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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


bluearmy
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 hours ago, Griff said:

Your money is on Greenland high? 

gfsnh-0-228.png

Sorry Griff been working. On the 6z yes  just the Heighths to the south stopping the cold getting in. Longterm I'd be going easterly

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

You shouldn't be expecting cold until the last third of the month anyway. The UKMO only goes out to mid month.

Ukmo is for me like icon. Nice to look at but that’s it... at least for me 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Much better shaped Arctic high on the 12z, allowing the tPV flow to feed to our NW, and that should allow lows to ride the trough rather than crash through eastwards:

12z>gfsnh-0-138.thumb.png.f8cb7e963550a823706f66810d5848df.png

06z>gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.5db176632fe7fd2c842d6a6a84092327.png

Not sure it is game changing, just topping up the cold pool over the UK with another transient Northerly? Doubt it will lead to the ICON SW'ly flow but similar outcomes around d8 I would think?

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I do get the feeling that if we get anything cold (and it's still a big if, despite what some would have you believe), it will crop up at fairly short range i.e 144 / 168. Looking deep into FI is rather futile and bad for your health!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Big swing to amplication in early to mid part of this gfs from this morning.

the green 0 welsh and English was on the German polish border this morning.. 700 miles or so direct guess.

it does look like flattering for next part of run.. but that really is tangible shift... same again please this evening GFS. ta

image.thumb.png.b927edefce3989854987856f52ed456a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
16 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it is. The situation is evolving Mucka be it small increments. Time will tell but bringing in a ene flow wouldn't be a long drawn out job imo

 

The models have been indecisive in handling this trough dropping down from Greenland throughout. We have seen everything from it dropping into NW Europe to pushing NE out toward Scandi with GFS and UKMO at both those extremes and as usual we are getting the synoptic soup in the middle ground with upstream ebbs and flows. UKMO was 75% right though

I'm not so optimistic about a rapid return to cold from the NE as you though that possibility has been there within ensemble guidance albeit an outsider. Originally I had that programmed for around mid month.

I did believe we would see the pattern reamplify quicker than the models initially showed though once they went with the flatter pattern and that we could have a very cold last 1/3rd of the month with deep Scandi trough drawing in very cold NE winds with the real concern being whether his pattern would set up far enough West to turn Atlantic incursions at the boundary line to snow for us.

GFS 12z  is currently showing a clean amplification and toppler which would actually be a detriment to this pattern setting up but I don't think it will go down that way - not unless we are very unlucky (and we are never unlucky with Winter patterns, right?)

gfsnh-0-174.png?12

I think either that signal will strengthen and it won't be a toppler (your quick route to cold) or what I think is favourite, a more protracted and convoluted move toward Atlantic blocking and cold for last 1/3rd of month

All options are open though including Atlantic driven weather so place your bets.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, TSNWK said:

Big swing to amplication in early to mid part of this gfs from this morning.

the green 0 welsh and English was on the German polish border this morning.. 700 miles or so direct guess.

it does look like flattering for next part of run.. but that really is tangible shift... same again please this evening GFS. ta

image.thumb.png.b927edefce3989854987856f52ed456a.png

Might be improving slowly... Para

gfsnh-0-132.png

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

All options are open though including Atlantic driven weather so place your bets.

5€ on east (floor current) in 2nd to 3rd decade due west russian low with driving high to the north, with some interludes of high-over-low patterns (inversion)

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Some good earlier trends for increased amplification coming from the GFS/GFS Para and to a lesser extent the UKMO. However, if we're going to achieve anything from it, we really need that pesky Azores/Iberian high to shove off. 

To those more knowledgeable than me - what essentially needs to happen for the Azores high to move away into a more favourable position? 

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
5 minutes ago, danm said:

Some good earlier trends for increased amplification coming from the GFS/GFS Para and to a lesser extent the UKMO. However, if we're going to achieve anything from it, we really need that pesky Azores/Iberian high to shove off. 

To those more knowledgeable than me - what essentially needs to happen for the Azores high to move away into a more favourable position? 

Completely unknown sadly. If someone blew up the planet tomorrow, all that would be left would be some space rubble and the Azures high!!

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GEM with a nice wedge at 216 bit on its own though with this.

 

 

gemnh-0-216.png

Mid range chart of 2021 for me.... go on ECM I dare ya  more realistically maybe would be seeing some members of GFS ensemble gang supporting..

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The latest GFS run holds back any incursion of the milder air now Wednesday next week. Keeps getting pushed back with each run. ICON and UKMO  not showing the same amplification , hence milder flow into much of the British Isles by same date. Is GFS now showing some consistency in its runs and the trendsetter ?  All to play for even in the shorter time span.

 C

GFSOPUK12_144_2.png

I don’t think we will See any return to mild anytime soon and if we do it will be VERY short lived 3 days or so at most.

 

Doesn’t look mild to me, temps at the surface will be cool to cold and beyond day 7 its a mess, but there are some very cold uppers starting to show up so ....

0A191E75-CBD2-44AF-997B-E5FBA29A4C46.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GEM with a nice wedge at 216 bit on its own though with this.

 

 

gemnh-0-216.png

Creates the cut off high quite early too.

image.thumb.png.8a845b5f7a1a5999874c9a825dd6a50e.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

The regular GFS seems to be getting consistent at showing a raging vortex in FI. Not very encouraging!

spacer.png

Edited by Johnp
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