Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[fromey]

BFTE feb 13th -23feb charts at  3days apart 

[ALL ABOARD]

6 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Just had a look at 10 days away in 2018.

Actual:

GFS:

ECM:

 

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

the eps was progressive with the pattern and probably a few days ahead rather than behind! 

GFS again much closer... 

2-0 on SSW so far... 

[Froze were the Days]

6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

TEITS would also go on about this. Always say that OPs lead the way and ensembles would follow.

True on 'breakdowns' from blocked conditions to more mobile ones as well...

[bluearmy]

Just now, CreweCold said:

That was hardly a pop up E'ly though Nick...it was signposted for weeks

Weeks ?  It was an ssw consequence wasn’t it ?   Post warming the gfs was playing with big fi amplification (which is happening to an extent now) but the scandi ridge and BFTE became favoured as we got towards the 10th 

But I take your point. - it wasn’t a pop up feature ......how many t8mes have we seen a pop up Easterly ??

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Not in 2013 nick according to snowmans brilliant post above. 

Anyone want to do a 2018 ten day and 5 day? 

 

There are always exceptions. Most easterlies in the UK aren’t that turbo charged one. 

I often remember the panic in here because the ensembles aren’t jumping with the op .

 

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can't 100% vouch for that but no reason to disbelieve you, but what you will nearly always see when an Easterly does verify, is at least a few members even in the 336-384 range, i would go as far as to say if on the GEFS, it gets to 240 and less than 5 are showing it, forget it, and once you get to 192, if its going to be a potent Easterly you need a majority cluster outright flatlining around -10 or below, by majority i mean 51%, not a small cluster with loads of other even smaller ones, also the Easterlies that ticked down like clockwork (2018 an example), were showing an Easterly on both the eps and GEFS mean at around 240, not necessarily every single run of every single day but enough to suggest evidence was overwhelming. The only one i remember being a bit flaky was the Ian Brown 2013 moment, but there were still plenty of individual members showing it, plus that was not really what i class as a rip roaring E'ly, more battleground setups that.

Bit of egg on my face ... just checked 2013 and oops ... the ECM mean had a westerly at D10 my memory not as good as I thought.

but you can see the mean was sniffing in towards a Scandi High in the days after.

Think I'm right that the ECM mean settled on this particular easterly right now quite early on?

I guess the ECM mean today has been sniffing a north Atlantic high at D10. It overwhelming gets sniffed out in the days that follow. But look at 2013 archieves and yes, it gives hope to any modelled outcome at mid-range for a turnaround

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Weeks ?  It was an ssw consequence wasn’t it ?   Post warming the gfs was playing with big fi amplification (which is happening to an extent now) but the scandi ridge and BFTE became favoured as we got towards the 10th 

But I take your point. - it wasn’t a pop up feature ......how many t8mes have we seen a pop up Easterly ??

We saw what was coming about 2 weeks out.

Been a while since we saw a true pop up E'ly but I remember an instance a few years back now when we went into a tame one at short notice (approx 120 hrs out I think) Ensemble suite just flipped from SW'y to tame E'ly in the space of a run.

[MOF]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

To a degree - basically big NH amplification (which has shown on extended ops today).  Dont be surprised to see it different tomorrow morning and then to re surface within a couple runs ...

Standard model watching then

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of egg on my face ... just checked 2013 and oops ... the ECM mean had a westerly at D10 my memory not as good as I thought.

but you can see the mean was sniffing in towards a Scandi High in the days after.

Think I'm right that the ECM mean settled on this particular easterly right now quite early on?

I guess the ECM mean today has been sniffing a north Atlantic high at D10. It overwhelming gets sniffed out in the days that follow. But look at 2013 archieves and yes, it gives hope to any modelled outcome at mid-range for a turnaround

Maybe the ECM isn't great at modelling post SSW.. 

Obv there are exceptions to the rule but two operational at day ten that the GFS has modelled better.. 

[Kasim Awan]

GFS18Z makes more of Thursday's feature.

[Radiating Dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

True on 'breakdowns' from blocked conditions to more mobile ones as well...

Given the lower resolution, surely the ops are ahead of the game in all situations?

 

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of egg on my face ... just checked 2013 and oops ... the ECM mean had a westerly at D10 my memory not as good as I thought.

but you can see the mean was sniffing in towards a Scandi High in the days after.

Think I'm right that the ECM mean settled on this particular easterly right now quite early on?

I guess the ECM mean today has been sniffing a north Atlantic high at D10. It overwhelming gets sniffed out in the days that follow. But look at 2013 archieves and yes, it gives hope to any modelled outcome at mid-range for a turnaround

2013 was such an oddity, the models just suddenly started building a small wedge of heights north then any atlantic lows just came to a crawling hault.

I remember the UKMO doing well in the second part of it, GFS doing well in the first. 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Maybe the ECM isn't great at modelling post SSW.. 

Obv there are exceptions to the rule but two operational at day ten that the GFS has modelled better.. 

  
 

  
 

my chart was the eps mean - the actual ops day 9/10 reveals gfs wasn’t better ..... but it means nothing of course .....

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Snowman. said:

2013 was such an oddity, the models just suddenly started building a small wedge of heights north then any atlantic lows just came to a crawling hault.

I remember the UKMO doing well in the second part of it, GFS doing well in the first. 

As you know the shift happens as the effects of the SSW are processed by model. This is often quick as is the downwelling and due to the fast paced nature of the first wave of tropospheric impacts.

[chionomaniac]

Early signs on this run. Block is collapsing Less. I just wonder how much these early changes can influence the latter stages....

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Early signs on this run. Block is collapsing Less. I just wonder how much these early changes can influence the latter stages....

Not sure if it's my imagination, but the lows coming off the ESB seem to be getting weaker on each run. Not sure if that affects anything?

Edited January 5, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Griff]

Early doors gfs vs gfsp at 90...

 

[Pembroke Dangler]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Not sure if it's my imagination, but the lows coming off the ESB seem to be getting weaker on each run. Not sure if that affects anything?

Could probably do with them being stronger and digging further south off the eastern seaboard so it would help drive warm air advection up into Greenland to block the Atlantic altogether. 

[Griff]

Differences evident over towards greenland early on regarding amplification gfs vs para... 102

[Battleground Snow]

Definitely an improvement by 180 compared to the 12z

 

[Kasim Awan]

Improvement on the GFS 12Z. Solid move towards EC op. Lets see how this looks by 240h.

[chionomaniac]

It’s the distinct Faroe island high pressure that is catching my eye

[Kasim Awan]

Azores again is to an extent limiting the -NAO - so common since the 90s.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Griff]

Really obvious para by 144

[Ice Day]

ECM 192 v GFS 186

  

Things could be about to get interesting again!?