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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    GFS ensembles fail to take the mean above average for the entire run (that’s 15 days!)

    The spread starts from day 9.

    Yes we have no ‘Armageddon’ runs but overall it’s a cold and below average suit. Reading certain posts it seems we are heading for mild nivarna!
     

    Hopefully we can get some snow on the ground this coming week, which should help negate some of the frustration in the thread.  
     

    Then we have the SSW coming into the mix mid month onwards.
     

    FFF4889C-9AFC-43CC-A05C-C9CB4095DBF6.thumb.png.6258f430cd71a861571aaa40f3c56926.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    ECM 12z T+96

    image.thumb.png.c8fd797f465f3d1c5c7651d7b215acde.png

    ECM 12z T+120

    image.thumb.png.703003995d1a7f6f43c69c0a7c6537c1.png

    Where does that LP between Greenland and Iceland spring up from out of nowhere in 24 hours?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    I do chuckle when I see comments like "the models haven't got a clue" or "they haven't factored in the SSW yet".

    They do and they have....

    They are computer algorithms fed with a vast amount of information regarding current atmospheric conditions. The fact they vary so wildly right now, demonstrates the fact that these conditions are very volatile due to the fact we have an SSW happening at this moment and subject to change at very short notice, hence the multitude of possible outcomes we are seeing. They are also fed this information at different times. So what data one model is given, may have changed by the time another is given its input. 

    So, what the models are showing us is that the weather itself is currently highly unpredictable.... 

    Whatever happens, just watch and enjoy the show.... 😉 

    Yes but how the algorithms cope with such rare event's it uncertain.  It's way away from climatic norms.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    much improved ECM this eve!

    Colder as well

    Not good for your area first half of the week though ? 

    27DB70AC-281B-4A09-BAF3-C704482A2348.png

    18D186DD-D4B0-4EA5-B72B-D0CFA0451635.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL

    Good agreement between ECM and UKMO 12z

    image.thumb.png.2879cb2a1c353b6b35fce114b8d2856f.png

    image.png

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Ignore extra image - can't delete it !! (Extra image removed - DRL)
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    4 minutes ago, Trom said:

    Yes but how the algorithms cope with such rare event's it uncertain.  It's way away from climatic norms.

    Exactly. That's my point... 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Ec looks to be flattening out on the 12z.not sure where fi is but the low existing the USA flattens things out in theory. Great nhp so I guess things subject to change.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Notty said:

    Good agreement between ECM and UKMO 12z

    image.thumb.png.2879cb2a1c353b6b35fce114b8d2856f.png

    image.png

    image.png

    Good.. might indicate where ukm is heading too.  My two pennies worth if I may is that we again appear to have reached a blended solution for days 5 and 6 which is a safe bet usually.. sometimes one model is slightly more dominant than the other and it appears for this episode it was the euros..next time the balance might shift the other way, but its my mantra and usually serves well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    3 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

    What if UKMo is actually up to something bigger B0239FB5-8576-431C-B0E0-2B4BF31D39C6.thumb.jpeg.680813d3369c01de3130dd0772c25cf8.jpeg

    Please could you explain 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    10 minutes ago, Trom said:

    Yes but how the algorithms cope with such rare event's it uncertain.  It's way away from climatic norms.

    Well. Perhaps this was in the past so, but there seems to me enough vertical layers in e.g. EC-oper, to know what's going on. It's just a part of the atmosphere.

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    Posted
  • Location: worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: worcester
    1 minute ago, Notty said:

    Please could you explain 🙂

    The point being with that set up the winds would come from much further east!! Plus much colder! Lucky if it happens tho but who knows
     

    MNR 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    ECM re-amping a lot better than this morning.

    image.thumb.png.2fe0bf8978bd079a58d1be28cea8e55d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Disappointing ECM run it must be said, there’s more amplification than the 0z but it’s about to be flattened again, hopefully we start to see some fast results from the SSW soon, otherwise I fear this place could become a toy missile launch centre 😂

     

     

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Wedge?

    image.thumb.png.e50ad2cdc9592924a67a196c333c58ba.png

    A lot more amplified long may it contine.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    38 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    For me, I am not too concerned about the change in model direction over the last 24 hours.  I suspect it is SSW related. Also I think it is highly likely to be temporary.  

    If you remember yesterday, I demonstrated that there was a minimal push of westerly winds propagating down prior to the negative u winds associated with the SSW. Well, I think the models may have underestimated this, as can be seen from the ECM u wind forecast.  It appears that there is a greater push of westerlies into the trop. 

     

     

    Thank you for admitting there were westerly winds propagating down. Perhaps what childish of me, but it is important, not for me, but for understanding what's going on.

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    1 minute ago, Notty said:

    Please could you explain 🙂

    image.thumb.png.0288c2a65037d4b1d9796c78aa08b2ac.pngThe highs seems to maybe connect , which could bring iin a long fetch north easterly 

    Only if UKMO went out one more day

    This high flattening and all sorts everyones saying could end up good in the long run

    a SSW happening rn above us and weve just seen GFS change over to UKMO and ECM for +120 hrs, so theres always a chance we still see major swings

    One more point, is that like some mentioned earlier that westerly winds needs to be 'flushed' out even tho they are weak, Models could be reacting to that hence this output, 

    And those reversal winds come back straight after

    All part of the downwelling process i assume

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Well. Perhaps this was in the past so, but there seems to me enough vertical layers in e.g. EC-oper, to know what's going on. It's just a part of the atmosphere.

    Yes but the algorithms have relatively little training data on these events.  So in my opinion the jury's out with regards to the effects.  You could be right and ECM has it nailed but the models certainly did not in 2018 until sometime post event.  I'm not sure the underlying algorithms can have improved that much since then given the lack of events.  I think what is true that with the increased resolution in the vertical layers we will learn more from this event going forward which will improve modelling going forward.

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    2 hours ago, weathercold said:

    UKMO/ECM have led the the way here, never in doubt when both singing from the same page. 

    Not so sure ref UKMO, it is very much a short range model out to 144hrs. Weather predictions up to 120hrs are very accurate nowadays (except for a few notable very complicated scenarios like the present), and the UKMO 144 hrs this season have been very hit & miss.  

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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