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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


bluearmy
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

It was around this juncture on the GFS// 06z that an area of high pressure moved from the North Pacific straight through the pole to Greenland.

An Eastward shift but it will still go on its travels and try to link with ours

image.thumb.png.68959503cc94e4c94019bc4421b68be5.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Looks like the control is picking up on the Heighths early doors. Be interesting to see what ec 12z does shortly. Frustrating atm the but have to say getting interesting be it all subject to massive swings

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

An Eastward shift but it will still go on its travels and try to link with ours

image.thumb.png.68959503cc94e4c94019bc4421b68be5.png

The OP goes for it this time

image.thumb.png.9142f3ece5c936de621fba80ebb8ff98.png

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Yanks getting pummelled with day after tomorrow charts, No wonder they don't believe in global warming their winters are as cold as they've ever been!

 

image.thumb.png.d576856daf84d3234c976e9a0edfc6e3.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

Yanks getting pummelled with day after tomorrow charts, No wonder they don't believe in global warming their winters are as cold as they've ever been!

 

image.thumb.png.d576856daf84d3234c976e9a0edfc6e3.png

Not sure it will end up as it’s showing there. They’ve actually had a fairly benign winter so far. 

All the very potent cold is still over the Siberia area. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

PV lobe drops into CONUS, temp differential kicks the Jet Stream into overdrive, we get clobbered by low after low.

I would take a little kicking for how that's shaping up

anim_rqw8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Yanks getting pummelled with day after tomorrow charts, No wonder they don't believe in global warming their winters are as cold as they've ever been!

 

image.thumb.png.d576856daf84d3234c976e9a0edfc6e3.png

You couldn't make it up, genuine frigid air, blizzards practically as far as the deep South of America while air approaching -32 (way colder than the North pole about to go over the great lakes of Northern USA.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

I would take a little kicking for how that's shaping up

anim_rqw8.gif

No you don't, that is an extreme west based NAO, and all we will get is storm after storm. That high will rotate over the top of the Canada with the jet pointing to the north of us if it went on.

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Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton

The last frame is a redux of 2019 , the daughter vortices ended up exactly where we didn’t want and triggered endless lows via temp gradient 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

No you don't, that is an extreme west based NAO, and all we will get is storm after storm. That high will rotate over the top of the Canada with the jet pointing to the north of us if it went on.

Well we will  never know will we?

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

The OP goes for it this time

image.thumb.png.9142f3ece5c936de621fba80ebb8ff98.png

Now thats an Omega/Greenland high, incoming!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Okay then (and I know that t+384 charts are about as much use as Katy Price's applications to MENSA) but there's still bugger all, at Day 16!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

The period 20th - 30th is fast becoming a period of interest. There are certainly signs now of modlling picking up on goings on at the top of the atmosphere.

I feel this weekends models runs could perk up some more interest again.

The period around 200 hours is certainly peaking my interest with a potential cross polar flow developing although it is only tentative signs atm

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You couldn't make it up, genuine frigid air, blizzards practically as far as the deep South of America while air approaching -32 (way colder than the North pole about to go over the great lakes of Northern USA.

Always the same every year. Never ever go without...EVER!

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Wrf showing a good few hours of snow overnight into Friday. Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester take note.

nmmuk-1-63-0.png

Will be a dusting at best. The Highlands and southern uplands will eat most of it up, to be finally finished off by the dales..

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

You just know this SSW is going to benefit the states, they've had a real lack of cold so far this winter. The deep cold will head straight for North America, fire up the jet stream and give us a soaking as always. Seriously hope I'm wrong, but you just get that feeling!

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