Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Valleyboy]

16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM looks like a SSW response? Sudden reduction in North Atlantic zonal component?

This is the evolution I would expect, my only concern is any knock on effect if the USA goes into the freezer, which could power up the Atlantic.  I guess the SSW would counter that.

[XtremeUKWeather]

1 hour ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

Yes i know i shouldn't be comparing to 2018 but i noticed these similarities , with some differences in the NH profile , but i wanted to point out the high pushing north from UK on GFS para today

This may be useless, what do you guys think?

I thought something was similar 

ECM has it similar but this time actually shoots the high up 

only searching for patterns right now and keep expectations low

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

That day 10 from 12z EC has Beast From The East potential written all over it days 11 onwards, pity it's day 10 ...

Have no fear when you see a ridge build north over western Europe, when there's deep cold vortex dropping SE over Scandi/eastern Europe and trough stalling out west in the Atlantic, it's the classic empirical route to a Scandi high.

That’s the way to do it , pressure rise from the south trough the UK into scandi. Feels much more comfortable watching it go that way and as you say a classic way to get a stonking BFTE.

[snow mad]

4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

This current cold spell really is quite impressive - certainly from a below average temperatures point of view.

Still plenty of cold days/nights ahead right through to Sunday.

Few UKV predicted temperature snapshots:

Wednesday 03:00 - tiny shades of purple showing there...-14c possible in the North West Highlands. 

 

Thursday 03:00

 

Friday 03:00

 

Saturday 03:00

 

Sunday 03:00

 

Our lowest temperature of Winter so far was -10.2c in Dalwhinnie.

That could be smashed overnight with a -12c to -14c up in the North West Highlands - one to keep an eye on. 

We’ve had one frost and rain all day. Glad someone is experiencing some cold! Hopefully our turn will come with the later stages of ecm showing some promising signs of the ssw imprinting on the troposphere.

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You couldn't make it up, genuine frigid air, blizzards practically as far as the deep South of America while air approaching -32 (way colder than the North pole about to go over the great lakes of Northern USA.

You couldnt make it up, your talking about one GFS run for the 21st January, I'm not sure it's even record breaking, usually gets that cold at this time of year in any case.

Meanwhile, yes it looks like things will turn slightly milder but there is hints this may not last too long, hopefully like many the effects of a SSW will make its presence felt in the outputs.

[Chesil View]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

That day 10 from 12z EC has Beast From The East potential written all over it days 11 onwards, pity it's day 10 ...

Have no fear when you see a ridge build north over western Europe, when there's deep cold vortex dropping SE over Scandi/eastern Europe and trough stalling out west in the Atlantic, it's the classic empirical route to a Scandi high.

This was pretty good example Nick

[Jason H]

Don't be suckered in again..... Nirvana is still 10+ days away. Joking aside. Excellent input again tonight from several posters.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That’s the way to do it ...

Whoever said this thread was like a Punch & Judy show!?

[Mark Parsons]

24 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Well the latest ECM is no surprise to me high pressure pushing north and looking like the

first glimpse of SSW that every body has been waiting for.Icon 180 hrs chart was giving the 

first insight let’s see what materialises,most had chucked their hats into the ring time to put it 

back on.

We may only end up with high pressure and we know what that means for Greece haha......

[Mark Parsons]

57 minutes ago, Jason H said:

Don't be suckered in again..... Nirvana is still 10+ days away. Joking aside. Excellent input again tonight from several posters.

Time and time again tasty synoptics that are mouth watering crop up and nearly always get watered down nearer the time, surely there are lessons to be learnt from this trend within the computer models just the same as global weather patterns follow trends........if we see -20 850 uppers 10 days out we end up with -10 uppers and so on! Sorry to scupper the excitement, however having a realistic view with an open mind is much easier in my opinion.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Mark Parsons

[Anthony Burden]

20 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

But the ssw reaction wouldn’t yet be showing in the models. It’s going to take at least 14 days or so to show

I’m afraid that is not correct it is entirely possible to have a very quick response,met office has some

good information on SSW.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Summerstorm said:

Yep that'll be a big factor plus they have a more continental climate than us and it is hundreds of miles in land so less mixing of the air from the milder sea from the Med or Atlantic also this is unlike what we have from the Irish and North sea as the farthest you can get from the sea here is only 70 miles.

Having lived there, I’ve experienced the difficulty of getting precipitation to the city or cold south of the mountains to the north but the trough over Iberia which will prop up our high over the weekend looks like helping with snowfall on this occasion.

Back home I’m trying to work out what will be of any snowfall on Friday. If we do scrape a dusting, the weekend could be very cold under the surface high before the defrost begins next week.

