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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Didn't the GFS stick to it's guns on predicting the current cold spell when UKMO and ECM were having none of it. Then they both slowly crawled back over to match the GFS, before the GFS then had a bit of a wobble.

    Not saying the GFS is right, but over the past few weeks its got more respectability than the UKMO and ECM imo.

    Gfs was right over ecm for a few runs in the 8/10 day period

    b6 the time Ukmo appeared the evolution was assured 

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    A seasonal absentee by-stander in all this - but a one-off offering from me. Its a pity that this post is getting taken apart in some quarters, because hypothetically it *could* promote some inte

    LOL, the only time I tend to interact with SL is to offer a different point of view, so I definitely would not report on his thoughts. Jeez he was still at school when I was monitoring the strat. 

    Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such wea

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    I hope its right!!!

    But I'm convinced it won't be ...

    We will see by 12zs ...

    I bet. Hope you didn’t have that bet or you’re going to need to find a new house.🤣🤣🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    better than 00Z! but expect the GFS 12Z to fall in line with other 2

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its going to be very wrong.

    Feel free to quote me in about 6 hours time...

     

    Your braver than me but one of us will be! Hahaha! 

    The GFS has always been better than the euros in the states. We had the same 2 weeks ago GFS on its own and it turned out correct.

    Fascinating if not stressful all the same!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    2 minutes ago, WorldExplore said:

    Big differences between the GFS's & UKMO/ECM.

    Todays 12Z's model watch just trended behind the sofa 🛋👀🔍

    For sure! I'll be back this afternoon - better than the next installation of Peaky Blinders (well...maybe not....but pretty close!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    GFSP is flattening the high as well..

    P.thumb.png.eb74741d734405d06343c842b6454f8d.png

    So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    12z we will all have to wait we need cross model agreement, at least GFS has given us hope.😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    GFSP is flattening the high as well..

    P.thumb.png.eb74741d734405d06343c842b6454f8d.png

    So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

    Thats more of a worry for sure.

    Looks a middle ground.

    Doesnt topple the high anywhere near as quick as the ECM/UKMO

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    The million dollar question is are you concerned the current swing to more westerly regime has calculated the much anticipated SSW? or have we got the prospects of a possible SSW yet to be shown to come?🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    So at 240, the GFS is seeing a renewed push of heights into Greenland.

    image.thumb.png.f5c8a60a18efce12c083bfd766506f5d.png

    A very cold run this. 

    However, can it really be right against the UKMO and ECM at relatively short range?  I doubt it, but will return at 3.30pm to find out.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Can we see an 18z GFSp redux ? See bottom image for the holy grail...

    55A1D0D6-20C2-4494-9B9A-7591EBADF037.png

    1DB6D2D0-6CA5-4B1D-9F8C-34D167100E03.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Well it wouldn't be a UK winter without the tense drama would it?

    Control and mean, give some further hope

    I think the para gives us some hope at least up till 144 too. Let's see what the 12z bring. The choas above can cause changes even in the normal reliable 96-120

     

    gensnh-0-1-126.png

    gensnh-31-1-126.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

    The million dollar question is are you concerned the current swing to more westerly regime has calculated the much anticipated SSW? or have we got the prospects of a possible SSW yet to be shown to come?🤔

    Or...has the GFS calculated it but the others are yet to catch on 🤷🏻‍♂️ Tune in for the next 5 days to .....still be none the wiser 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

    Are people serious right now?

    when realistically have we had a decent 00z? Models are all going to go over the place regardless if some are “better at handling different situations better than the other” some may agree with each other and you may get one model out on its own. 
    could it be wrong? Yes. Could it be right? Yes.

    we will see,

    but people claiming this is over just need to relax. This “flattening” of the pattern doesn’t happen until FI.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    So at 240, the GFS is seeing a renewed push of heights into Greenland.

    image.thumb.png.f5c8a60a18efce12c083bfd766506f5d.png

    A very cold run this. 

    However, can it really be right against the UKMO and ECM at relatively short range?  I doubt it, but will return at 3.30pm to find out.

    It can only be right in this scenario. Greenland heights and american macroscale patterns. Its notoriously good with these patterns

    Middle of december ecm and ukmo came on board 96 hours to the Greenland high

    See you all at 3! 

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    At least for my location and according to the ensembles, ECMWF 0Z is a massive warm outlier..

    I too,don't trust GFS and ECM-UKMO together seem a very strong indication but let's wait...

    Edited by topo
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Discussing +240h when FI is not even +120h?

    Let the SSW happen and have a little rest. Seems there's a big hangover after that 18z.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I’m going to take the advice experienced members gave me yesterday and take anything beyond day 5 with a pinch of salt. We can’t even settle in what is going to happen in 4 days time (on Thursday) with that trough heading (or not heading) south. Here is the GFS and ECM snow depth for the end of the week...tough times to be a snow plow contingency planner...

    F7A6DD40-16B2-416A-877A-592D09E27024.gif

    7E568E9A-B2FA-45AB-B8FD-C3E41B2FABFA.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    GFSP is flattening the high as well..

    P.thumb.png.eb74741d734405d06343c842b6454f8d.png

    So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

    I would be more inclined to say middle ground solution and still possibility that heights around Iceland and Russia could come together and build an easterly.

    ECH1-192.gif

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

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    Fear not good people it will be back to narnia tonight with all toys picked up and ready to be ejected in the morning. Even though I live in the least most likely place to get snow, I'm still optimistic we may see something white this year. As I have seen things can change a lot in 3 days let alone 10. Happy model watching and keep the faith. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    It can only be right in this scenario. Greenland heights and american macroscale patterns. Its notoriously good with these patterns

    Middle of december ecm and ukmo came on board 96 hours to the Greenland high

    See you all at 3! 

    GFSP playing devil's advocate 

    gfsnh-0-228 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    The million dollar question is are you concerned the current swing to more westerly regime has calculated the much anticipated SSW? or have we got the prospects of a possible SSW yet to be shown to come?🤔

    image.thumb.png.9d84177ec4f9c29a33829c6e30ffbcff.png
     

    the atmosphere is already reversed above 20hpa at the pole and as far south as 40N at 3hpa. So no model is blind to the reversal - it’s already in starting data 

    the issue can only be that a particular model is struggling to resolve how that affects the strat below and into the trop. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    GFSP is flattening the high as well..

    P.thumb.png.eb74741d734405d06343c842b6454f8d.png

    So that's; ECM, UKMO & GFSP all against the idea of a resurgence in blocking... 

    At t180 it's a triumph not a defeat, the problems occur much earlier, in the strength of the Greenland ridging and the movement of and depth of the Pacific low, 

    Anything after t144 is pure fantasy 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
    12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Your braver than me but one of us will be! Hahaha! 

    The GFS has always been better than the euros in the states. We had the same 2 weeks ago GFS on its own and it turned out correct.

    Fascinating if not stressful all the same!

    That's strange, because Nick Sussex used to regularly post discussions from US weather pros, which mostly consisted of ignoring the GFS and going with either ECM UKMO or a blend of the 2.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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