Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

It’s like no one has ever gone through a SSW event before.

all this chopping and changing. Things can change at short notice. Agreement or not. It’s happened before, it can happen again.

Saying it’s game over is nonsense. 
It’s a waiting game - more things point in our favour than don’t.

I still haven’t seen snow from this “cold spell” I’m in Essex.. quite a few here I’m sure are lucky enough to of seen snow or had several days of it.

it’s only January 3rd. A lot can happen from now. A lot more chopping and changing,

it’s always a rough ride when a SSW event occurs. 
 

wouldn’t surprise me if tomorrow or even GFS18z flips again. 
 

hope is not lost.

yes , i'll give it another 48 hours before I lose hope, - each chart is so vastly different , there are so many potentials.

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO retains a much colder feed at 144.

Europe certainly isn’t warm.

 

oh wait that’s 00z... so expect colder  

Edited January 3, 2021 by Daniel*

[Gowon]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well, we were told by some that the one thing that won’t be happening is any Atlantic influence - hmmmmm!

Things may change, but it’s looking like a below average first half of January - but nothing exceptional like we were led to believe by some.

The weather is a great leveller to those who make bold claims, no matter how good the signals look!

Onwards and upwards!

 

 

It's best we wait until all the runs come out first?

No disrespect, but more fool you if you've been led to believe?

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Btw i actually think this 12z could end up being a) a cracker for cold, but b) more importantly, the correct solution although possibly a little early, watch that shortwave and the ridge behind it about to build into Greenland.

Yes, i know Nick Sussex will probably be critical of me relying on the track of a shortwave at D7+ but  i think we could have just stumbled on the correct scenario.

Potentially the start yes mate but i am honestly not looking past 120 hours.

Anything goes at anytime pre ssw.

It wouldnt surprise me if the ECM threw out another solution tonight

[cheshire snow]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

We all know what happens in this situation, ECM jumps to a cold set up and we are still left scratching our heads!!
 

GFS is still pretty good, maybe get a block developing again 

Yes just got a feeling ECM will show something different tonight just to confuse things further could end up with GFS /ECM v UKMO/Icon

C.S

[Griff]

Probably nothing, might be only a delay but GFSP says hold on a minute at 180

Edited January 3, 2021 by Griff

[Matt H]

Afternoon everyone, I have refrained from posting recently as the pattern coming up certainly looks complicated and I haven’t felt that I could add much value to the conversation on top of some of the brilliant posts recently due to my lack of experience still.

It’s perfectly justified that some people may be disappointed with the current model output, and I also wish that things hadn’t trended in the direction that we seem to be going down at the moment with the ridge collapsing over the top of the UK. However, there’s no point being despondent, we just have to brush ourselves down and look for the next opportunity and I don’t think that’ll be too far away and we just have to wait for the models to get to grips with how to respond to the SSW. 

I probably won’t comment much until things look genuinely more positive again as I am busy with uni work, but I have loved reading everyone’s contributions and I hope that the models look better again soon.

[Snowman.]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Btw i actually think this 12z could end up being a) a cracker for cold, but b) more importantly, the correct solution although possibly a little early, watch that shortwave and the ridge behind it about to build into Greenland.

Yes, i know Nick Sussex will probably be critical of me relying on the track of a shortwave at D7+ but  i think we could have just stumbled on the correct scenario.

There was attempt at a wedge, if we can build on the attempt and get a decent little wedge who knows what could happen.

[Penicuikblizzard]

35 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just too clarify, I know we have an easterly, of sorts during the days ahead but it’s lame / toothless compared to the last time we had a ssw in that famous March not many years ago..perspective / proportion and all that!

It’s also raining in the current Easterly and to be honest looking at the charts with the upper temps vs the SSTs in the North Sea it’s going to continue to be a high ground event 

[snowblizzard]

Problem being, if or when the normal Atlantic influence regains control it normally lasts for weeks on end!

Hopefully, SSW events might help prevent that happening?

Edited January 3, 2021 by snowblizzard

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

yes , i'll give it another 48 hours before I lose hope, - each chart is so vastly different , there are so many potentials.

Exactly.

I’ve spoken to a MetO person and they even won’t call it yet, and they have a more better model at their disposal. Who knows what that says.

models do this when a SSW occurs. That’s the east part.

what happens next for US is the big ??? - NO one can call it, models will keep throwing up scenarios. 
agreement doesn’t mean “done deal” in this case.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

It's best we wait until all the runs come out first?