[Anthony Burden]

1 minute ago, Mark Parsons said:

Time and time again tasty synoptics that are mouth watering crop up and nearly always get watered down nearer the time, surely there are lessons to be learnt from this trend within the computer models just the same as global weather patterns follow trends........if we see -20 850 uppers 10 days out we end up with -10 uppers and so on! Sorry to scupper the excitement, however having a realistic view is much easier in my opinion.

It’s called weather.

[Scott Ingham]

31 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

We have high pressure slap bang over the Azores at 144-168h. Strangy enough this is quite a common pre-SSW response pattern. 

Yes all very subtoe the changes.

It will be one of these times a cold spell feels like its ghosted in

[XtremeUKWeather]

Fairly good ECM mean , need to monitor this high pressure nudge north on all models in coming days

[Daniel*]

The wheels do go off the bus after day 8 for as far as eye can see with unsettled westerly flow but there is an appetite there for ridging to nose to our north. Interested to see this evolves in days to come. Might it be enough to stop the onslaught? And with the very cold air to east. Well a lot to watch.

[Ruzzi]

24 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Time and time again tasty synoptics that are mouth watering crop up and nearly always get watered down nearer the time, surely there are lessons to be learnt from this trend within the computer models just the same as global weather patterns follow trends........if we see -20 850 uppers 10 days out we end up with -10 uppers and so on! Sorry to scupper the excitement, however having a realistic view is much easier in my opinion.

No, a realistic view would be to monitor it with an open mind as it can go either way.... This spell we're in just now started with uppers showing as - 5C and as it got closer, got down to -9, -10.

Also, the BFTE in 2018 didn't start off by showing -40 uppers 150 miles to our east!

Your view is pessimistic, not realistic. 

Seems there will be a lot of model volatility over the next couple of days however the day 10 trend, as previously mentioned, fits in with a few of the more knowledgeable poster's thoughts of what may be expected. Definitely one for the watching and interesting viewing to come over the next few days to see if it develops 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Ruzzi

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To have any confidence at all in the ECM op, we certainly need the EPS mean to resemble it a lot more than the GEFS mean does, thats a fact.

looks like one of those scenarios where an easterly can pop up at short notice IMO. Ensembles won't see it before the op.

[Ventnor Viking]

20 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Time and time again tasty synoptics that are mouth watering crop up and nearly always get watered down nearer the time, surely there are lessons to be learnt from this trend within the computer models just the same as global weather patterns follow trends........if we see -20 850 uppers 10 days out we end up with -10 uppers and so on! Sorry to scupper the excitement, however having a realistic view is much easier in my opinion.

Definitely, it happens nearly all the time. 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

looks like one of those scenarios where an easterly can pop up at short notice IMO. Ensembles won't see it before the op.

Pops up at D8 then vanishes at D4. Wouldn't be all that surprising.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You may at first glance assume the ECM op was a cold outlier,I'm not so sure,there is a fair amount of spread...even through next week..wouldn't be surprised to see a trending colder as we move through the week..I've chucked in another couple of 12z GFS ens to boot...just to froth the mouth up a bit..

Edited January 5, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[IDO]

Sadly we have to wait to see a few more ecm run before we can ever take a d10 chart seriously in this setup. Its propensity to troll and hype cold is one of the great pleasures of our winter model viewing. The means suggest the op is doing its bit for morale rather than being representative:

ecm and gfs d10 means and we can see the trend. The ecm op a clear outlier for London as early as d8 (500hPa) and an outlier for uppers by d10!

It does look like the initial cold will drop to our east and maybe the UK can get some scraps. Certainly we will have to wait for the pattern to establish and then move more favourably, so a waiting game based on current output. 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

looks like one of those scenarios where an easterly can pop up at short notice IMO. Ensembles won't see it before the op.

I have to say i have never ever seen an Easterly pop up at short notice on ops without any ensemble signposting of it in all my years, so not sure why it would happen now although to be fair we have seen some members already shown one but not enough yet, not enough showing a potent one anyway.

[sebastiaan1973]

31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

looks like one of those scenarios where an easterly can pop up at short notice IMO. Ensembles won't see it before the op.

Perhaps. Just guessing, in this case the higher resolution, more vertical layers in the EC-oper can make a difference.

Edited January 5, 2021 by sebastiaan1973
fault grammatica

[Mark Parsons]

16 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

No, a realistic view would be to monitor it with an open mind as it can go either way.... This spell we're in just now started with uppers showing as - 5C and as it got closer, got down to -9, -10.

Also, the BFTE in 2018 didn't start off by showing -40 uppers 150 miles to our east!

Your view is pessimistic, not realistic. 

Seems there will be a lot of model volatility over the next couple of days however the day 10 trend, as previously mentioned, fits in with a few of the more knowledgeable poster's thoughts of what may be expected. Definitely one for the watching and interesting viewing to come over the next few days to see if it develops 

There is no pessimism intended in my comment although I omitted to say, "open minded", because this was the thought I was trying  to explain , realistic is balanced as is being open minded, que sere sere..........