Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Griff]

One question, where was everyone until right at the end? 

Significant changes early on, make what you will. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

2 Day 10 charts to keep and review. All in all a good evening.

 

The BFTE Feb 2018 was forecast 10 days out on the charts so very promising without getting carried away

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Is this what you envisaged in your prophesy BA?

Surely there’s no way that ridge would gain that kind of northward traction with the MJO in phase 3 without some semblance of downwelling?

Then again, the Jan phase 3 Nina composite does perhaps allow for a trough stalling to the west...

Combine this with aforementioned downwelling and the hints of that ridge on other models... perhaps we can give this day 10 EC slightly more credence than usual???

 

Please can you show phases 4 and 5?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Mean charts are overrated. 

They are in terms of predicting what will happen but can be useful for predicting what most definitely wont, and usually in the UK that means anything resembling a pasting.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

One question, where was everyone until right at the end? 

Significant changes early on, make what you will. 

We are all watching quietly  and waiting to get to 144hrs.

[Anthony Burden]

Well the latest ECM is no surprise to me high pressure pushing north and looking like the

first glimpse of SSW that every body has been waiting for.Icon 180 hrs chart was giving the 

first insight let’s see what materialises,most had chucked their hats into the ring time to put it 

back on.

[Scott Ingham]

25 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I don't like it as much as the para, but it has a similar theme.

Its similar to how the ssw in feb 18 starting to get modelled

[Guest]

Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM looks like a SSW response? Sudden reduction in North Atlantic zonal component?

It's a pity we cannot see the strat data right away. But the theory that quick changes in the output would appear after the technical SSW happened, seems to get confirmation again.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

Possibly spain seriously it's 10 days away but with any undercutting could bring an easterly 

Edited January 5, 2021 by swfc

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

It's a pity we cannot see the strat data right away. But the theory that quick changes in the output would appear after the technical SSW happened, seems to get confirmation again.

Model latency is key. 00z now loaded with interest.

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM looks like a SSW response? Sudden reduction in North Atlantic zonal component?

It cant be theres no chance of this ssw turning us cold. I read it on netweather!

Haha

Jokes aside id take getting to this point on the 15th crammed full of potential and real cold on the continent this time

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Is this what you envisaged in your prophesy BA?

To a degree - basically big NH amplification (which has shown on extended ops today).  Dont be surprised to see it different tomorrow morning and then to re surface within a couple runs ...

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its similar to how the ssw in feb 18 starting to get modelled

That's what's worrying me, Scott... if I remember rightly, 2019's SSW-related BFTE was also modelled well in advance? Now, where did I leave those briquettes!?

The weather can make eejits out of us all?

Edited January 5, 2021 by General Cluster

[That ECM]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To have any confidence at all in the ECM op, we certainly need the EPS mean to resemble it a lot more than the GEFS mean does, thats a fact.

I agree, we have seen them flip but would be good to see them resemble the t240 ecm. Gfs has two opportunities prior to next ecm. I think you would still have raised an eyebrow at the ecm tho.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

It cant be theres no chance of this ssw turning us cold. I read it on netweather!

Haha

Jokes aside id take getting to this point on the 15th crammed full of potential and real cold on the continent this time

We have high pressure slap bang over the Azores at 144-168h. Strangy enough this is quite a common pre-SSW response pattern. 

[Vikos]

 

Sweet lord of mercy, let it happen... a -16°C is surley good for at least a bit of wet sleet

[Pembroke Dangler]

6 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

Allow the arrows to guide you, there’s no way that high will fall back into the med as long as the low (Black line heads to Italy then the high (red arrow) moves to Scandi and voila the beast comes along the blue arrow. At least that’s how I see the 48 hours following. 

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Wonder where that high pressure would end up 48 hrs on ?

Over Canada and  a western based -ao.

[Nick F]

That day 10 from 12z EC has Beast From The East potential written all over it days 11 onwards, pity it's day 10 ...

Have no fear when you see a ridge build north over western Europe, when there's deep cold vortex dropping SE over Scandi/eastern Europe and trough stalling out west in the Atlantic, it's the classic empirical route to a Scandi high.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Nick F

[Mr Frost]

This current cold spell really is quite impressive - certainly from a below average temperatures point of view.

Still plenty of cold days/nights ahead right through to Sunday.

Few UKV predicted temperature snapshots:

Wednesday 03:00 - tiny shades of purple showing there...-14C possible in the North West Highlands. 

 

Thursday 03:00

 

Friday 03:00

 

Saturday 03:00

 

Sunday 03:00

 

Our lowest temperature of Winter so far was -10.2C in Dalwhinnie.

That could be smashed overnight with a -12 to -14C up in the North West Highlands - one to keep an eye on. 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Mr Frost

[steveinsussex]

12 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Well the latest ECM is no surprise to me high pressure pushing north and looking like the

first glimpse of SSW that every body has been waiting for.Icon 180 hrs chart was giving the 

first insight let’s see what materialises,most had chucked their hats into the ring time to put it 

back on.

But the ssw reaction wouldn’t yet be showing in the models. It’s going to take at least 14 days or so to show

[ICE COLD]

13 minutes ago, Griff said:

One question, where was everyone until right at the end? 

Significant changes early on, make what you will. 

I’m watching Mr Griff . ECM and GFS// are trending in a good way . I’m just a bit gutted with the way the models went titts up the last few days but today’s a new day . All aboard the Siberian train .

[blizzard81]

8 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

There are signs of that gap to our north gaining traction now. A parting of the waves with the main section of the pv on the Siberian side. 

I knew it wouldn't take long for the ecm to latch on. Jan 47 revisited. 

[Catacol]

Been very busy but wasn’t a bad time to be away for a couple of days. Call a spade a spade - got next week wrong. Thought amplification would see off the impact of the displacing vortex given such weak westerly winds, but once again we see the potency of Atlantic influence. Never ever to be underestimated.

The vortex splits in the mid strat and as we knew was possible one daughter vortex lands in the Atlantic. The hope had been it might be further west...but no....

and lower down on the boundary the Atlantic ridge is flattened by the pressure.

But note the troughing signal still over Europe, and the upstream ongoing amplification that is still wanting to throw up wave breaks. The next surge (what a pacific jet we have had so far this season!) kicks in as previously advertised around 9th Jan

and so as soon as the vortex energy moves away ridging is likely to resume in the North Atlantic. A few days later the vortex has been further stretched and remains split with the forecast this time firmly on a deeper Asian trough and a weaker Canadian residual daughter. Door wide open to pacific inspired wave break ridging.

Tonights ECM shows the ridging that we would expect. 

By calling next week incorrectly the hopes of a historic January have gone. But back to the original thought of the deepest cold in the heart of winter we may yet pull a significant spell of wintry impacts at the back end of the month. Speed of vortex recovery or the potential for more vortex disruption beginning to be signposted later in the month will determine whether February can also deliver the goods. Deep down a bit disappointed - but as ever optimistic that drivers can align and cold can come.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Catacol