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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Evening all

    Hope you are all well.

    I have not even had the chance to read this current thread but what a great spell of Winter weather it has been for many Netweather members/guests this last week to ten days - below average temperatures and plenty of snowfall for many...which is still on the ground for quite a few! ☃️

    Another new week is about to begin and guess what!? It’s below average once again and the risk of snowfall throughout the UK and Ireland.

    UKV predicted temperature snapshots:

    Monday 12:00

    3011650C-D894-4BD8-9C1E-5A00CFE584B7.thumb.png.03260ecc3271386b2447897e5a4bf4bc.png
     

    Tuesday 12:00

    D4C0A675-AB27-4513-87BB-E1010638F3B6.thumb.png.fdcf25cb7bf26b2e56405ca52e6917bf.png

     

    Wednesday 12:00

    8D51DE2E-39BB-44CB-9DD9-AE32F2F6E7E2.thumb.png.c85b9a2e87c149af4c0235252494e0c1.png
     

    Thursday 12:00

    6DCFED2A-DE26-48C5-83FB-F88A1D1345F6.thumb.png.0b0f24925fbfb91b2465eebe6d18c56a.png

     

    Friday looking good as well...

    03:00

    78F2F96C-D498-412B-96A1-A5BA1B07762B.thumb.png.07930985a3891545d75881c9d38d6546.pngF7927E8C-0F34-4753-9F72-EE71E069F055.thumb.png.a93eb11a81a1e22410711d94c2180d85.png7C3DCEBB-321C-49FE-8DD7-3FAB609B8044.thumb.png.5aa049425c3d4aae0a6ed7c8566063c3.png
     

    12:00

    38293281-8B8C-4613-8AB5-3CA5D07D5B95.thumb.png.4ac6db7f935fdb817f8a1fb775c78ed0.png
     

    I am starting to forget what mild weather is...-5c here on the West Coast of Scotland this morning, ice days galore...unbelievable stuff and it just goes on and on for myself and many others in this thread! 

    Bring on the mild! It’s long overdue! 😆 When it does finally arrive...you would be a brave man/woman to bet on it hanging around for long. 😃:santa-emoji:

    All the best to you all!

    Roll on Summer! 😎😉

    You forget that there are a lot of members who live in not so favoured areas 

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    So after it’s happened and the models have the data they will settle down a bit? So Tuesday we should start to see some effects modelled ?

    Yes from what I remember in 2018 that's what will happen. It will become very obvious in the models at least beginning to play with solutions. That's how I remember 2018 beginning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
    7 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    Yes from what I remember in 2018 that's what will happen. It will become very obvious in the models at least beginning to play with solutions. That's how I remember 2018 beginning.

    Yep a good day or 2 now and i think we will see some changes....not before a wee milder (but still not bbq!!) spell. I'm gonna get some beers in for friday night....reckon by then we will be celebrating some better output! 

    Edited by Chertseystreamer79
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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    8 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    Yes from what I remember in 2018 that's what will happen. It will become very obvious in the models at least beginning to play with solutions. That's how I remember 2018 beginning.

    But at what point does gfs show a starting point for the ssws effects? We were looking at a vortex torn apart just a couple of days ago with endless cold. Isn't that about to be scuppered by the ssw? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    When did the SSW of 2018 happen? Was it mid february?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
    4 minutes ago, topo said:

    When did the SSW of 2018 happen? Was it mid february?

    I think it was early Feb.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    8 minutes ago, topo said:

    When did the SSW of 2018 happen? Was it mid february?

    Not sure of the exact date, but it can’t have been far off this one 16/2:

    30AA60FD-82E5-4D40-A409-B706F97993A2.thumb.png.3436ca5863a24bf0c0986313e3718c34.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

    For those that care to know, this post is for you.
    The Tropospheric Polar Vortex is a maelstrom, hence the difficulty for models to forecast the precise mapping of it’s movements. 
     

    Therefore during SSW events you’ve got to look higher up in the atmosphere, when there you’ve got to watch for the formation of -AO in the Polar region.

    ECMWF 240z from Berlin at 100hPa has the -AO form on the Northern Pacific side of NH

    FE6D0403-479F-4C16-A5DD-0439AED1DE2E.thumb.png.0c99a3ff2659b48055c7bb299b9762a8.png

     

    The GFS excels at picking up the pattern at range and predicts the TPV bleed across Polar region. This brings the Northern US back into winter proper.

    The GFS’s flaw exist in timings of the exact movement. 
    Whereas the ECMWF runs approximately 3 days behind the GFS before it nails the exact movements of TPV and the GFS flounders.

    2AD38C66-08F7-4EC6-AB01-C9692190BDB6.thumb.png.4c61a73bf1ae8e05cf5c7fda0fd81f5c.png7579D56B-A285-4348-B17C-FFA6584AD7B0.thumb.png.f8b7bd5039af80cb465b0b6a0a34297f.png

    All I’ll say now is watch for TPV transfer from East Asia into N. America. WWA up via Pacific to form -AO. What happens afterwards can be deciphered by each others level of understanding.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Hmmm icon at 120 not making as much of the shortwave over the tip of Greenland, probably won't make a long term difference though, would be good if it doesn't blow up, as it allows a little more ridging into the Iceland area. The low that was in the canaries is now in Iberia too.

