Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Will be a dusting at best. The Highlands and southern uplands will eat most of it up, to be finally finished of by the dales..

Not sure about this. It's a trough, not a showery feed.

[Continental Climate]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You couldn't make it up, genuine frigid air, blizzards practically as far as the deep South of America while air approaching -32 (way colder than the North pole about to go over the great lakes of Northern USA.

Yep record breaking cold for the yanks. Literally killing temperatures if that were to come off. Whilst we would be stuck with +13c South westerly zephyrs. 

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

Yep record breaking cold for the yanks. Literally killing temperatures if that were to come off. Whilst we would be stuck with +13c South westerly zephyrs. 

Yep, now you just watch these lala land fantasy charts tick down seemlessly to T0. Just because it's the states  

[TSNWK]

37 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The period 20th - 30th is fast becoming a period of interest. There are certainly signs now of modlling picking up on goings on at the top of the atmosphere.

I feel this weekends models runs could perk up some more interest again.

The period around 200 hours is certainly peaking my interest with a potential cross polar flow developing although it is only tentative signs atm

Hello Scott! I really want to go along with this, as I’m sure are others.

 

Can you help me out on it please? as all I’m seeing at present are signs pointing towards this SSW being a miss for our part of the world – we are not talking one rouge operational that was screwed by a random Short-wave we are talking whole-sale changes to the Macro pattern coming into the models from the turn of the year.

 

EC46 from last night.

MO update ( Glosea I presume ) backing away from sustained cold in long range.

GFS Ensembles – the latest being a case in point to me with two things in particular telling to me – the steady, not bumpy increase in temputures and the  fact the even the very best ensemble member at day 14 only got to -9 you would think if there was any inkling of something afoot that we would at least be blessed with some stonking ensemble to view.

 

Things took a turn for the worse for Coldies pretty much as the SSW came into reality and became factored as actual starting data – I don’t believe SSW shuffling the pack has ever been  in question, but do we also need to start accepting that with the info we have to hand, along with the trends that on this occasion when the music stops from the SSW we in the UK are going to be left without a cold chair.

 

Thank you

Edited January 5, 2021 by TSNWK

[XtremeUKWeather]

Yes i know i shouldn't be comparing to 2018 but i noticed these similarities , with some differences in the NH profile , but i wanted to point out the high pushing north from UK on GFS para today

This may be useless, what do you guys think?

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Just like this...

07/01 00:00...going...

 

09:00...going...

 

12:00...almost gone...

 

As @Kasim Awan mentioned though  could squeeze out a centimetre or two in parts of NW England - obviously another wee nowcasting/radar/looking out the window special.

This is because the UKMO makes much less of the trough, not because the set up itself can not deliver. I wouldn't completely disregard the risk of the GFS/ICON being closer to the mark.

[bluearmy]

38 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The period 20th - 30th is fast becoming a period of interest. There are certainly signs now of modlling picking up on goings on at the top of the atmosphere.

I feel this weekends models runs could perk up some more interest again.

The period around 200 hours is certainly peaking my interest with a potential cross polar flow developing although it is only tentative signs atm

I rather hope it will be long before the weekend .........if it’s not until the weekend then I think the train will be further delayed to the back end of the month ......

[Kasim Awan]

I would keep an eye on the 500mb heights modelled for 48-72h as the trough passes over the UK. Ideally these need to be pretty strong (near 530mb at 500hpa).

[Kasim Awan]

ECM > UKMO.

[jayb1989]

33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Writing has been on the wall for a few days now for a warm up, this is as conclusive as it gets. 

Must now look to the SSW to start taking effect, although no guarantee that will yield any cold for the UK.

Hopefully things change within the next 2-3 weeks while we still have some proper winter left or it will soon be time to start dusting down the BBQ.

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ECM > UKMO.

Similar to my eyes? Maybe that's the point I don't know as no commentary to explain

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello Scott! I really want to go along with this, as I’m sure are others.

 

Can you help me out on it please? as all I’m seeing at present are signs pointing towards this SSW being a miss for our part of the world – we are not talking one rouge operational that was screwed by a random Short-wave we are talking whole-sale changes to the Macro pattern coming into the models from the turn of the year.

 

EC46 from last night.

MO update ( Glosea I presume ) backing away from sustained cold in long range.

GFS Ensembles – the latest being a case in point to me with two things in particular telling to me – the steady, not bumpy increase in temputures and the  fact the even the very best ensemble member at day 14 only got to -9 you would think if there was any inkling of something afoot that we would at least be blessed with some stonking ensemble to view.

 

Things took a turn for the worse for Coldies pretty much as the SSW came into reality and became factored as actual starting data – I don’t SSW shuffling the pack has even be in question, but do we also need to start accepting that with the info we have to hand, along with the trends that on this occasion when the music stops from the SSW we in the UK are going to be left without a cold chair.

