Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Same developments across all models. Different on details, but general trends are similar, which is very encouraging.
Far from negative for cold. Better than previously I'd say, when there was no low in North America and that Russian High.

Is the JMA onboard?

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Everyone’s saying it’s going to be a mild spell but judging by this latest ECM and para, that mild spell seems to be lasting what, 2/3 days max?

If it will even come to that....

[Zak M]

Here she comes!

@240

PS - this is a day ten chart - so don't take it too literally!

Edited January 5, 2021 by Zak M

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come on folks get behind the SSW..its ours...America can go and jump,they have had enough...some of those ens are dropping the vortex into Scandy...more Stella runs to come over the next few days.. Things can only get better...as the song goes

Keep the faith or I will get angry..

Edited January 5, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Matt H]

So close...

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

Here she comes!

@240

Are the floodgates about to open?

[ALL ABOARD]

Oh go on then... 

 

Clear signs of the downwelling now... 

Should see it start to become more evident on future runs now... 

Edited January 5, 2021 by ALL ABOARD
Missed a word

[Griff]

Someone on my blocked list will complain... 

[Cold Winter Night]

Some mild Siberian air coming at us.

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Here she comes!

@240

PS - this is a day ten chart - so don't take it too literally!

Yes it's a D10 chart and we are all aware of the caveats. However, this pattern isn't far off what recent output has been projected. It is essentially the ICON / GFS with a weaker zonal signal.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Methuselah]

Isn't that Australopithecus? 

[winterof79]

[That ECM]

2 Day 10 charts to keep and review. All in all a good evening.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by That ECM

[feb1991blizzard]

To have any confidence at all in the ECM op, we certainly need the EPS mean to resemble it a lot more than the GEFS mean does, thats a fact.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Frosty Winter said:

So close...

You can see why the met office are reluctant to call it one way or other, it's a knife edge.  I'm hoping with the MJO progression and 2nd and possibly 3rd warming it will be enough to tip the balance in our favour past mid month!

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Someone on my blocked list will complain... 

To be fair though, the uppers aren't great

[chionomaniac]

Will be interesting to see the ECM strat charts tomorrow. I did expect this kind of amplification slightly earlier though. Certainly keeps those who think winter is finished biting their nails, whilst mine grow longer.

[SLEETY]

Sometimes with easterly outbreaks you need a couple of attempts before you get the mega_cold one in, a certain famous cold spell had that before it became mega cold and snowy for almost two months!! 

So this week looking like the starter before the mega cold easterly arrives. 

The cold pool growing ever bigger,. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by SLEETY

[Scandinavian High.]

Very exciting cold is wanting to pounce.. from the east 

D3701112-6E88-4062-B41F-672000862048.webp

[Uncertainty]

19 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Plenty of signs that tomorrow’s extended output will be of interest ...... it may not come to anything but at least we may have some nice stuff to look at on the screen ! 

Is this what you envisaged in your prophesy BA?

Surely there’s no way that ridge would gain that kind of northward traction with the MJO in phase 3 without some semblance of downwelling?

Then again, the Jan phase 3 Nina composite does perhaps allow for a trough stalling to the west...

Combine this with aforementioned downwelling and the hints of that ridge on other models... perhaps we can give this day 10 EC slightly more credence than usual???

 

[O'Maille80]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To have any confidence at all in the ECM op, we certainly need the EPS mean to resemble it a lot more than the GEFS mean does, thats a fact.

Mean charts are overrated. 

[Mark Parsons]

5 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Some mild Siberian air coming at us.

That chart doesn't leave much for the imagination lol........

 

[Kasim Awan]

ECM looks like a SSW response? Sudden reduction in North Atlantic zonal component?

[Man With Beard]

ECM D10 chart: might just be the right side of marginal if we got an easterly

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes it's a D10 chart and we are all aware of the caveats. However, this pattern isn't far off what recent output has been projected. It is essentially the ICON / GFS with a weaker zonal signal.

Don't forget the GFSP. If reality ends up looking like this, GFSP has been the most consistent in modelling this.