     

    Edit; 126 added for comparison

     

    iconnh-0-120 (9).png

    iconnh-0-126 (3).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

    For those that care to know, this post is for you.
    The Tropospheric Polar Vortex is a maelstrom, hence the difficulty for models to forecast the precise mapping of it’s movements. 
     

    Therefore during SSW events you’ve got to look higher up in the atmosphere, when there you’ve got to watch for the formation of -AO in the Polar region.

    ECMWF 240z from Berlin at 100hPa has the -AO form on the Northern Pacific side of NH

    FE6D0403-479F-4C16-A5DD-0439AED1DE2E.thumb.png.0c99a3ff2659b48055c7bb299b9762a8.png

     

    The GFS excels at picking up the pattern at range and predicts the TPV bleed across Polar region. This brings the Northern US back into winter proper.

    The GFS’s flaw exist in timings of the exact movement. 
    Whereas the ECMWF runs approximately 3 days behind the GFS before it nails the exact movements of TPV and the GFS flounders.

    2AD38C66-08F7-4EC6-AB01-C9692190BDB6.thumb.png.4c61a73bf1ae8e05cf5c7fda0fd81f5c.png7579D56B-A285-4348-B17C-FFA6584AD7B0.thumb.png.f8b7bd5039af80cb465b0b6a0a34297f.png

    All I’ll say now is watch for TPV transfer from East Asia into N. America. WWA up via Pacific to form -AO. What happens afterwards can be deciphered by each others level of understanding.

    Good explanation.....that good for the uk tho lol?

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    Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
    Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

    Good explanation.....that good for the uk tho lol?

    in the models if it looks like the TPV is traveling over us to get to the USA I'd imagine the UK would get slammed 

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Hmmm icon at 120 not making as much of the shortwave over the tip of Greenland, probably won't make a long term difference though, would be good if it doesn't blow up, as it allows a little more ridging into the Iceland area. The low that was in the canaries is now in Iberia too.

     

    Edit; 126 added for comparison

     

    iconnh-0-120 (9).png

    iconnh-0-126 (3).png

    A tad more amplified but no great difference to us on our islands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    First round of Onslaught from the Artic this coming week. Easterly then a deluge of cold from the Artic the Roller coaster has just begun!,!!!

    h850t850eu-15.png

    h850t850eu-16.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Before this place goes mad again just a pun I think we may end up with another easterly, the high that topples over us gets propped up by the low pressure in the southern Atlantic as it extends an arm into Europe and moves north east, I think its a plausible path.. But as ever time will see 

    Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Posted (edited)
    50 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, I think so, because the modelling will be then based on observations at all layers after a very significant and quick evolution in the strat.  It’s not called a sudden stratospheric warming for nothing. I would still like to understand more about why it is always so sudden - I mean, we’ve been watching these precursors the last month or more, why does it suddenly go bang!?  Maybe one for @chionomaniac?  

    Just had a gander at the ecm modelling from the period pre and post ssw onset from feb 2018.  The amplification that the model found post ssw was way higher than pre ....

     unarguable 

    gfs was finding way more amplification in week 2 than ecm prior to the onset .... 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Just had a gander at the ecm modelling from the period pre and post ssw onset from feb 2018.  The amplification that the model found post ssw was way higher than pre ....

     unarguable 

    It might be unarguable if i knew what we were arguing about 😀

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    It might be unarguable if i knew what we were arguing about 😀

    That ec modelling became more amplified after the tech ssw began ......

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    That ec modelling became more amplified after the tech ssw began ......

    That’s five-by-five for me, it did, it is whether it became more uncertain before, and less uncertain after that, I’m suggesting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    27 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Hmmm icon at 120 not making as much of the shortwave over the tip of Greenland, probably won't make a long term difference though, would be good if it doesn't blow up, as it allows a little more ridging into the Iceland area. The low that was in the canaries is now in Iberia too.

     

    Edit; 126 added for comparison

     

    iconnh-0-120 (9).png

    iconnh-0-126 (3).png

    My eyes is drawn to that Iberian low once again. Not sure why but have feeling it may well become more important in events going forward. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    2 minutes ago, Mildcarlisle said:

    Why has the ‘members online’ facility disappeared?

    This usually happens this time of year, must take up too much bandwidth when there are 5000 members digging themselves out of snow.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    18 minutes ago, KyleHenry said:

     

    All I’ll say now is watch for TPV transfer from East Asia into N. America. WWA up via Pacific to form -AO. What happens afterwards can be deciphered by each others level of understanding.

    So the gfs op 12z was a signature run?

    >>>anim_tvz7.gif

    If that is the case, def a period of unsettled weather for the UK up to and beyond d16; so end of month for the blocks to settle and maybe an Atlantic ridge for our sector and hopefully not too west based? The Pacific ridge seems more Alaska based on this suite, a recurring theme this winter?

    The mean...

    anim_irq6.gif

    ...shows a similar pattern as you suggest but for obvious reasons not so well defined. That does suggest the transitory phase will not be blocked, so normal UK Jan flow?

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    Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    This usually happens this time of year, must take up too much bandwidth when there are 5000 members digging themselves out of snow.  

    😉👍

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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