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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    -8's starting to push into the north,a lot better than the 12z

    gfs-1-252.thumb.png.33c3c14d0b65b01d732c7db9736cb148.png

    at least it is a step in the right direction.

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  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFSp sticking with the idea of keeping Atlantic pressure high and close to or over the UK, that would certainly keep things cold at the surface.

    gfsnh-0-192.png?18

    I haven't really rated it so far, it seems quite inconsistent and no great improvement over the current GFS, but since my hopes of the deep Scandi trough crashed and burned I guess this would be the next best option from where we are, frost and fog, especially if we are lucky enough to get snow cover. Needs to be further East (damn it said W) to prevent the mild NW flow and stagnate the air.

    Edited by Mucka
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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gfs/p is starting to re amplify the pattern with WAA into W Greenland.

    gfseu-0-204.thumb.png.ccc65b5e86f86579dcc26fe90080eba7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Hi moving north to Greenland. Going to be a good finish I think. 

    Screenshot_20210103-224139.png

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  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

    Is Marco trying to be cryptic in his tweet just then regarding the sea ice with a wink?

    No, simply just pointing out the lack of sea ice this year compared to previous years. Nothing to do with model output.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    And as previously, very tantalising just a bit further east with cold

    gfsnh-1-216.png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Vikos said:

    Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

    Quick search reveals increased resolution, parallel will replace current 

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  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

    The models are continually updated and new updates are trialled as Parallel runs to the original.

    They are sure to differ just as each ensemble member in a  suite will differ though not for the same reasons, ensembles start with slightly modified starting data I believe.

     

    Edited by Mucka
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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gfs and gfs/p are very zonal,...NOT!!!

    gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.fb03053c2a2e1a9b4797ffb83c0f87f0.pnggfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.6e541e2a8598c9450d64c61d384a8006.png

    these could end up very well indeed.

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    Just now, Griff said:

    Quick search reveals increased resolution, parallel will replace current 

    This replacement ever happens? For years now there are 2 gfs runs... Why don’t we all agree then to use ONLY GFSp?

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    image.thumb.png.ed58ef4c9e2bfbd1d54b5a462c117540.png

    Near vertical tilt to the jet... We are trending towards another ridge building North day 9-11. Current launch site looks just west of the   UK. Strengthen this signal a bit more and we can start thinking about where this ridge is going...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS //doing the splits at T222:

    8F578965-F33C-4E56-96C5-CC23CA662B0C.thumb.png.9fc2d33c2ea6971c8fec4cead83d9b76.png

    But that time is beyond uncertainty at earlier times, so I guess we’ll be back tomorrow morning, or if your an afternoon model person like i am, then laters...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    I would say low confidence in the models past 4 days .

    Is better than having high confidence in milder weather returning after 4 days if you prefer wintery weather. 

    Even the professionals are struggling past 5 days.

    Here it is 1.oC with scattered snow showers and ice forming 

    Pictures tomorrow in the regional thread.

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    Posted
  • Location: York, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Heat
  • Location: York, UK

    Both GFS's are slowly heading towards scandi heights from what i'm seeing

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  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Vikos said:

    This replacement ever happens? For years now there are 2 gfs runs... Why don’t we all agree then to use ONLY GFSp?

    You're missing the version number - they change as the parallel replaces existing. 

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  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    This replacement ever happens? For years now there are 2 gfs runs... Why don’t we all agree then to use ONLY GFSp?

     

    The same reason we don't all just use ECM and look at the ensembles

    The more data the better.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales



    image.thumb.png.f0767cca8a41dfa50f9d093f388ee33b.png 
    It's this picture GFS 12z 141 hours , it's vastly different from the previous run,
    - the low above Iceland seems to be more Northward, and it has been in very different positions in the last 24 hours+  ~ it seems to be slowing down the approach of the high pressure as well as allowing the low pressure to come from Spain (Iberia?) This latter thing seems to be a new feature not in the previous 3 GFS models, the said low pressure was directed more across Central Europe.. 

    I think this is the 3 way battle ground that is still on going and to be observed  
    (I have very little knowledge about what i'm talking, but I am seeing the comparisons from previous runs, feed back is very very welcome! )

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

     

    5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Some has to explain me why there are 2 GFS Models simultaneously with different outcome. That’s nonsense in my eyes. I could cherrypick every 6h to which my gusto goes. *confused*

    The gfs/p has been trialed or is under trials and will take over the gfs,we don't know the verication stat's yet,well i don't anyway,hope that helps.

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  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, ianmm94 said:

    Both GFS's are slowly heading towards scandi heights from what i'm seeing

    258 was the magic number on the last gfsp, just optimistically looking for trends here 👍

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  • Location: York, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Heat
  • Location: York, UK
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    258 was the magic number on the last gfsp, just optimistically looking for trends here 👍

    Just need that Russian high on the parallel run to disappear next

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    gfs 18z is going to struggle to drive much of a ridge against that ! 
     

     iimage.thumb.png.e6bd2d27e76ed1596c1d1ab464619e4d.png

     

    "That" is my busted mid month(ish) deep Scandi trough since our blocking pattern got shunted E. Half of it (PV) gets forced W and the other half  S instead of it all being drawn SW and giving us deep cold. 😭

    Edited by Mucka
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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