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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
    59 minutes ago, BARRY said:

    You forget that there are a lot of members who live in not so favoured areas 

    I suspect he doesn't forget that, since he acknowledges explicitly that it is SOME members who have been enjoying great conditions. Probably also expects people on here to behave like adults and to be capable of accepting others having a good time without becoming upset because they haven't had the right weather themselves...

    Aaanyway, a little disheartened by today's modelling of the next few days in the SE - not the upgrades I was hoping for, and some warmer 850s threatened than shown yesterday.

    On the brighter side, we had ice-y, hail-y pellets today among what I expected to be uniformly rain.

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Managed to find an omega symbol 

    Ω

    Not sure it's going to be required for very long.... 🤔 

     

    gfsnh-0-72.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Like the icon, the shortwave isn't blowing up as much compared to the 12z and the low in the canaries is now Iberia. Let's see what happens past 120.

    In other news I now have a -10 over my house!

     

    gfsnh-0-108 (1).png

    18_30_ukthickness850.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    Just now, chionomaniac said:

    Lol. Good ole pub run delivering a straighter northerly and less of a collapsing ridge

    Yes this should be the point that the Atlantic depressions realise they don't have thier usual oomphhhh... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
    13 minutes ago, IDO said:

    So the gfs op 12z was a signature run?

    >>>anim_tvz7.gif

    If that is the case, def a period of unsettled weather for the UK up to and beyond d16; so end of month for the blocks to settle and maybe an Atlantic ridge for our sector and hopefully not too west based? The Pacific ridge seems more Alaska based on this suite, a recurring theme this winter?

    The mean...

    anim_irq6.gif

    ...shows a similar pattern as you suggest but for obvious reasons not so well defined. That does suggest the transitory phase will not be blocked, so normal UK Jan flow?

    Observe the pattern, three TPV lobes are forming. SSW will disintegrate TPV to mid latitudes. One will be for Europe, question is how far west it can move.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    10 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Managed to find an omega symbol 

    Ω

    Not sure it's going to be required for very long.... 🤔 

     

    gfsnh-0-72.png

     

    1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

    Lol. Good ole pub run delivering a straighter northerly and less of a collapsing ridge

    Obviously it's decided to be a bit more stubborn and linger a bit longer! 

     

    gfsnh-0-114.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I will post these,...and i don't need to say much.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.843852ac0b63f098fc869baeca22b9cb.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ca7e237ca7cddea90574ab5cd28bad50.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    11 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

    I suspect he doesn't forget that, since he acknowledges explicitly that it is SOME members who have been enjoying great conditions. Probably also expects people on here to behave like adults and to be capable of accepting others having a good time without becoming upset because they haven't had the right weather themselves...

    Aaanyway, a little disheartened by today's modelling of the next few days in the SE - not the upgrades I was hoping for, and some warmer 850s threatened than shown yesterday.

    On the brighter side, we had ice-y, hail-y pellets today among what I expected to be uniformly rain.

    I’ve got a right one size 10 if you’re looking for a pair🤣🤣

     

    Gfs is still having ago, reminds me of Mrs that ECM😩😩

    94BA3E1E-9F74-4342-902E-11AD5E5B1231.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    11 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

    I suspect he doesn't forget that, since he acknowledges explicitly that it is SOME members who have been enjoying great conditions. Probably also expects people on here to behave like adults and to be capable of accepting others having a good time without becoming upset because they haven't had the right weather themselves...

    Aaanyway, a little disheartened by today's modelling of the next few days in the SE - not the upgrades I was hoping for, and some warmer 850s threatened than shown yesterday.

    On the brighter side, we had ice-y, hail-y pellets today among what I expected to be uniformly rain.

    Wow Icey pellets...this is the winter that keeps on giving 🤣 we are getting really desperate in the south aren’t we!  Looks like Friday is the best chance for most. Just need that front to not decay as it heads south. Fingers crossed for a Flurry for Barry in Costa Del Devon 🤞

    5F32FC79-9827-4E99-AF4E-489861377B9B.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    52 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Good explanation.....that good for the uk tho lol?

    If Kyle Henry is right It's very bad for us. North America going cold usually means the jet stream flinging lows at us. It shows the folly of us saying  there was no chance of zonality, because if he is right that's exactly what will likely happen. Let us hope it would only be temporary, but who can say for sure.

    Edited by Bricriu
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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Forget the low to the NW, my attention would be to the S over Iberia. Quite a steep thermal gradient to take place, and could blow that low up a fair bit. It’s having a big influence on this run at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Oh after all the angst in here earlier, LOL if the pub run is still groping for it:

    E3478607-9AFE-4657-963D-1D2B7CD3E94C.thumb.png.03c3ba47c3f5c7257058d79583054bfe.png

    Parallel is also having a pause for thought... Marginally slower pushing west to east. 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I will post these,...and i don't need to say much.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.843852ac0b63f098fc869baeca22b9cb.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.ca7e237ca7cddea90574ab5cd28bad50.gif

    Well one shows a northwesterly and the other a westerly so 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Can't be often you see the 20C isotherm sneaking into the Med in January. 

    image.thumb.png.382a99800e77bc3ee12c06abdf8956bb.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
    Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    Well one shows a northwesterly and the other a westerly so 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

    I don't understand the pictures really 😕

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

    If Kyle Henry is right It's very bad for us. North America going cold usually means the jet stream flinging lows at us. It shows the folly of us saying  there was no chance of zonality, because if he is right that's exactly what will likely happen. I'd hope it would only be temporary, but who can say for sure.

    I don’t think it’s always a guarantee that America going cold results us in a mild westerly regime?

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it
  • Location: Belper
    1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

    I don't understand the pictures really 😕

    Not me. Two pictures of North America with loads of lines all over them 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    Well one shows a northwesterly and the other a westerly so 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

    Yes the upper flow is NW/W,but there are still a lot of high latitude blocking around Greenland>Urals.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Let's just hope this is just our 'temporary blip' before conditions turn colder as progged by the MetOffice

    image.thumb.png.91de894a1e2a51ebdb45d44381d415cf.png
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

    I don't understand the pictures really 😕

    The red dotted lines are the areas of high pressure, the green line is the direction of travel/wind

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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