No disrespect, but more fool you if you've been led to believe?

Oh I never was. But my point is lots of people do, and it’s a bit unfair to people who are new to model watching and trying to learn.

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I dont think we will turn mild. Its looking more like a reshuffling of the deck due to the Southern Greenland shortwave. We know obviously we are forecast to stay cold after this so just a relaxation and go again towards the end end of the month when we will get a better imprint from the strat. O still feel we will get snowy surprises from a low in this period

What are chances of seeing something memorable like you mentioned a few weeks back? Are we looking to back of Jan now?

Have the effects  of the SSW been factored in yet? 

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Not too sure we should over worry beyond the Atlantic ridging just out west which seems in general agreement with the UKMO byT144hrs.I am sure there's more to come with the upstream adjustments.

The main thing is this is not the usual high being flattened by a rampant northern jet.Low pressure is retained to the south and on this we are still in the colder air.

Looking a the Polar pattern we can see the main part of the pv moving across towards the Siberian side so we would expect some,hopefully,temporary flattening of the Atlantic flow.

Best level headed post of the day.

Changes and pathways to different scenarios have only just started.

Its fascinating ive loved the modelling today from a scientists and weather lovers perspective

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Potentially the start yes mate but i am honestly not looking past 120 hours.

Anything goes at anytime pre ssw.

It wouldnt surprise me if the ECM threw out another solution tonight

Very true. Sit back, keep breathing and watch what happens these days.

We are seeing many solutions and swings, as expected, even some that seem to temporary bring Westerly influences to our parts, but what we are not seeing is truly flat solutions, with that purple wheel over Greenland and a stubborn High over France and Central Europe.

[Cleeve Hill]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Europe certainly isn’t warm.

If the Atlantic high can stay put then it is only northern Scotland that sees a westerly flow. The rest of us will under calm conditions and hopefully some winter sun and frosty nights. 
That’s ok in my book for now. 

[AWD]

Looked at this chart and thought "bog standard temps, bog standard weather" at the surface;

But then went into the UK MAX 2m temperature charts for a similar period in time;

and as you can see, surprisingly chilly at the surface still, especially considering these are MAX temps too. Only really warming up beyond 200 hours.

Just an observation on what the 12z GFS Op shows, not a forecast or anything. 

 

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Exactly.

I’ve spoken to a MetO person and they even won’t call it yet, and they have a more better model at their disposal. Who knows what that says.

models do this when a SSW occurs. That’s the east part.

what happens next for US is the big ??? - NO one can call it, models will keep throwing up scenarios. 
agreement doesn’t mean “done deal” in this case.

And 96z is a long time in weather forecasting

[Griff]

Just for fun para actually colder at 192

Edited January 3, 2021 by Griff

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

What are chances of seeing something memorable like you mentioned a few weeks back? Are we looking to back of Jan now?

Have the effects  of the SSW been factored in yet? 

Whikever our atmosohere is in this sort of state with northern blocking and an upcoming ssw on the way we will always stay in the game for something memorable.

We still have to hope pieces of the jigsaw land in the correct holes

Its 2 weeks will he 3 weeks below average next week with a ssw to come so its aoready been a noteworthy winter comoared to some of the dross weve had

[phil nw.]

Come on guys,keep it friendly,no criticising others.Keep it to the outputs and avoid personal stuff please.

Any problem with a post do not reply just report and we can look at it.

Ta.

[John88B]

Serious question from a complete novice when it comes to reading the models but is it worth even looking at the models for a period of time if a SSW can shuffle the deck so much so to speak? Thanks in advance.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Very true. Sit back, keep breathing and watch what happens these days.

We are seeing many solutions and swings, as expected, even some that seem to temporary bring Westerly influences to our parts, but what we are not seeing is truly flat solutions, with that purple wheel over Greenland and a stubborn High over France and Central Europe.

Yeah of course. Stay humble let mother nature do what it wants to do and enjoy the journey along the way.

Its a novel this winter and i honestly wouldnt he surprised at another flip to something else different

[DanDorsetUK]

During a major SSW you could expect to see high pressure breaking out from nowhere. I see no SSW influence on tonight's run. Given downwelling looks fast and sooner than originally thought I would expect to see signs in the next couple of days on the models. Things will soon look complete different I'm 100% sure of that. Enjoy next weeks cold for me it's just the starter before the main course and then deserts after. 

[Griff]

So in FI para goes for increased amplification to the north although we drift under milder Atlantic influence...