Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards


bluearmy
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Without the secondary low in the Atlantic its very close for the low moving south east and pulling in some very cold air ie 210  hours granted.. 

Edited by swfc
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

I think we will struggle to stop the westerly momentum in the next 7- 10days, with the MJO and la Nina forcing, after this period is where the interest lies.

I am interested in what the para goes onto to show past day 9, will it show the SSW winning out against these teleconnections. It was a close call in the earlier run.

Marco has hinted that they are unsure what will prevail. Knowing the UK luck the deep cold will grind to a halt in the Netherlands.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, swfc said:

Without the secondary low in the Atlantic its very close for the low moving south east and pulling in some very cold air ie 210 granted.. 

Looks very cold to the north heading slowly down, if it were to ever happen of course. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I think we will struggle to stop the westerly momentum in the next 7- 10days, with the MJO and la Nina forcing, after this period is where the interest lies.

I am interested in what the para goes onto to show past day 9, will it show the SSW winning out against these teleconnections. It was a close call in the earlier run.

Marco has hinted that they are unsure what will prevail. Knowing the UK luck the deep cold will grind to a halt in the Netherlands.

 

 yep we prob end up with the AZH on top of us and the -16 850 50 miles in the north sea off the kent coast !!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, warrenb said:

I hate to say this, but no cold air, it is over Asia side. Japan looks to get clobbered again.

At the moment, yes, but as the SSW impacts the cold air will move Westwards (hopefully)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just an indicator of what’s going on higher up and now dripping down into the modelling as it sees things a little clearer is visible on gfs post day 8. Up until yesterday’s 18z, we saw a vortex extension from Asia to Canada which prevented any meaningful cross polar amplification across the NH ......the 18z broke that vortex by T300 and now two runs later we see something way more interesting 

image.thumb.png.f96fc1d0e76f4ad08210ab07de14bb52.png

Would I be right in saying that's the mother vortex on our side and a daughter vortex in the North American side??

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

UKMO looking very alone it must be said. ICON both GFS runs and the GEM all looking similar to each other. NAVGEM closest to the UKMO.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

GFSP has been on the money and consistent for days now while all the other models have been switching and swapping around. Maybe just maybe it’s pulling it out the bag!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

GFSP has been on the money and consistent for days now while all the other models have been switching and swapping around. Maybe just maybe it’s pulling it out the bag!

Agreed, both scenarios had occurred to me. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
4 minutes ago, sundog said:

Would I be right in saying that's the mother vortex on our side and a daughter vortex in the North American side??

Maybe its the Big Daddy?

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Just now, Griff said:

Agreed, both scenarios had occurred to me. 

Don’t wanna jinx it mate but it has been looking the best and it has shown it consistently.. It’s either very right or very wrong. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I hate that idiot with the wizard hat on .Always spoils everything.

image.thumb.png.b564ff69949143202e41bb0cf7c8545f.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
15 minutes ago, southbank said:

 yep we prob end up with the AZH on top of us and the -16 850 50 miles in the north sea off the kent coast !!!!

Can't offer you -16, but will you take -6?

Edit: it's so close to a special run here, like earlier

gfsnh-1-210 (2).png

Edited by Battleground Snow
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Watch for fireworks?  

 

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Don’t wanna jinx it mate but it has been looking the best and it has shown it consistently.. It’s either very right or very wrong. 

Of course it's going to leave us on the mild side just to teach us respect this time... All just for fun. 

More curious about changes in icon etc vs ukmo early on. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

It was around this juncture on the GFS// 06z that an area of high pressure moved from the North Pacific straight through the pole to Greenland.

Edited by winterof79
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Just now, Griff said:

 

Of course it's going to leave us on the mild side just to teach us respect this time... All just for fun. 

More curious about changes in icon etc vs ukmo early on. 

Leaves us on the mild side this time but with the SSW and the colder uppers hopefully shifting west, you never know. Things could change, and fast. I doubt the models have been taken into account the SSW yet it only happened yesterday!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just an indicator of what’s going on higher up and now dripping down into the modelling as it sees things a little clearer is visible on gfs post day 8. Up until yesterday’s 18z, we saw a vortex extension from Asia to Canada which prevented any meaningful cross polar amplification across the NH ......the 18z broke that vortex by T300 and now two runs later we see something way more interesting 

image.thumb.png.f96fc1d0e76f4ad08210ab07de14bb52.png

Yup. Glad to see that the first round of 12Z's didn't leave me looking like a fool with my 'still positive trends' comment earlier today

They are still alive: Hudson Low, Arctic High, Iceland High, Russia heights disappearing.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...