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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    Just now, IDO said:

    The gfs goes full on zonal after d10 with a strong westerly flow. This does not tie in with what we have been told to expect so not sure what to make of it:

    anim_wze5.gif

    It must be confused by the SSW and chosen it's default seting 😉

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    19 minutes ago, John88B said:

    Serious question from a complete novice when it comes to reading the models but is it worth even looking at the models for a period of time if a SSW can shuffle the deck so much so to speak? Thanks in advance.

    Wouldn't ignore them. In Feb 2018, the GEFS nailed the Scandi High resulting from the SSW at T384! I recall counting it down from D16, 25 out of 26 consecutive runs had a mean Scandi High, and then I stopped counting because it was clearly going to happen 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, IDO said:

    The gfs goes full on zonal after d10 with a strong westerly flow. This does not tie in with what we have been told to expect so not sure what to make of it:

    anim_wze5.gif

    Throw a good wedge and see what happens?

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, IDO said:

    The gfs goes full on zonal after d10 with a strong westerly flow. This does not tie in with what we have been told to expect so not sure what to make of it:

    anim_wze5.gif

    The flow is still into Europe thou but it is very mobile 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, IDO said:

    The gfs goes full on zonal after d10 with a strong westerly flow. This does not tie in with what we have been told to expect so not sure what to make of it:

    anim_wze5.gif

    I know what to make of it. It’s clueless like the rest of us. Enjoy the week and watch the output with interest for a number of days I would suggest. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    3 minutes ago, IDO said:

    The gfs goes full on zonal after d10 with a strong westerly flow. This does not tie in with what we have been told to expect so not sure what to make of it:

    anim_wze5.gif

    Well. With the displacement of the stratospheric vortex to the Atlantic Ocean and the link between the stratosphere and troposphere (downwelling) in my opinion it's quite logical.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Wouldn't ignore them. In Feb 2018, the GEFS nailed the Scandi High resulting from the SSW at T384! I recall counting it down from D16, 25 out of 26 consecutive runs had a mean Scandi High, and then I stopped counting because it was clearly going to happen 🙂

    Excellent... I'm looking forward to T-258 on the para! 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    Excellent... I'm looking forward to T-258 on the para! 😉 

    We had the luck of a very strong MJO phase 6, 7, combined with a SSW, it's firework!

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    Posted
  • Location: worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: worcester

    Even in the great winter of ‘63 which was before my time ( I would like to add) there were warm ups and a thaw in between severe cold spells!!

    This pattern we find ourselves in currently and what the models are showing for the next 10/16 days is a much better situation to be in in comparison to the last 2 years!!

    Come on guys - there will be bumps in the road thru’ the rest of winter and the smaller they are the better!!

    Before anyone slates me for mentioning ‘63 I’m only using it as an example not saying it’s going to happen again!!

    Thanks 

    MNR

    Edited by mother nature rocks
    Wrong context entered
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    5 minutes ago, IDO said:

    The gfs goes full on zonal after d10 with a strong westerly flow. This does not tie in with what we have been told to expect so not sure what to make of it:

    anim_wze5.gif

    Hmm, zonal flow but would you call it full on and  strong?

    Compare it to this from 13th January last year 

    CFSR_1_2020011318_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_294_1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    Looks like the SSW isn’t having any favourable effect on the pressure patterns - leading to a positive NAO rather than a negative one at the moment! 👎

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Hmm, zonal flow but would you call it full on and  strong?

    Compare it to this from 13th January last year 

    CFSR_1_2020011318_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_294_1.png

     

    Of course, it won't happen, but three depressions in five days on a westerly flow is hardcore zonal, more flushing out of excess energy, but a nasty wet period in the unlikely event it happens:

    anim_mik4.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes ICON jumps the GFS ship...

    So close to something really good if the trough could have dropped through...

    Fair play you went against the grain and called what the ECM and UKMO are now showing. At least you still have your house 😂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    10 minutes ago, Notty said:

    It must be confused by the SSW and chosen it's default seting 😉

    There were zonal episodes in the run up to the Easterly in Feb 2018 BFTE,,,I think people just need to be patient and let things run their course,,,,,have a look at the charts for Feb 2018 very interesting how it all comes together 😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Fair play you went against the grain and called what the ECM and UKMO are now showing. At least you still have your house 😂 

    It is not against the grain to call ECMWF/UKMO over the GFS.

    Against the grain would be the opposite of that.

    This was just the usual GFS 24 hours behind.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Wouldn't ignore them. In Feb 2018, the GEFS nailed the Scandi High resulting from the SSW at T384! I recall counting it down from D16, 25 out of 26 consecutive runs had a mean Scandi High, and then I stopped counting because it was clearly going to happen 🙂

    The GFS / GEFS does have moments of brilliance perhaps this is overshadowed when it does a last minute switch behind all other models. Over years you notice it’s good at spotting pattern changes in FI often closer to time it will drop it, and then eventually go back to original solution. I think the model deserves some more respect it hasn’t done badly at all in recent weeks. I’ve been impressed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    3 minutes ago, Dibdabbers said:

    Well I'm excited. What a fascinating period of model watching ahead.  Anyone expecting any of the models having a handle on what's going on up above at the moment needs a stiff drink and a harsh word with themselves.  

    Nicely put.

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    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    It is not against the grain to call ECMWF/UKMO over the GFS.

    Against the grain would be the opposite of that.

    This was just the usual GFS 24 hours behind.

    Na, he was saying it before the ECM and UKMO downgrade. Also when the gfs 18z was showing a boom run.

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    8 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Well. With the displacement of the stratospheric vortex to the Atlantic Ocean and the link between the stratosphere and troposphere (downwelling) in my opinion it's quite logical.

    Yesterday some knowledgeable posters noted that the westward progression of depressions was showing signs of stalling.  This was also attributed to the link between the stratosphere and troposphere.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    7 minutes ago, Tony47 said:

    I have to pick upon the comment re the 1962/63 winter. I lived in Birmingham aged 15 then and kept the Met Office recordings from their official Egbaston observatory. The highest temperature between Dec 22nd and March 1st was 4 degrees Celcius. The snow that fell on Boxing day was still there at the beginning of March. It truly was a classic.

    I have the Met O  Daily Weather Reports from winter 1963 and the amount of snow that fell Birmingham Airport was remarkable and Edgbaston is a lot higher up and so snowier, although the second half of February was quiet in comparison to January it must have been a great winter.

    Andy

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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