 

Thank you

Ill answer this very simply.

Firstly.

My post has been taking out of context

"The period 20th - 30th is fast becoming a period of interest. There are certainly signs now of modlling picking up on goings on at the top of the atmosphere"

Where did i mention sustained cold?

I said it was an "interesting" period to watch.

Secondly

We are at the stage of this ssw where not one person as yet knows where the jigsaw pieces will fit. This period i talk about is "interesting" from a weather enthusiasts point of view to help us unravel what may go on. Its wrong without question to say we will be on the wrong side of the ssw as it is equally wrong to scream sustained cold.

Om twitter we have a 50/50 split on what ground conditions will be. This sums up where we are.

Thirdly

The met speak of heavy significant snow from this period with winds coming from a very cold scandinavia with it being milder the further south you go.

4thly

In a volatile situation created from a ssw taking emsembles from a particular run of a day is pointless. In this situation these can flip both ways in a matter of runs at day 14.

Making sweeping statements about us being left without a cold chair scientifically im a period like this isnt necessary.

What is is taking a balanced armchair view. Enjoying this fascinating period as it evolves on a daily basis.

Reading one or two people discuss trends not going our way doesnt constitute certainty and spin doesnt help it creates diversity and takes away the enjoyment of being on a place like this during lockdown.

Wait and see or risk having egg on the face

 

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Similar to my eyes? Maybe that's the point I don't know as no commentary to explain

Slightly better trough development over the UK which improves any precipitation. So whilst the UKMO with it's very weak trough is a little isolated here, this doesn't rule it out. Just need to keep watching.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Scott Ingham]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I rather hope it will be long before the weekend .........if it’s not until the weekend then I think the train will be further delayed to the back end of the month ......

Fingers crossed but at 11/12 days away i would suggest it still being within an envelope for change although you would hope to see signs on clusters means and ensembles before then

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Similar to my eyes? Maybe that's the point I don't know as no commentary to explain

Slight differences but perhaps huge differences to the weather locally? ECM still looks similar to the GFS that might pep up the front heading southwards as it waves whilst the UKMO on the face of it looks drier but colder. 

No doubt its going to turn less cold but let's be honest, has anyone actually enjoyed this easterly wind? I certainly havant and be glad too see the back of it.

[Griff]

Ecm more amplified than 24 hours ago, what was this morning's run like? 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Griff

[Frigid]

Surprisingly, the capital of Spain, Madrid will be a lot colder than here in the UK with lows forecasted to be around -8, and a lot snowier. Could get a bit of snow in the north of the country on Thursday tho. Afterwards, its the usual wet, cool weather we normally get.

[Penicuikblizzard]

35 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

Yep record breaking cold for the yanks. Literally killing temperatures if that were to come off. Whilst we would be stuck with +13c South westerly zephyrs. 

Similar to last year America had record breaking cold whilst we were very mild could be a repeat performance

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Ecm more amplified than 24 hours ago, what was this morning's run like? 

Starting to look GFSP like... 

[topo]

I would say closer to GEM

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, topo said:

I would say closer to GEM

Hadn't occurred for me to check

Yes, low to North is closer, further south. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Griff

[Hotspur62]

7 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Surprisingly, the capital of Spain, Madrid will be a lot colder than here in the UK with lows forecasted to be around -8, and a lot snowier. Could get a bit of snow in the north of the country on Thursday tho. Afterwards, its the usual wet, cool weather we normally get.

Maybe elevation a factor re Madrid as it is 2200 ft asl?

[Griff]

Far more interesting than Spain's weather  

[Sweatyman]

15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Slight differences but perhaps huge differences to the weather locally? ECM still looks similar to the GFS that might pep up the front heading southwards as it waves whilst the UKMO on the face of it looks drier but colder. 

No doubt its going to turn less cold but let's be honest, has anyone actually enjoyed this easterly wind? I certainly havant and be glad too see the back of it.

No not really apart from 45 minutes lol!

[Singularity]

Models are trying to resolve the impact of a fairly narrow area of zonal deceleration / ridge promotion in the North Atlantic not far to our west/northwest, come mid-month.

It sits between the main vortex displaced over Eurasia and a small secondary one over the western North Atlantic or eastern Canada.

The situation reminds me of mid-Jan 2013, when a small wedge of high pressure disrupted a low which then produced a snow event for parts of southern UK.

This time, though, the SSW is much stronger and there are signs that the secondary polar vortex may dissipate by about a fortnight’s time, such that high pressure becomes favoured Iceland westward with a deep trough over much of Eurasia. An interesting proposal.