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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, Notty said:

    As usual, day 4/5 seems to be where the uncertainty really starts. All still to play for.

    To be fair, whilst specific surface detail still remains open, the broad route of where our weather is going for the next week - 2 weeks is a bit clearer this evening.

    Up until next weekend - coldish easterly flow, getting a bit colder as the week progresses, some rain, some sleet and some snow about.

    Some point over the weekend and into next week - turning less cold.  Possibly a bit drier as pressure builds from the west.  Nothing of note really happening at the surface.

    What happens into week 2 and beyond is open to question.  Whilst things turn back towards more accustomed January conditions mid month at the surface, the Atlantic and Arctic profiles are far from typical.  You could make a claim for pretty much any direction you want to and find a chart to support your view from somewhere.  Colder again during the last third of the month is a possibility as per the Meto long range forecast but who really knows for sure!

    EC ends on a "blobby vortex" note;

    Screenshot_2021-01-03-19-06-40-90.thumb.jpg.688d90822b9b2eddae9b0e7dd58d7219.jpg

    At least there might be a frost?  😳😜

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Short term pain, long term gain?

    All for fun, but the "No cold pool to the East" comments will soon be forgotten if anything like this becomes reality.

    EC850-240 3jan12.png

    Yes but when the jet doesn't favour us...need a trigger of some sort and maybe a weak Atlantic in a week or so's time could do it if the jet is then favourable. All we've had is a trough near us or to our north and those dark blues/purples have been nowhere to be seen but now the nhp is changing somewhat...

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
    6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Is that the most boring ECM run in Netweather history? It seemed as though nothing happened!

    I get the feeling the models are in a kind of holding pattern until the start warming filters through. 

    I agree. The general pattern on the 12z is very similar to the morning run to the end of run. Of course anything around 96 to 120 hrs is FI in my view. It seems to very slow at evolving and flatter compared to a few days ago. Think your right, they have hit a brick wall for now, until the SSW starts to show its hand on the models. Even then expect many twists and turns as the models juggle with the new data.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Unfortunately patience is going to be the key word as we wait and see if we can tap into the bitter cold spilling into mid latitudes. 

    I think we're looking at post the 20th of January.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    If only half the 'upgrades' promised for today's 'Beast' had materialised, the Thames'd be frozen over by now!😁

    I don't know what your talking about? who mentioned upgrades, somebody in the mod thread? 😁 I thought towards mid-month they'd be continual upgrades...

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    ECM 12z looking to hold high pressure past the 144 hrs right to the end of the run,a difference 

    from this mornings when the high slipped away southwards and low pressure took over the Atlantic.

    Just to rubber stamp the uncertainty.On the verge of something very special mums the word until 

    the big kick off.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Unfortunately patience is going to be the key word as we wait and see if we can tap into the bitter cold spilling into mid latitudes. 

    I think we're looking at post the 20th of January.

    That could well be the case. Though I think we will still see huge swings in the output in the next few days. 

    Patience could well be the key...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    image.thumb.png.6edea7c26e43330796f06c23c77144cb.png

    Mild trend gathering momentum now again and reeling in like clockwork.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    20 minutes ago, Trom said:

    I may be getting confused but doesn't that paper just focus on the ability of the model in predicting the SSW and not on what the implications post SSW on the trop are?

    Sorry Trom.

    Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open question. Here we report on the prediction of the SSW on 12 February 2018, its dynamical precursors, and surface climate impacts by an ensemble of dynamical forecast models. The ensemble forecast from 1 February predicted 3 times increased odds of an SSW compared to climatology, although the lead time for SSW prediction varied among individual models. Errors in the forecast location of a Ural high and underestimated magnitude of upward wave activity flux reduced SSW forecast skill. Although the SSW's downward influence was not well forecasted, the observed northern Eurasia cold anomaly following SSW was predicted, albeit with a weaker magnitude, due to persistent tropospheric anomalies. The ensemble forecast from 8 February predicted the SSW, its subsequent downward influence, and a long-lasting cold anomaly at the surface.

