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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Just for fun para actually cold at 192

    gfsnh-1-192 (1).png

    gfsnh-1-198 (1).png

    The trendsetter....😉

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Chiltern
  • Location: Chiltern
    Just now, Scott Ingham said:

    Whikever our atmosohere is in this sort of state with northern blocking and an upcoming ssw on the way we will always stay in the game for something memorable.

    We still have to hope pieces of the jigsaw land in the correct holes

    Its 2 weeks will he 3 weeks below average next week with a ssw to come so its aoready been a noteworthy winter comoared to some of the dross weve had

    Cheers. Yes, but nothing compared to some winters. We have had about 3 frosts here do far. Considerable talk about top 2 or 3 for some time. I was always worried. 

    Interesting to see how the SSW plays out. I'm not suprised at all that the GFS has backtracked. It seems to happen year after year. Fingers crossed for upgrades.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

    The trendsetter....😉

    Has to be doing something with all that extra resolution? 🤔 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    11 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Probably nothing, might be only a delay but GFSP says hold on a minute at 180

    gfsnh-1-180.png

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

    It could be just that. We cant turn flat westerly that is for sure with nothing to fire the jet up due to zonal winds being reversed. My thinking is a pause due to an ill placed shortwave near Greenland

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    3 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

    Cheers. Yes, but nothing compared to some winters. We have had about 3 frosts here do far. Considerable talk about top 2 or 3 for some time. I was always worried. 

    Interesting to see how the SSW plays out. I'm not suprised at all that the GFS has backtracked. It seems to happen year after year. Fingers crossed for upgrades.

     

     

     

    Yeah for the South. Less so in my part of the world but for length of time below average its certainly been an interesting winter with more to come from the ssw

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The gfs control and mean have all seemingly had the eureka moment and it looks a done deal for the ridge to topple to some degree:

    gens-0-1-150.thumb.png.84f134bbe2d283188f4b21c1a268b611.pnggens-31-1-150.thumb.png.4e7b37f020ed48ca54635186d559ce5c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes, I don’t think much has actually changed, in terms of the state of the atmosphere at all levels on the cusp of the technical SSW, or in terms of prospects.  QTR of 4 days always a bit optimistic, if indeed anyone was liking the GFS 18z, 0z, 6z solutions directly to the SSW.

    There a times when I feel a running commentary on all the major model runs can add something, and times when not, this is probably one of the latter.  In a few days time, the models will have adjusted to the reality of the position post SSW in all layers of the atmosphere, not just to their imperfect model of it, and we will see the way forward.  I’d reckon the next cold spell start in about 2.5 weeks, say 20th January.  

    Couldnt agree more. Its best just to sit back and watch it all unfold

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    If you’re not going to get the low south at day 6 you might aswell have that even further north keeping the high further north aswell supported by low heights over Southern Europe . That way the UK can stay in colder conditions.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    A bit of advice to those frustrated and with model fatigue. Go out and enjoy (if restrictions allow) the cold weathered take a break from model watching for a couple of days. Come back and things will look a whole heap brighter. I do this every year and it is truly worth it, trust me!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Para sniffs out the SSW and possible down dwelling, wasn't what I expected to see so quickly?

    Yes we're on we warm Atlantic side but look east... 

     

     

    gfsnh-0-246.png

    gfsnh-1-246.png

    Edit: and before anyone comments this is for fun, I'm not expecting this Friday to verify as modelled let alone anything after... 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    A bit of advice to those frustrated and with model fatigue. Go out and enjoy (if restrictions allow) the cold weathered take a break from model watching for a couple of days. Come back and things will look a whole heap brighter. I do this every year and it is truly worth it, trust me!

    Except last year 😬

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

    People are looking too far ahead and missing Friday's potentially snowy front coming down from the north west.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    Para sniffs out the SSW and possible down dwelling, wasn't what I expected to see so quickly?

    Yes we're on we warm Atlantic side but look east... 

     

     

    gfsnh-0-246.png

    gfsnh-1-246.png

    Yes the signs are there we saw it on last nights GFS run. High pressure will break out from nowhere very quickly. I'm not taking anything after 5 days for granted at all.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    For giggles para would boom at 258...

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    BFTE anyone?

    image.thumb.png.3298e2cf0966aeb8948923d10261ddc5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    GEM would appear to be a milder outlier (latter stages) but a possibility:

    anim_ygf8.gif

    Difficult to know where we go post d6 now that we have lost the potential pattern? All in FI so subject to change and no doubt the experts will advise on how long it will take for the SSWE impacts to imprint on the trop?

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp could get interesting...

    DD575160-07DD-4A85-9770-F6FAF8416F03.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Well GFS now going the same as ECM past 144 hrs,as I said in my blog all about high pressure 

    to our west / northwest .Both going for a low pressure dominated Atlantic with westerlies.

    That would be the form horse to follow except for one major fly in the ointment SSW.

    I believe still changes after 144hrs but reversal winds due to SSW depending on how

    quick that evolves will alter the charts to a great degree exiting times ahead believe me.

     

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    Just now, Alexis said:

    People are looking too far ahead and missing Friday's potentially snowy front coming down from the north west.

    I live in one of the most snowless parts of the UK so would be a welcome change if Fridays event comes to fruition. Not really looking past this week until the SSW finishes it's work. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    27 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    At +216h and GFS is re-amplifying. We are not going flat, the Atlantic is not winning. See how all the purples are far from Greenland?

    GFS-216 3jan12.png

    Not exactly 'Warming up' at any time either!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The gfs goes full on zonal after d10 with a strong westerly flow. This does not tie in with what we have been told to expect so not sure what to make of it:

    anim_wze5.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    19 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

    During a major SSW you could expect to see high pressure breaking out from nowhere. I see no SSW influence on tonight's run. Given downwelling looks fast and sooner than originally thought I would expect to see signs in the next couple of days on the models. Things will soon look complete different I'm 100% sure of that. Enjoy next weeks cold for me it's just the starter before the main course and then deserts after. 

    Is that comment based on a hunch or evidence 🤔

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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