's better than the dross  we had last year... Sorry mods we'll of topic but I give up reading one liners at times. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Interesting ENS from 18z - looked similar to UKMO then ...

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Icon at 180.

    Heights starting to pop up over the Arctic.

    Amplification towards Greenland once more. Could this mild blip be only a few days? Here's hoping. Deep cold into Eastern Scandinavia

    12z 180 also attached for comparison

    iconnh-0-180 (7).png

     

    iconnh-1-180 (2).png

    iconnh-0-180 (6).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    UKMO at 144 v icon at 144, too early to see if it would go down the same path, but they don't look very similar too me

    Edit : added GFS at 144, Arctic heights also increasing

     

     

    UN144-21 (7).gif

    iconnh-0-144 (2).png

    gfsnh-0-144 (6).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Very difficult to trust any output when there is such a huge divergence between models by just 96h, UKMO, GFS very different.

    UW96-21.GIF?04-05gfs-0-96.png

    Sure if it was 144 you wouldn't think huge difference, but very rare to see that much difference after such a short period into the run

    By 144 they may was well be for different dates.

    UN144-21.GIF?04-05gfsnh-0-144.png

     

    GFS 168 is another improvement over 18z. Note the thin wedge of heights developing to the N and the better upstream amplification and of course the pattern is backed further W

    gfsnh-0-168.png

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Very difficult to trust any output when there is such a huge divergence between models at just 96h, UKMO, GFS very different.

    UN96-21.GIF?04-05gfs-0-96.png

     

    Agreed, the only trend they have in common is the increased Arctic heights squeezing cold out towards the lower latitudes

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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