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    Posted
  • Location: worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: worcester

    A BFTE or a BFTNE would be perfect when or if down welling hits perfectly!! My god this place would be throwing toys in happiness- bring on the beast 🙏🙏

    MNR

    35D1ADFE-48DC-4790-A814-6F559E817AA6.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    image.thumb.png.6edea7c26e43330796f06c23c77144cb.png

    Mild trend gathering momentum now again and reeling in like clockwork.

    Amazing when milder runs start showing they nearly always verify, yet cold runs in the latter timframe don't, put your house on it turning milder now by end of week, need a quick flip to cold because these mild patterns can last for weeks

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    image.thumb.png.6edea7c26e43330796f06c23c77144cb.png

    Mild trend gathering momentum now again and reeling in like clockwork.

    Feb..

    The mean ends on 0c and its only such a steep rise cause we currently at almost - 10c. 

    Could be a cold surface high for all we know going off them charts. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    If this is ECM attempt at a resurgent Atlantic it’s thankfully a complete failure !

    Very little going on upstream and a bit more amplification which is possible could see a quite different picture downstream .

    It doesn’t need a Hollywood scriptwriter to imagine how the pattern could evolve more favourably from day 7. 

    I'm pleasantly surprised Nick..

    Zonal express turning into a National Express from Manchester to Blackpool...

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    image.thumb.png.2ccfae31f08b4fbe956980092ca7ec2d.png No lack of cold to our east now, which is exactly where it needs to be for the return of the Beast!

    Stock up on bread, beans and bog roll now coz in a couple of weeks we'll be in proper lockdown and have the Beast baring down on us!

    Edited by Snowmut
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Amazing when milder runs start showing they nearly always verify, yet cold runs in the latter timframe don't, put your house on it turning milder now by end of week, need a quick flip to cold because these mild patterns can last for weeks

    If you think of a second this “less cold”

    period (if it even happens!) could last weeks - I’ll happily bet more than my house on that it won’t!

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    4 minutes ago, wolvesfan said:

    Evening all

    spent years watching the models,very seldom they are wrong,even more rarely they backtrack.nothing but cold rain in the output and tbh anyone who can see anything but,are kidding themselves. 

    Well thats a result then because the GFS has been showing snow for me all week! 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models continue to suggest a change around 9 January, all thanks to a reorientation of heights, these are forecast to sink further south and allow a milder atlantic feed to move in. However, no model is showing any return to a very active atlantic anytime soon, heights look like sticking to our SW, with weak frontal features moving around the edges, whilst at the same time we see much colder uppers dig down into Europe with the longwave trough setting up shop there. Indications are heights will stay fairly high to our north as well. Dynamics moving forward would suggest the heights to our SW will have an easy time of advecting north again towards Greenland. So we may end up with a temporary shortlived milder though not especially unsettled spell from 9th followed by something colder as we move further through middle of the month.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    23 minutes ago, Ventnor Viking said:

    How many times has it been said that it will start to show in the coming days/weeks, no offence to any posters, but I must watching different runs to everyone else. All of the cold is pushing out to the east and the HP is collapsing... Yes there will be some surface cold for a while as standard with winter HP but nothing significant. The new members must be so confused. 

    Are you familiar with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and the reversal of the Stratospheric Vortex? 
     

    This is not an annual event, and can have dramatic affects on the lower atmosphere. The BFTE was a consequence of a SSW, though it was late in the season. We currently have an SSW happening relatively early in the winter, so be open to higher odds of ‘proper cold’ as we go through and beyond mid month.

    The ‘how many times’ comment is perhaps a little out of context in this particular period 🙂 
    Though, as ever, nothing is set in stone with such a fluid and complex
     atmosphere. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I first posted that the GEFS were starting to show some mild members at the very end a week or so ago and I was shot down in flames and told to pay no attention. Every day over the last week the milder members have increased and are now flattening out. Hopefully the warming up next week is just temporary, but it shows us the value of ensembles to spot trends 

    I have to agree with you regarding spotting trends within the ensembles 

    It is what it is unfortunately but at least next week they will be come cold and the chances of some snowfall for some 

    Hopefully during this time we might start getting a trend for quite cold conditions to make a comeback though of course it's all up in the air due to SSW and other factors 

    It all makes for some great model watching regardless of mild or cold 

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    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
    9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I'm pleasantly surprised Nick..

    Zonal express turning into a National Express from Manchester to Blackpool...

    At least it would be going east to west then

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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